These 61 seats are an upgrade from the 56 in the last update and the highest I have measured since May. The number of highly vulnerable races is now up to GÇ£18GÇ¥ and 35 seats are in the 1st and 2nd tiers. These 61 seats encompass 25 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat that was held by a Republican, or challenging the Republican incumbent. The frustration in this country is palpable. Republicans may stay home. More Democrats may turn out. Swing voters who chose Bush over Kerry may go the other way this time. Whatever the outcome, November 7th will be a critical day in the future of our country.
Below the flip is the list.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent
Highly vulnerable races (18)
Arizona 08x GÇô Republicans have abandoned ad buys in this district.
Colorado 07x GÇô This race is getting closer, but the DCCC is coming in to help in the final weeks.
Connecticut 02 (Simmons)
Florida 16x GÇô The Republicans may not be able to save this seat in time.
Illinois 06x
Indiana 02 (Chocola)
Indiana 08 (Hostettler) GÇô The shocking thing about this race is not that Ellsworth has a big lead, but that several polls had a sitting incumbent in the low 30s in Southwestern Indiana.
Indiana 09 (Sodrel)
Iowa 01x
New Mexico 01 (Wilson)
New York 24x
New York 26 (Reynolds) GÇô If the Democrats canGÇÖt take advantage of thisGǪ(fill in own statement here).
North Carolina 11 (Taylor)
Ohio 18x GÇô Another example of a race everybody thought was over. Extreme corruption seems to sway voters, even in conservative districts.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach)
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) GÇô Another week, another scandal for Republicans.
Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) GÇô Sherwood is still dogged by two words: mistress and choking.
Texas 22x GÇô Republicans have a write-in, and will likely go after Lampson in 2008.
Vulnerable races (17)
California 11 (Pombo)
Connecticut 04 (Shays)
Connecticut 05 (N. Johnson)
Florida 13x
Florida 22 (Shaw)
Kentucky 03 (Northup)
Kentucky 04 (Davis)
Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht) GÇô This is becoming a really interesting race down the wire.
Minnesota 06x
New York 19 (Kelly)
New York 29 (Kuhl) GÇô Massa is surging at the right time
Ohio 01 (Chabot)
Ohio 15 (Pryce) GÇô It doesnGÇÖt matter where you are during the summer; only where you are in OctoberGǪand Kilroy could be poised for the kill.
Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) GÇô Will MurphyGÇÖs military record catapult him? DoesnGÇÖt serving in Iraq kind of make the GOP GÇ£Democrats donGÇÖt support our troopsGÇ¥ mantra mute?
Virginia 02 (Drake) GÇô Drake is pulling out all the stops to dig up whatever dirt she can. However, will her low standing in the polls really improve by trying to get voters to vote against Kellam rather than vote for her?
Washington 08 (Reichert)
Wisconsin 08x
Potential seats (26)
Arizona 01 (Renzi)
Arizona 05 (Hayworth) GÇô DonGÇÖt count Mitchell out just yet.
California 04 (Doolittle)
California 50 (Bilbray)
Colorado 04 (Musgrave)
Colorado 05x GÇô If Fawcett cannot win here, with all that has happened, no Democrat can win here.
Idaho 01x GÇô This is still a race to watch, and will come down to the wire. It is rare to see a Republican running for an open seat so hated by his own state party leaders.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) GÇô Seals is finally on TV. His weakness remains name recognition, but he is a strong candidate if the voters get to know him. This race will come down to Seals getting the support he needs to stay on TV and stay in the voters minds. It is still a shock that the DCCC is neglecting this opportunity, since Seals could easily be a 2nd or even 1st tier race if given adequate attention. He may still win without it, but it will be tough.
Illinois 11 (Weller) GÇô A scandal may be brewing here. This race was considered a GÇ£safeGÇ¥ seat, but it could change quickly, which is why it is GÇ£potentialGÇ¥.
Iowa 02 (Leach) GÇô This race may be one of those that was off the radar that catches everyone by surprise.
Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry)
Nebraska 03x
Nevada 02x
Nevada 03 (Porter)
New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
New York 03 (King)
New York 20 (Sweeney) GÇô The polls are all over the place, but Sweeney is clearly against the ropes this time. This race will be close no matter what the various polls show.
New York 25 (Walsh)
North Carolina 08 (Hayes)
Ohio 02 (Schmidt)
Ohio 12 (Tiberi) GÇô Democrat Bob Shamansky has raised $1 million so far in his bid to take down an incumbent in a district where Bush only got 51% of the vote in 2004, and the race is picking up momentum since the Foley scandal.
Texas 23 (Bonilla)
Virginia 10 (Wolf)
Washington 05 (McMorris) GÇô This race continues to be an intriguing upset possibility.
Wyoming at-large (Cubin) GÇô Trauner has a good ad out, and this race may be a lot closer than people think.
10 races on the fringe
Florida 08 (Keller), Illinois 14 (Hastert), Kansas 02 (Ryun), Kentucky 02 (Lewis), Michigan 07x, Michigan 08 (Rogers), Minnesota 02 (Kline), Pennsylvania 04 (Hart), Virginia 11 (Davis), West Virginia 02 (Capito)
Georgia 08 (Marshall), Georgia 12 (Barrow), Illinois 08 (Bean), Indiana 07 (Carson), Iowa 03 (Boswell)
**None of these races are considered likely to result in Republican victory, and would be considered 3rd tier races in terms of the seat switching hands
***This list does not count VermontGÇÖs open seat, where a victory for Democrat Peter Welch would take the seat from Independent to Democrat. However, this race is almost like a Democratic seat since Sanders caucused with the Democrats.
Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Washington Post key races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Key House Races
House Balance of Power Scorecard
Politics1
CQ Politics
Election Projection.com
GeorgeAllenVa? How about GeorgeAllenCa - for California?
Jim Webb is way more VA than George Allen ever could hope to be.