The 56 seats is a upgrade from the 51 in the last update and the highest I have measured in almost two months. The number of highly vulnerable races is back up to the magic GÇ£15GÇ¥ that Democrats need to take back the house, and 34 seats are in the 2nd tier, listed as GÇ£vulnerableGÇ¥. These 56 seats encompass 25 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat that was held by a Republican, or challenging the Republican incumbent. Although gas prices are going down, the War in Iraq is getting worse and the Foley scandal has changed the dynamics of several key races.
Below the flip is the list.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent
Highly vulnerable races (15)
Arizona 08x GÇô Republicans have abandoned ad buys in this district as polls are not working in their favor since the primary. Is the Republican capitulation here a sign of strength for the Democrats, or a sign that the abundance of hot races are stretching Republicans thin?
Colorado 07x
Connecticut 02 (Simmons)
Florida 16x GÇô With Foley gone, this seat is ripe for the taking. This is still a red district, but Mahoney has been running a solid campaign so far. He is running TV ads, and looks to be in position to take advantage of his recent windfall. For once, Florida election law may HELP the Democrats by keeping FoleyGÇÖs name on the ballot.
Illinois 06x
Indiana 02 (Chocola)
Indiana 08 (Hostettler) GÇô The shocking thing about this race is not that Ellsworth has a big lead, but that a sitting incumbent polled at 32% in Southwestern Indiana.
Indiana 09 (Sodrel)
Iowa 01x
New Mexico 01 (Wilson)
New York 26 (Reynolds) GÇô This is an example of a once 3rd tier race where everything is going right for the Democrat. First there was a close poll that included Reynolds, Davis, and the green candidate. Then, the green candidate was disqualified. Then, Reynolds finds himself in the middle of the Foley scandal. Now Davis is ahead. If the Democrats canGÇÖt take advantage of thisGǪ(fill in own statement here).
North Carolina 11 (Taylor)
Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) GÇô Sherwood is dogged by two words, mistress and choking.
Texas 22x GÇô Republicans have a write-in, and will likely go after Lampson in 2008.
Wisconsin 08x
Vulnerable races (19)
California 11 (Pombo)
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) GÇô The solid polling of a third party conservative candidate and former Reagan official may take enough votes from Musgrave and give Paccione the boost she needs to win in the end. The polls have been consistent, and Musgrave remains around 46%.
Connecticut 04 (Shays)
Connecticut 05 (N. Johnson) GÇô This race is the toughest for Democrats to win in Connecticut, but the Republicans are still pulling out all the stops to hold this seat.
Florida 22 (Shaw)
Kentucky 04 (Davis)
Minnesota 06x
Nevada 02x
New York 24x
North Carolina 08 (Hayes)
Ohio 01 (Chabot)
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) GÇô This race is heating up. For those of us who only thought Paul Hackett could win here, it appears as if Schmidt may be more vulnerable than she was the last time.
Ohio 15 (Pryce)
Ohio 18x GÇô Another example of a race everybody thought was over. Corruption seems to sway voters, even in conservative districts.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) GÇô Still a toss-up at this point.
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) GÇô Over the last couple weeks, rumors abound that internals had Weldon up by double-digits. National Journal was downgrading the race. Now polls are showing a dead heat? I am still not convinced that the tides have completely turned, but itGÇÖs looking better.
Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) GÇô Will MurphyGÇÖs military record catapult him? DoesnGÇÖt serving in Iraq kind of make the GOP GÇ£Democrats donGÇÖt support our troopsGÇ¥ mantra mute?
Virginia 02 (Drake) GÇô Drake is pulling out all the stops to dig up whatever dirt she can. However, will her low standing in the polls really improve by trying to get voters to vote against Kellam rather than vote for her?
Washington 08 (Reichert)
Potential seats (22)
Arizona 05 (Hayworth)
California 04 (Doolittle)
Colorado 05x GÇô This race has raised more than a few heads, especially when retiring Republican incumbent Joel Hefley decided to withdraw support for the Republican, Lamborn, and even considered a write-in candidacy for himself that would take votes away from Lamborn. There was even a brief flirtation with the National Journal rankings at #50 a couple weeks ago for this traditionally conservative-dominated district.
Florida 13x GÇô The last poll had the Democrat way up, but it seems to be inconsistent with earlier polling.
Idaho 01x GÇô This is still a race to watch, and will be might interesting over the next few weeks.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) GÇô Kerry got 53% here in 2004. This race can change in October when people start paying attention to Seals.
