Rasmussen: Webb Closing In...Race Now "Toss-Up"

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/14/2006 1:48:29 PM

I saw that Rasmussen had posted a new poll on the Allen-Webb race earlier today, but I'm not a "premium" subscriber so I didn't know what the results were.  Well, apparently Virginia Progressive is richer than I am, because he's got the resultsAllen 49%, Webb 46%.  That's a 3-point gain for Webb since the last Rasmussen poll came out a couple weeks ago, on 10/1.  With 3 weeks left, we need another 3 points...1 point per week.  That's definitely doable.  In fact, this race is reminding me in some ways of last year's Kaine-Kilgore contest, where Kaine caught Kilgore in late October, then surged past him on Election Day.  I'd take that same result this year.

In order to make this happen, however, we need to get out our vote.  That's going to be the key, no doubt about it.  So, if you haven't started phone banking, or canvassing, or whatever, please do so.  This one's for all the marbles - control of the US Senate and the direction of the United States the next 2 years.  Thanks.

[UPDATE: More from Rasmussen...

Virginia: Senator George Allen (R) continues to struggle. He now leads James Webb (D) by just three percentage points, 47% to 44%. Data and Article Coming Later. When leaners are included, it's Allen 49% Webb 46%. This is the fourth consecutive survey showing increased voter support for Webb. Only once in those surveys has Allen reached 50%. At the beginning of October, Allen was ahead 49% to 43%. When this data is released to the public, we will shift our ranking of the race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.


Comments



Please Honestly Critique !! (norman swingvoter - 10/14/2006 1:57:35 PM)
This is my letter to the editor.  I am considering printing it out and mailing it to my friends also.  Are there any suggestions for it?

As a Veteran and Independent voter, I am deeply concerned by the incompetence of the Bush Administration in fighting the Afghan and Iraq Wars.

1) The Afghan War: We were on the verge of crushing the Taliban.  Now, according to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, in a briefing in Afghanistan, the Taliban has too much popular support and is too strong to be defeated militarily and needs to be brought back into the government. NATO's top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Richards estimates that 70% of Afghans will switch their allegiance to the Taliban if we don't change course within 6 months.

2) The Iraq War:  We have gone from our intial victory to having a country on the verge of a civil war. Marine Major Gen. Richard Zilmer, has advised that, in western Anbar province, the insurgency has reached the point where our current troops there are not strong enough to defeat it. Senator Warner has warned that the situation is drifting sideways and we will need to examine a change of course.

3) The Cost: 25,000 US troop casualities and rising. $440,000,000,000 and rising.

STAY THE COURSE?  NO, we cannot continue on this course to defeat.  George Allen is a politician with NO military experience.  Consequently, he has done nothing but blindly follow the the failed policies of the Bush Administration as the number of our killed and wounded rises.  Jim Webb is a decorated war hero who was first in his class at the Marine Corps Officer's Basic School and served in Vietnam.  Jim Webb has experience working with our NATO allies as well as being Secretary of the Navy. Jim Webb and John Warner will make a winning team to help clean up this mess caused by George Allen and the Bush Administration.

JOIN ME IN SUPPORTING OUR TROOPS, VOTE JIM WEBB FOR SENATE



It's fine as it is :) (Kathy Gerber - 10/14/2006 2:46:23 PM)
Send it.

Well maybe the all caps can go.  Except for NO military experience.



I like it (Catzmaw - 10/14/2006 2:55:54 PM)
This letter reflects your honest opinion and comes equipped with excellent facts.  I think you might want to work in there that Mr. Webb warned against the Iraq war before it began, and that everything he predicted about it has come to pass.  Now he has suggestions of how to mitigate some effects of this disaster, but the only way he can put those into play is to be one of the decisionmakers.  Remember, the Bush administration has gotten by with this because our legislators have failed in their consitutional obligation to act as a check on the executive.  They've failed to ask the hard questions and to investigate the conduct of this war.  Ask your friends if they would trust Allen, an administration yes-man, to take a stand and demand answers.  Ask if he would even know what answers he's looking for.  He doesn't know anything about the military.  Even if he suddenly started asking questions, how would he even understand the information he's getting? On the other hand, you've got Webb.  He'll know when someone's trying to pull the wool over his eyes, and he's got the guts to call them on it.  He knows what questions to ask and he's not going to be bamboozled. 

Feel free to accept, reject, or use any of what I wrote, Norman.  We need to get the word out there and as a veteran your input on the current military situation has credibility. 



Thanks For Your Comments All (norman swingvoter - 10/14/2006 7:25:22 PM)
Thanks everyone for the comments.  I made some changes and sent it in.  We'll see if it is published.


