Charlie Cook's National Overview" "There Is No Ebb In The Wave," October 30, 2006
With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.
Do More Than Vote! More below
Charlie Cook's National Overview:
If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.
The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.
In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.
This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.
From Andy Hurst's Events page:November 3-7: Election Day Push
If you can give anytime between Friday, November 3rd and Tuesday, November 7th to help get Andy and Jim elected please join us. Team Hurst will be going around the clock and will need as much help as possible.To join Team Hurst and help please contact Mike Burns at mike@hurstforcongress.com or call 703-455-1014 (weekday) or 302-897-2710(weekend) for more information.
November 4th: GOTV Lit Drops
What: Help turn out the vote with Andy Hurst and Jim Webb with lit drops in Fairfax County!
Where and When: Saturday, November 4thFirst Shift: 10AM at Centreville Adult Education Center, 5775 Spindle Ct., Centreville, 20121
Second Shift:12PM at Hurst for Congress Headquarters, 11198 Lee Highway, Fairfax, 22030.
Third Shift: 3PM at Hurst for Congress Headquarters, 11198 Lee Highway, Fairfax, 22030.
E-mail Mike Burns at mike@hurstforcongress.com with any questions. See you out there!
November 5th: GOTV Lit Drops
What: Come out and help Andy Hurst and Jim Webb turn out the vote in Fairfax County!
When and Where: 12PM and 3PM at Orange Hunt Elementary School, 6820 Sydenstricker Rd., Springfield, 22153.
E-mail Mike Burns at mike@hurstforcongress.com for directions.
November 4th and 5th: Prince William GOTV Lit Drops and Phone Banks
What: Help Andy Hurst and Jim Webb get out the vote in Prince Wiliam County on Election Day Weekend! We'll be dropping literature and making phone calls all weekend.
When: Saturday, November 4th, at 10AM and Sunday, November 5th, 12PM
Where: Prince William County Democratic Headquarters, 4326 Dale Blvd, Woodbridge 22193.
November 6th: Prince William GOTV Effort
What: Lit Dropping during the day, GOTV phone banking from 5PM-9PM.
When: All day, Monday, November 6th, 2006
Where: Prince William County Democratic Headquarters, 4326 Dale Blvd., Woodbridge, 22193.
Contact Jane Touchet at jane@hurstforcongress.com with any questions.