Gail Parker, who is running for Senate as an Independent Green, is considering dropping out of the race. Although polls say that she is only receiving about two percent of the vote, those two percentage points could prove to be crucial in a race that most polls conclude is within the margin of error. Before she officially drops out of the race, the Washington Post reports that Parker is talking with both candidates about what they would do in order to improve the rail system in the Commonwealth of Virginia. I believe it is safe to believe that she would then endorse whichever candidate is provides the best reply.
The obvious questions are; which candidate will she support? And will all of her supporters follow her by voting for whichever candidate she endorses?
see my views below the fold
As Lowell pointed out in an earlier diary, Parker does have many similar characteristics as a Republican candidate.
What on earth's a "Common Sense Conservative Green?" That's very hard to say, except that they seem to like rail (who doesn't?). According to Parker, "[w]e're conservative, unlike the national Green Party." Aside from rail, Parker says that her campaign is about "family, faith and values." She says that her "values were established in a Christian household, with Christian guidance." She's for term limits. She believes in "free-market alternatives and incentives." She refuses to say whether or not she'd support overturning Roe v. Wade, whether she supports embryonic stem cell research, whether she supports a guest worker program for illegal immigrants, or whether she supports the so-called "marriage amendment." And she calls herself a "fiscal conservative."This could potentially mean that George Allen might appeal to her supporters. After reading the write up by the Washington Post about her potential withdrawal from the race, I also gained the impression that the Post believed her endorsement would probably go to Allen (note that was just my reaction. The Post didnGÇÖt make any hypothesis.) The ultimate deciding factor of ParkerGÇÖs potential withdrawal from the race, however, isnGÇÖt who she endorses, but itGÇÖs who her current supporters decide to vote for.In other words, Gail Parker is a right-wing, Christian, social conservative who calls herself a "common sense conservative." Sound familiar? That's right, Gail Parker's political philosophy isn't much different than George Allen's, except that Parker really REALLY like "rail!" In fact, she likes "rail!" so much that she puts an exclamation point after the word "rail!" wherever that word "rail!" appears! And she touts "rail!" as the solution to everything from Iraq to the common cold. Well, maybe not the common cold, but did I mention that Gail Parker really really loves "rail!"? For more on Parker and "rail!", check out
her questionnaire responses in the Connection Newspapers.
Obviously her supporters would be strongly influenced by her endorsement, but one could argue that they would probably vote for Jim Webb either way. I make this conclusion based upon the fact that a third party candidate is often viewed as an alternative choice if a voter doesnGÇÖt like either of the two major partiesGÇÖ candidates. Since the Gail Parker tends to have some conservative views, it is likely that some of her supporters were going to vote for her because they were upset with the direction that George Allen and the Republican Party had been leading the country towards, but didnGÇÖt necessarily want to help Democrats take control of the Senate. Their frustration with the incumbent, however, might lead them to believe that it would be best for them to vote for Jim Webb.
Through voting for Jim Webb, ParkerGÇÖs supporters would be voting for a candidate who is independent of the Bush Administration and would actively promote what is best for Virginians, not what would make the president happy. Furthermore, voting for Jim Webb would fit the platform used by the Independent Green Party. The party is based upon the plain and simple fact that there should be more people involved in politics. Independent Greens believe this should take place because many incumbents have taken part in causing the national debt to rise to $8 trillion, while not spending enough money on projects such as Rail! (Independent Greens really like to idea of more Rail!) It is this frustration with incumbents that could lead to members of the Independent Green Party to vote for Jim Webb on November 7.
Although this wonGÇÖt necessarily happen, Webb would be in a statistical dead heat (not just within the margin of error) with George Allen if he were to receive the vote of all ParkerGÇÖs supporters. Realistically, however, ParkerGÇÖs supporters should probably be treated the same as the voters who are already undecided. This would also probably benefit Jim Webb because, as George Allen frequently points out, Allen has served in several offices and Virginians generally know at least a little bit about his policies. Ultimately this means that itGÇÖs very likely that people who havenGÇÖt decided to vote for George Allen yet, will be voting for Jim Webb come Election Day.
As a result, it is my opinion that no matter which candidate she endorses, Jim Webb would benefit the most from Gail Parker withdrawing from the race. In an extremely close race, however, even two weeks is a long time. There is therefore no telling what other situations might affect the outcome of the race.