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BREAKING--New House polls will show looming Democratic landslide

by Chris Bowers, Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 02:35:07 PM EST

I usually despise blog posts with the word "BREAKING" in the title, in all caps, but in this rare case I actually am the person breaking the story, so I think it is justiifed.

The new Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics will be released in a few minutes. Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections. It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with "safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming landslide.

I will have the complete, district-by-district results in this post once they are available. These polls include the first independent results for a number of districts, including many on the netroots page (MN-06, NC-08, ID-01, NY-29 and many more). This is by far the strongest evidence yet of a looming Democratic landslide, and is worth more than every generic ballot released this cycle. This is as close as you can come to actual proof that Democrats are on the brink of winning the House.

It just had a nice endorsement of Webb:

http://www.chronicle...

Voters have a refreshing choice in this year's Virginia Senate race, with two distinctly different candidates. If you are a social conservative and you think President Bush is doing a great job and you strongly support his conduct of the Iraq war, George Allen is your candidate. Clearly, Allen strongly supports Bush's policies across the board. Allen hasn't, and is not going to question the president's policies and actions.

However, if you are beginning to wonder if "staying the course" in Iraq actually makes any sense, if you are beginning to question tax cuts for the wealthy while our national debt escalates to unfathomable numbers, if you are disturbed by the country's economic outlook, and if you are looking for an independent thinker who will question and challenge the administration's (actually, any administration's) proposals, Jim Webb is your man . . . and ours.

http://www.youtube.c...

It's a stunner

Quite frankly, it's the type of ad Jim Webb should be running

http://www.constitue...

In each of 30 contested congressional districts, a representative sample of 5,000 likely voters based on previous vote history was selected from state voter registration files. 1,200-1,300 interviews were completed in each district from August 27-30, except in the three Indiana congressional districts where interviews were conducted September 8-10.

Completed interviews were compared to the voter registration file to validate results. Interview were discarded when the surveyed demographic responses did not match the voter file information of the sampled likely voter. In this manner, approximately 1,000 interviews were validated for each district.

Final results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and CD geographical subarea. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all voters in a CD were polled.

http://constituentdy...

What an incredible fund-raiser, what a bundle of energy.  She is exactly the type of person we need representing us in Congress.  It's time to throw all the bums out and put in people like Judy and Andy Hurst, who still remember the little guy and will never put themselves up for auction to the highest bidder.