The campaign experts agree - Allen is in deep trouble. First, the folks at CQ have finally changed their rating of the race, downgrading Allen's chances:CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the Virginia Senate race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.The declining fortunes of first-term Republican Sen. George Allen, who began this campaign as an almost prohibitive favorite for re-election, have turned his contest with unexpectedly strong Democratic nominee Jim Webb into a tossup.
Next up, Robert Novak (yes, that Novak). As Lowell noted earlier, the conservative columnist has rated this race in Webb's favor! But I'll bring this up again to highlight the best part of the analysis:
Sen. George Allen (R) was always the favorite in this race, but now he's gotten his own hands too dirty in what is by far the dirtiest Senate race of 2006. He has let this race devolve from a serious campaign into a circus campaign, which runs on personal attacks and lacks any debate or discussion of issues.....[T]he final blow to any seriousness in this race was Allen's criticism last week of the disturbing and racy scenes in Webb's novels.
We believe that this attack may be backfiring against Allen and that the effects are being seen in the latest polls, both of which have Webb leading. It is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign. We see here shades of the same miscalculations made by Jerry Kilgore (R) as he lost to Gov. Tim Kaine (D) last year after running highly negative ads that backfired.
George Allen, once a leading candidate for President, is on the verge of losing his Senate seat, and possibly Republican control of the Senate. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
But the best part: blaming Allen for turning this into a "circus campaign"! Already rated the worst campaing in America, I guess it's time to add a clown costume to Allen's closet.