2005 all over again?

By: sndeak
Published On: 10/14/2006 8:21:45 PM

Looks like this one is gonna go right down the the wire, similar to the Kaine vs Kilgore race last year.

I pulled Rasmussen polls from both races at similar dates to see just how they compare.

Kilgore had a similar lead at this point last year. Then he imploded with the Death Penalty ads. I don't expect Allen to do that.
Let's keep reaching out to the Independents, that is what turned the tide last year.

Rasmussen Polls
August 4, 2005  VA: Kilgore 45% Kaine 39%  D -6
August 16, 2006  VA: Allen 47% Webb 42% D -5

October 12, 2005 VA: Kilgore 46% Kaine 44% D -2
October 14, 2006  VA: Allen 49% Webbb 46%  D -3

I'm still a little concerned with Allen so close to the magical 50%.

Comments



But - didn't Kaine win with a margin of 4 - 5% (totallynext - 10/15/2006 9:02:05 PM)
So that would be trending the Same

put a chart up that correlates the two races.  We did a really really big GOTV in Mount Vernon and turn it Blue.

and are working hard with canvansas and phone banking in the last three weeks.  But we could use more volunteers.



Some cautions (Catzmaw - 10/15/2006 10:17:14 PM)
1)  Kilgore launched his death penalty ads and caused a backlash.

2)  Kaine always polled very well with women. 

Women are the magic key to winning this election.  I've taken every chance to discuss the Webb campaign with all my women friends and asked them to spread the word.  Hate to sound like a broken record, but let's get the women on board.