This percentage of Allen staying at 46/7 percent thru out the race is very suspicious. Just once did he fall to 43. I still believe he is at 43% and the race is a dead heat without the margin of error.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men 310 (50%)  Women 315 (50%)
Whites 526 (84%)  Blacks  92 (15%)  Other  7 (1%)

REGION 

Northern Virginia   165 interviews 
Shenandoah/Piedmont  90 interviews 
Richmond Metro  90 interviews  
Hampton Roads  130 interviews
Lynchburg/Southside  75 interviews
Roanoke/Southwestern Virginia  75 interviews

..............

God, I feel just like Laura Bush on Leno now!

But seriously, I have no predictions, just anticipation and some mild apprehension.  I haven't really worried all day; I know what the Webb team needs to do for the next 2 weeks...we have to get out this vote, pholks.  Get thee to your closest campaign office if you have not yet done so.  We can win, but it's hard work (but harder than the work Bush always talks about)...

We'll see.

Just kidding.

If I were to guess?  Allen by 4-5.

...This election is all about ground game now...

Eli

The only thing likely to work is to show these people exactly what the Bush/Allen policies are costing them.  We've got a commercial saying Allen voted against body armor.  How about Allen voted for the war AND voted against body armor, and that he supports a virtually endless engagement there?  We have to talk about the burden on our kids, upon future generations.  We've got plenty of good numbers posted on this site.  Let's use them.

Now, on the poll, one thing I noticed while phonebanking is how many people no longer have landlines.  I've been through page after page of disconnected phones and think this may have something to do with the conversion of many, especially young people, to cell phones.  That means they're not being picked up in surveys.  When I think of my children (2 of whom can vote) neither they nor any of their friends has a land line.  Everything's by cell and computer.  I've talked to young people.  They may start out oblivious, but talk to them about the war and the constitutional amendment and watch them get connected.  They find it easy to respect Webb.  We need coverage at the local club venues and universities and high schools.  Also, a lot of young folks may not even know whether they're registered to vote.  If their mothers were like me they just checked off that box when the kid went for the license.  Young people should be encouraged to find out whether they're registered. Is GenWebb interested in this?

Forty-two percent of Virginians have a favorable impression of him, the lowest mark he has received since summer of 1993

Thirty-nine percent said they have a negative view of Allen, his all time worst grade

Webb struck 34 percent of the voters positively and 28 percent negatively.  LOTS of people with neutral views or don't know, it would seem

Note this one:

"Fifty-one percent of those polled said they disapprove of the president’s handling of the Iraq war, 43 percent liked it."  I think they messed up their sampling; Bush's Iraq numbers should not be that high.  CNN has a 64-34 spread against Bush; Gallup has 66-30.  I cannot believe Virginia is that much more favorable to Bush on Iraq.  Any recent polls on Va. vis a vis Iraq? 

Rasmussen - 500
WaPo - 1004
Reuters - 601
Gallup - 597
SUSA - 612

As you can see, the M-D sample is actually on the high side.  Doubling the sample would only cut the MOE by about 2% so there's no point.  Anything over 500 is acceptable and anything over 600 is very solid.

Maybe this will motivate those who read here and do little to help.  Cheers to you, join us.

Woman are 45-45 and Webb needs to carry woman by 6-7 points to win. Gosh, you would almost think Allen would run a bunch of bullcrap commercials painting Webb as anti-woman. Then you would think they just might work!

Would also like to see a more that +10 out of NOVA...
+5 out of Hampton Roads is good...

On the economy, 54 percent approved of White House policies and 39 percent disapproved. On combating terrorism, 57 percent said the president has done a good job, 37 percent said he has not.

Is Virginia way off the mark from the national poll numbers on those issues, or is that trend the same as the local poll results for those issues?

I gotta say it...what does that say about the people polled?  Seems like this could be a good thing for Webb, actually.  That count sounds like that is a pretty GOP friendly sample, and Webb is polled pretty close to Allen.

Just sayin'...hmmmmmmmmm.

Since I got polled a bit ago by M-D on this race (and the 2nd CD race), perhaps they know the numbers are hinky.

I'm not buying this one.

Hope the VA2 numbers are good for Phil, assuming they are releasing one.

However - the Daily Press is reporting that this was likely voters, while the Pilot is reporting registered voters. At this point, I don't know which is correct.

full of rich republicans, and conservative republicans -- this area i believe went for Bush in 04.

So anywho's -- my "hero" husband goes to change my tire and sprained his back, so we went to the doctors and got a Rx for some pain killers.

I took my hubby to the Rite Aid at Gunston Shopping Center and his car also has webb/hurst stickers on it.  As i'm walking towards the Rite Aid, this guy says to me (in the parking lot):

'Someone pay you to put those stickers on your car?'

'I said, No way, we're proud supporters'

To which he said: So you're against Macaca then?  He should be called George Macaca'

I laffed, and said 'yeah'

and he goes, well i dont know that i'd put a sticker on my car, but I am not a fan of Allen or of Bush.

I thought that was pretty interesting, because no one has ever said anything to me about my stickers...

