Hackett/Ohio: What it Means for Virginia
By: Lowell
Published On: 8/3/2005 1:00:00 AM
True, Paul Hackett (D) ended up losing to Jean Schmidt (R) yesterday. And true, Ohio is not Virginia. However, I say that Hackett's extremely narrow (52%-48%) loss to Schmidt, in a Congressional district that went heavily for President Bush in November 2004 -- more than any Virginia Congressional district, by the way) -- is great news for Democrats in Virginia, and nationwide for that matter. Here's what national political analyst Charlie Cook wrote yesterday, before the returns were in:
A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.
As it turns out, Schmidt eaked out a win by just 4,000 votes out of 114,186 cast, coming perilously close to Charlie Cook's "devastating blow" territory. In doing so, Schmidt managed to lose four counties - Adams, Brown, Pike, and Scioto - all of which went for Bush over Kerry in 2004. The turnaround was amazing. In Adams, Hackett won 52%-48% in a county that Kerry lost 64%-36%; that represents a swing to the Democrats of 32 points (-28 to +4) in less than a year. In Brown, it was even a GREATER swing, from 64%-36% for Bush to 56%-44% for Hackett. That's a gain of 40 points (-28 to +12) for the Democrats! In Pike County, the swing away from the Republicans was 30 points (-4 to +26), and in Scioto it was 34 points (-4 to +30). Wow.
So how did Schmidt win? Basically, she won her home county of Clermont by nearly 5,000 votes (58%-42%). That's 1,000 votes more than the margin of victory right there. By the way, Schmidt's performance in Clermont came in a county that went 71%-29% for Bush (a 37,000-vote margin!) in November 2004, so this also represents an enormous gain for the Democrats -- and a huge loss for the Republicans. In Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnatti, Hackett barely lost (51%-49%) in a place where Bush won 53%-47%. Finally, in Warren County, Hackett lost by 16 points (58%-42%), but that's not bad at all when you consider that Bush won that county by 44 points (72%-28%) in 2004.
In other words, Paul Hackett lost by a slim margin yesterday, basically because Jean Schmidt won her home county by 5,000 votes. Overall, however, the Democrats racked up HUGE gains in a very conservative part of Ohio. They did this because of a combination of several factors. First, Jean Schmidt was not a particularly strong candidate. Second, Paul Hackett was a tremendously appealing candidate, an Iraq War veteran who motivated core Democrats but also cut across party lines. And finally, this vote appears to have been, at least in part, a referendum on the failed economic and foreign policies of the Republicans nationally, not to mention their focus on extremely controversial issues like the Terry Schiavo case.
So what does this mean for Virginia's elections in just a few months from now? Sure, the two states are different, but yesterday's Ohio results were unmistakeably a GREAT sign for Democrats' chances in Virginia this November. In Ohio yesterday, the enormous swings (20, 30, even 40 points) away from the Republicans and towards the Democrats were so astonishing that they could not have been flukes. No doubt, the candidates had something to do with it, and Jean Schmidt was a very weak candidate compared to Paul Hackett. However, this should provide little comfort to Jerry Kilgore, an extremely weak candidate himself. Then, the fact is that the issues facing Virginians -- the economy, taxes, health care, education, Iraq -- are the same ones that faced voters in southwestern Ohio yesterday. And look what happened there in an area that was strongly pro-Bush just a few months ago, something like southwestern Virginia, come to think of it. Fascinating.
The bottom line is that the Ohio results yesterday were a big victory for Democrats, even though Hackett didn't end up scoring an amazing upset in the end. This November, voters in Virginia will have their chance to continue this trend and to show the Republicans that they've had it with the debacle in Iraq, soaring gas prices, wages failing to keep up with inflation, assaults on Social Security, infringements on civil liberties, corruption in high places (not to mention in Scott County!), and intrusions into our most personal lives. This November, voters in Virginia will have their own chance to send a message to Washington, DC: you guys are not representing people like us, so we're going to elect people who will. And that starts with Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne, and Creigh Deeds ("TLC") in just over 90 days. I can't wait.
Comments
Oh yeah, SURE. Like (John Sloan - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Oh yeah, SURE. Like impartial Americans are gonna believe that because a Democrat Combat Veteran runs for office, then obviously the Democrats are the party that supports our troops. Riiiiiight (worked well for Kerry huh?). Folks, there are Americans, and there are Liberals. Which are you?
May all the tax love (TJ Jackson - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
May all the tax lovers, gun grabbers and worshippers of the ACLU be blessed with the same margain of "victory." I wonder what Kaine's margain will be when he has to explain his support of constant tax increases and defends his performance in Richmond.
Thank you John in OH (Teddy - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Thank you John in OH2.Do you care to comment on the "slime" attack of Swift Boat proportions? It seems to be the Republican way to campaign, even among themselves in a primary, and it is completely debasing the entire electoral process. What was the slime? Who organized and developed and paid for it? When did it start, and what media outlets did they use, and what did it probably cost? Daddy Warbucks must have financed it.
Remember Oscar Schin (John in OH2 - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Remember Oscar Schindler at the end of Schindler's List? He had made this heroic effort, but all he could think about is how he could have saved just one more person if he had done just one more thing. That's a little bit of how we Democrats in the second district of Ohio are feeling today. There was MAJOR momentum for Hackett in the last few days and I truly beleive he would have won with just a little more money or a few more days of campaigning or a few more volunteers.