I Started Submitting (norman swingvoter - 10/14/2006 7:47:57 PM)
I stumbled across this website, http://newslink.org/...  I decided to submit to more than just The Richmond Times Dispatch.  I don't know to what extent they will publish letters submitted this way but it might be something we can do. We will see what happens.


Ha. (James Martin - 10/14/2006 2:23:00 PM)
As a college kid you have to find ways to improvise so as not to spend money :-P

I got it from the sidebar of http://www.pollster....



Great letter (PM - 10/14/2006 2:54:49 PM)
One suggestion -- spell out your military experience in a sentence:

"I'm an independent voter who served his country in . . ."



OK, you may not be richer than I am... (Lowell - 10/14/2006 3:07:59 PM)
...but apparently you're smarter! :)


And by the way.. (Kathy Gerber - 10/14/2006 2:47:38 PM)
this poll is excellent news.  Thanks for making my day.


More on the Latino Coalition (PM - 10/14/2006 3:13:59 PM)
I don't want to beat a dead horse (or a live one) but there are two updates on Kos about the Latino Coalition, a subject that I wrote about a litle while ago.

“Evil Paula” at Kos has done more on the Latino Coalition confirming that it is a GOP front organization:

http://www.dailykos....

I have looked over their archive at the titles of their press releases. Here are some samples ***:

*Latino Leaders Praised President Bush for his Courageous Proposal to Reform Immigration
*Latino Groups Endorse President George W. Bush
*Statement by The Latino Coalition on the improper political discourse at the Radio City Music Hall fundraiser for John Kerry
*The Latino Coalition Endorses Schwarzenegger for Governor Urge Hispanics to Support the Recall of Governor Davis
*The Only Controversy Regarding Miguel Estrada is His Race
Interestingly, I have found no outrage from The Latino Coalition concerning the "Republicans' blocking of Hispanic Circuit Court nominees Jorge Rangel, Enrique Moreno and Christine Arguello, who were prevented from getting a hearing or a vote." If The Latino Coalition has been around sice 1995, they should have issued statements, but I have not located any yet
*Hispanic Leaders Urge Congress to Pass Permanent Repeal of the Death Tax
*Latino Leaders Urge Congress to Stop Frivolous Lawsuits

She also points out that the Washington Post did some digging about the group:

http://blog.washingt...

Latinos for Brown?
Mayoral candidate Michael Brown's breakfast endorsement by a national Latino organization headquartered in the District has raised more than a few questions, particularly from other Latino organizations.

Last week, the Post's District political column reported that Robert de Posada, head of the Latino Coalition, praised Brown as one of the few candidates who understands small businesses. "It was an easy decision," de Posada said.

Not long after the endorsement's brief mention appeared in the District Notebook, activists started calling and emailing Ted Loza, the director the D.C. Latino PAC.

"I've been contacted by many asking 'Who is this group? Who is this guy? Do they really live in the community?" Loza said. "In the grassroots community, we don't know who they are."

But there’s more.  “Hiro” piled on this info:

http://www.dailykos....

I did some digging and found the name & address of the firm that registered The Latino Coalition's domain.

Sullivan & Mitchell PLLC
1100 Connecticut Avenue NW #330
Washington 20036

I found that Cleta D. Mitchell was not only a founding partner of Sullivan & Mitchell PLLC*** The key paragraph from her bio says:

Ms. Mitchell represents numerous Republican candidates, campaigns and members of Congress, including Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), among others. She is legal counsel to the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Ms. Mitchell served as co-counsel for the National Rifle Association in the Supreme Court case involving the 2002 federal campaign finance law.***

Hiro adds: “[S]he lobbied for The Heratage Foundation probably one of the biggest and most influential conservative "think tanks" in the USA for the last twenty years.

George Allen –  pathetic.powergrid060306_198



Diary this. (phriendlyjaime - 10/14/2006 6:10:18 PM)
And more importantly, get it out to the MSM.

Good work.  :)



Polls (libra - 10/14/2006 6:52:24 PM)
Thanks, Mark, for the Pollster website. Here's another one, which is what I've been using:
http://www.electoral...
I find it a litle easier to understand but, OTOH, it does not have any commentary


O/T -- letters to the Editor (libra - 10/14/2006 9:50:17 PM)
Perhaps it would be nice to have a separate place where "y'all" would "vet" our efforts. But, until there is, I'll take a page from Norman Swingvoter's book and as everyone to please comment. I'm not in a habit of writing Letters to the Editor and English is not my first language, so *any* help will be welcome.