Flashforward a couple hours to the gas station.

This is the ONLY gas/service station in all of Lorton (not counting the 7-11 citgo)

I go to get my tire fixed and decide to have an oil change too. So i'm sitting in the station and dont see my car in the garage and go out to look for it -- the oil change station is outside.

So I go to talk to the guy about my car and he starts talking about my stickers (i also still have my mark warner for president stickers, as i made them for draftmarkwarner campaign)

and this typical southern conservative gas station guy goes:

I'm not a registered democrat or nothing, but i would have voted for Warner for president, etc...

well since mark isn't running, i turn towards Webb. And i ask him his thoughts on the senate race.

And he again points out that he's not a registered democrat, but Webb's got the experience he wants, and he will be supporting Webb, that Allen was a disaster when he was governor, etc and how we really need change this time around.

What very much surprised me was that this guy really knew his stuff and he indicated that he talks a lot with neighbors/family members, etc.

Anyways, I thought that this was a pretty good indicator about what was going on in my neck of the woods.

As I said earlier, yes, NoVa is pretty liberal/democratic -- but Lorton is like the last conservative areas around and on 1 single day in the space of a couple hours, 2 totally different types of people were speaking for Webb, against Allen.

If Webb loses in Va, our state truly sucks and i will not be proud to be a Virginian ever again (mind you, lived here almost 40 yrs, my daughter was born here, my family lives down the street from where my hubby grew up, etc.)

i am worried though :(

I am just surprised that the President's numbers differ so much from the national sampling.

Terorism

Where are these commercials?

Jim's been reaching out to constituent groups  but under the radar screen of sorts .... Allen's events have been better publicized as he tries to ride John Warner's coat-tails.

Jim Webb's strength is his personal story as told in the Charlottesville video .... a very positive affirmative piece that has yet to air?? All this negative shit flying around spoils Jim's true image ... creates confusion so people tend to stick with what they know.

So how do you break out? What event or medium will do that?? Simple answer is all of them overlapping. Radio / TV / Printed media (newspapers).... Movie theaters?? What needs to break out .... is a POSITIVE AFFIRMATIVE MESSAGE ... LOUD and CLEAR ... Jim WEBB can't be bought!!!

I hope there are enough dineros to run it!  We are close right now .... come election day we will win this thing... because the majority want a positive change. We should be able to communicate and deliver that. A POSITIVE CHANGE.

Throw that bum out too!!!

Very upsetting.  I'm mad at Warner and everyone else involved in that deal.

For one thing, it was the SCOTUS which *specifically asked* for such a law to be crafted by the Congress, when it threw out the case involving the military tribunals. For another, the court is stacked, 5:4 *at the very least*, with conservatives, some of them unashamedley rabidly partisan and pro-Bush. Bush has used the Constitution as so much toilet paper and they'll happily supply twisted arguments for why he was right.

And in the next two years, the balance may change for the worse, given the age of some of the more liberal ones. It's one more reason to do whatever we can to get as many Repub Senators replaced with Dems; if we have even a scant majority, we might be in a position to stop more Scalito-like nominations from being accepted.

He has been bought entirely.  First the dispensing of habeus corpus, and now endorsing Allen!?

He's shown he's become a dweeb.  First we get Webb elected.
Then we take back control of the state house (2007).  Then we replace John Warner.

How about Leslie Byrne or Mark Warner as US Senator to replace John Warner - the has-been?

We have to really bring home the point that all the last minute rhetoric in the world is not going to change the fact that, at this late date, the GOP has failed horribly in everything.  What does that mean?  It means that all our soldiers died while the GOP was playing games, while they were letting their cronies grab all the money they could get from contracts in Iraq.  They thought it would be easy...and they were WRONG!  It means that environment is going to hell, but their friends are richer, so..... It means that more people are finding it harder to make a living than six years ago.  We need to latch on to EVERY news story from Iraq, or about the environment or the homeless, or the people without health care and drive home the point that the GOP and George Allen have facilitated death and destruction, hardship and despair....all while they've been saying "we have it all under control." They have been at the helm of a listing ship for much too long. It's time for a CHANGE!

We've lost alot more than we've gained since these assholes have gotten into office and it's time to shove it down their whining little throats....just to paraphrase.  We have to have a no-holds-barred approach.  This is our future we're talking about and that of our kids. 

You're all doing a great job and I just wish so much that I could do something besides rant.  Thanks. I'm rooting for ya.

http://news.yahoo.co...

What will George Allen do?

"When you face a struggle, you can either quit or work harder. We're already in this, so quitting doesn't make any sense."

If Allen has 9% more support (47/43), everyone here needs to work 10% harder and give 10% more money than you would. It's that simple.

Special plea to those of you in the Richmond area, we have lots of work we'd love to have some of you helping us with.

According to the poll, "Fifty-one percent of those polled said they disapprove of the president’s handling of the Iraq war, 43 percent liked it."

Webb needs to make this election a referendum on the Iraq war.  He needs an ad about his early opposition and his plan to resolve it.  Now!