Illinois 14 (Hastert) GÇô For the first time, this race hits the potential seats list. If the Foley scandal happened several months ago, Hastert would probably have had time to beat back the negative press. However, with such a shockwave happening so close to Election Day, it creates a unique opportunity to knock off a big dog. We still donGÇÖt know if things will get worse for Hastert over the next coming weeks. Things could quiet down, or new revelations may come out. The Washington Times going after him was a big deal.
Kentucky 02 (Lewis)
Kentucky 03 (Northup)
Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht)
Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry)
Nevada 03 (Porter)
New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
New York 19 (Kelly)
New York 20 (Sweeney)
New York 25 (Walsh)
New York 29 (Kuhl)
Ohio 12 (Tiberi) GÇô Democrat Bob Shamansky has raised $1 million so far in his bid to take down an incumbent in a district where Bush only got 51% of the vote in 2004, and the race is picking up momentum since the Foley scandal.
Texas 23 (Bonilla)
Washington 05 (McMorris) GÇô This race continues to be an intriguing upset possibility.
Wyoming at-large (Cubin) GÇô Trauner has a good ad out, and this race may be a lot hotter than people think.
10 races on the fringe
Arizona 01 (Renzi), California 50 (Bilbray), Florida 08 (Keller), Iowa 02 (Leach), Michigan 08 (Rogers), Nebraska 03x, New York 03 (King), Pennsylvania 04 (Hart), Virginia 10 (Wolf), Virginia 11 (Davis)
**This article will change over time. As I have updated lists, I find that some candidates havenGÇÖt gotten the fundraising or the press going to really be competitive as of yet. While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. As the campaign season moves ahead, some races will become closer and some will become more distant. I will make further updates in mid-October.
***This list does not count VermontGÇÖs open seat, where a victory for Democrat Peter Welch would take the seat from Independent to Democrat. However, this race is almost like a Democratic seat since Sanders caucused with the Democrats.
Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Washington Post key races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Key House Races
House Balance of Power Scorecard
Politics1
Larry Sabato (Has fundraising numbers
Election Projection.com
Davis is amazingly outspoken on economic issues, especially trade and he is right. He knows 1st hand what is really going on and wants to do something about it.
He had $$ so he could get his message out but BEFORE FoleyGate, in a gerrymandered district, tailored for Dick Chaney's boy Tom Reynolds, it was a dead heat.
Barry Welsh also has a working America economic message, very conservative district, but he has gotten zero love from Democrats to help him. I think that is a terrible mistake. It's another area devastated by bad trade policy, offshore outsourcing, insourcing and is highest in personal bankruptcy.
Manassas, Va.: Re: Tom Davis. I've received two mailings recently from the Davis campaign that I view as misleading and unfair.... Tom Davis should run on his record, including his support of the president, and not try to purposefully confuse voters.Marc Fisher: I saw those flyers--they look like standard issue GOP diatribes against any generic Democrat. They portray Andrew Hurst as just another liberal nut job and use rhetoric that you wouldn't think would sell in a very moderate district like Davis's in Fairfax and Prince William counties. My guess is that not a lot of thought went into those flyers.
Damn those liberal states!!!!!!!
Yes I am frustrated because I hear nothing from the rest of the state. I know Democrats out number Republicans in this state. Most of them have given up and do not vote anymore because we are not organised and just seem to pat each other on the back for a "Heck of a job Brownie", forgetting we do not get out the VOTE. The Primary in June proved that and all the other races in 2000, 04 and 05 prove that.
The true story is finally becoming a picture. Warner and Kaine did not get voted in because Democrats voted, they got voted in because the center and moderate Republicans voted for the best Candidate.
We have the best story to tell and we are not doing it. We have finally figured out how to blast them back, now can we figure out how to tell the rest of the story. Can we show we are a positive party and not the label of Liberals, which has been pinned on us. Has anyone really looked uop what Conservative really means in the Dictionary? Just why aren't we bashing the Republicans on that name. I know that everytime I hear a Republican called on the Dictionary meaning they always respond, "We are not that type of Conservative"
The phrase during WWII was " We have woken a Sleeping Giant". Did George Bush and his cronies wake another sleeping giant? I think so, but we need to get organised better.
Regardless of the talking points of Davis - he is part of the culture of corruption - that is going down - it is time to take this seat away.
But guess what - we are doing lit drops and phone banking for Andy and he is still not known.
Please donate, donate, donate.
How many Dems are in the 11th? 70,000 dems in Fairfax - or the 11th - contribute $10.00 = $700,000.
What is wrong - get out there and ask for $$$$. Post on every democratic web site.
Donate to and volunteer for Andy Hurst today.