Prelim notes:
1)ordinarily, our paper (The News Gazette, in Lexington)does not limit the length of Letters to the Editor but, during the election season, it's asking for no more than 300 words. Clearly, something will need to *go*. But what? The paper says that, regardless of length, the letters will still be edited, so as to avoid repetition (my guess is they want to avoid "cookie cutter" letters "sponsored" by either party). Naturally, as a "budding author", I can't bear the idea that anything needs to be cut , but my feeling is that, the more I cut myself, the less cutting material they'll be left with. Please help to make this letter short and "punchy" by paring off non-essentials.
2)I would like to avoid writing the "knight in a shining armor" type of letter that we saw the other day as published in the Rockbridge Weekly (the county competitor of The News Gazette. Maybe I should write to them also. But, if so... Should I send the same letter to both?)

OK, here's my effort :)

Editor, The News-Gazette: 

There are many excellent reasons for Virginians to send Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate as our representative.

Jim Webb is committed to making health care available and affordable to all  Americans, not just the richest ones. He will strive to make sure that the future of the Social Security (and our Senior Citizens’ with it) is not dependent on the vagaries of the stock market and the rapacious -- and, often, dishonest -- few who manipulate it.  He’ll do his best to make sure that our children and granchildren have a future also -- through better education and through better protection of our environment and the very air we breathe. With him in the Senate, any tax-cuts will profit 99% of the population, not the fabulously rich 1%. Instead of rubber-stamping every Presidential whim, he will work with Senator Warner on getting us out of the Iraq disaster and on restoring the Senate to its proper position -- that of providing one of the checks and counterbalances to the executive over-reach.

There are many, many, good reasons for wanting “Born Fighting” Jim Webb as our representative. But, in the long run, the best reason is this one: Jim Webb is a thoughtful, honest and principled person. He will never sell out his soul to the big-time corporations for either financial or political personal gain; he won’t ever be beholden to them so far, that he ignores your concerns and mine. He’s truly the representative of “we, the people”, not of the “culture of corruption” that all of us are so tired of seeing in the Republican-ran Congress.

Come November 7, vote for Jim Webb for Senate; he’s our best chance for Better America.

 



My compliments (Teddy - 10/14/2006 10:34:07 PM)
Your letter is genuine and heartfelt as-is, definitely not a oookie cutter. If you feel you must do a self-edit, may I suggest deleting the first sentence of the second paragraph so that paragraph reads something like this: "In the long run, the best reason is: Jim Webb is a thoughtful, honest, and principled person who will never sell out his soul to the big-time corporations or ignore your concerns and mine. He's truly the representative of "we, the people," and not of the "culture of corruption" we all are so tired of seeing in the Republican-run Congress."  (Also, grandchildren does have a "d" in it, in the first paragraph).

Great letter! Pick yours paper, though, because most editors do not like duplicate entries. If you want to send something to another paper, re-arrrange some of your thoughts, and maybe re-insert something you cut out. And don't be surprised if some editor decides to publish the letter you thought least likely to be published.

Good luck, and thanks!



Allen's web site (vote-left - 10/14/2006 11:28:36 PM)
I certainly believe the statistics on this blog before I would believe George Allen's web site, but Allen seems to be quoting the same Rasmussen poll and is showing entirely different results:

Rasmussen has a new poll out on the Virginia Senate Race, and it shows George Allen extending his lead:

  * George Allen - 50%
  * Jim Webb — 43%

Jon Henke - September 13, 2006 - 11:55 PM · Election News

http://www.allenhq.c...

All I can guess, is that one set of statistics is "likely voters" while the other is "registered voters" or something similar.



Oh, I just noticed... (vote-left - 10/14/2006 11:34:46 PM)
...it says September 13th, not October 13th.  My error.


LOL! Look at Henke's main page! (PM - 10/15/2006 12:04:15 AM)
http://www.allenhq.c...

It's still citing the old Zogby 11% poll.

Talk
about
deceptive
campaigning

pants300



Yet when Zogby had Webb up 8... (DanG - 10/15/2006 2:17:55 AM)
Zogby was full of crap, right?  I think the consensus is Webb is down 2-3 points. 


Thanks, Teddy (libra - 10/15/2006 1:12:46 AM)
I've cut/pasted and sent your coments to myself, so I can print them and "digest" them slowly. I hope to have the letter in good-enough condition to take (not send; almost everything in this town is within walking distance for a reasonably healthy person ). I think I'll send it to one paper only -- the town one we subscribe to (even if I don't read it myself). Even though it was the "knight in the shining armor" letter, published in the county paper that got me all steamed up :)\

Hopefully, every little bit will help.