Billy correctly identifies many of the plusses for Hackett and the minusses for Schmidt that were particular to this race, though I beleive he overstates their magnitude. For example, to say Hackett was "hugeley popular in his district" when he had nearly no name recognitiion outside of the village in which he was a former councilmember is a stretch. Unfortunately, "every level" of the Democratic Party did NOT foucus on him until very late in the game. I would also argue with the depiction of him as "centrist" on any other issue than the Second Ammendment. The Republican Party and PACs, along with Schmidt herself, certainly used the word "liberal" as a constant epithet. Also, while Schmidt did emerge from a bruising primary, it was not she doing or getting the bruising--it was the two frontrunners that knocked each other around. However forced their smiles may have been, they all endorsed Jean and if you think Ohio Republicans stay home and let Democrats win, becuase their guy didn't get the nomination, you don't know our district! Meanwhile, Jean Schmidt, a veteran pol with high name recognition, spent three times as much money, had nearly three times the number of registered voters in her party and had a Right to Life organization she headed, as well as a national Repuplican orgnization which promised to "bury" Hackett, working dilligently for months, yet she lost four of the seven "yellow dog" Republican counties in the second district,(which, despite his statewide unpopularity is Governor Tafts's home base as well, BTW). Don't kid yourselves...this was a major statement of dissatisfaction by hearltland voters with the war and with the economy. I would encourage Virginian Democrats to learn the lessons we learned here and not accept a moral victory in November. If you're thnking about volunteering next week, do it today; if you might give $50, make it $60; if you're willing to talk to two or three people about your candidate, go for four or five. Good luck!
Hackett nearly survi (Maura in VA - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Hackett nearly survived a character assassination of Swift Boat proportions. National Republican talking heads, including the vile Rush Limbaugh, turned on their slime machine to try to tarnish Hackett's courageous record of combat in Iraq.
I give Hackett much more credit than Billy does above, but I do agree that the significance for Virginia Democrats is not to sit back and congratulate ourselves that this is a sign of a big wave for Democrats. Hackett earned every single one of those points that he clawed away from the Republicans. And he did it with HUGE Netroots support, without (until the very end) much support from the DCCC. This was a race that most national democrats completely wrote off long ago, but Hackett, his campaign team, and grassroots and netroots supporters were determined to give Schmidt a run for her money.
In my opinion, the lesson for Virginia Democrats is this: stop writing off districts as unwinnable. Lesson for Democrats reading blogs: grassroost and netroots support can make a HUGE difference. Aggressive campaigning, lots of canvassing, lots of small donations, and a determined, likeable candidate can produce a MAJOR turnaround. A turnaround like this in one or two House of Delegates districts could swing the entire race for Tim Kaine.
The message to Democ (Joseph Connor - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
The message to Democrats is simple - run your campaign as a Republican and you may have a chance. Throw President Bush into your commercials and that's another boon to your campaign.
Greg, if you're goin (Phoenix Woman - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Greg, if you're going to make inflammatory troll-like statements, you'd better back them up with facts in context. Or be considered a liar.
Meanwhile, our efforts not only turned a "safe red" seat into a swing seat, we broke a GOP logjam on several key school levies in Ohio:
The Hackett Effect And The Blogosphere (or how Hackett and our GOTV got a lot of good levies passed last night)
Schmidt outspent Pau (kathy lees - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Schmidt outspent Paul Hackett by 3 to 1 in an overwhelmingly republican district and still barely eeked out a win. This says a lot about the deep roots of dissatisfaction with the Bush regime. By the way gary, Schmidt is the liar; not Paul Hackett. Anyone heard any more about Schmidt's campaign manager using campaign computer to solicit S&M partners. So much for republican family values.
I'll also add that H (Dick Tuck - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
I'll also add that Hackett shows the power of grassroots people power. Hackett's funds came in $5-$25 increments, and gave his campaign almost a half million to compete. The DNC wrote off this district until the last few days of the campaign.
The bloggers led a national effort to make one exciting campaign.
This reinforces the message of Chairman Dean, which the inside the beltway old gaurd mocked. If Democrats want to win, they need a 50 state strategy, recruit good candidates, and make every race competitive. Schweitzer proved there's no such thing as a red state with his win in Montana.
Hackett's message to (Dick Tuck - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Hackett's message to Democrats is you can be more competitive, even in crimson districts, by calling Bush an "SOB" and Cheney a "chickenhawk". Hackett, a prochoice, antiwar, Democrat, came within 4 points of victory in a district that went two thirds for Bush. Thousands of Republicans voted for him because of his plain spoken honesty. He didn't worry about offending anyone or running a safe race.
Hackett clearly "wal (Kathy Gerber - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
Hackett clearly "walks the walk" and demonstrates those qualities of leadership that are becoming all too rare. This wasn't a matter of mere marketing or image creation.
What about the demographics of those who actually shifted in this election? I would conjecture that Republicans who are financially better off continued to vote financial self-interest, and those who did shift their votes in this election are more likely from rural areas.
A very proud ex-Marine today!
I offer a muted hoor (Teddy - 4/4/2006 11:27:25 PM)
I offer a muted hooray! And congratulations to an outstanding candidate in Hackett. However, I am sure the Republicans are also very well aware of the figures, most especially Scott Howell, JK's ultimate political guru. Therefore, it seems more likely than ever that the Republicans in Virginia will unleash negative attacks at all levels, more vicious and scurrilous than we can ever imagine. The question is, about what? I hope Mo and the Kaine team is brainstorming this, and not just relying on merely continuing their positive issues-oriented campaign, and only responding to negatives once they occur.