There are a lot of polls out there, but very few that are worth a heck of a lot as far as I can tell. In fact, as Eric has pointed out, it's possible that none of them are worth much of anything in the current Webb-Allen Senate race. Stil, for my money, I'll take two polls any day: Mason-Dixon and Gallup. Also, Pew does great work, but I haven't seen any polling by them in Virginia this year. I've pretty much given up on Zogby; any poll that bounces around THAT much can't be worth much. And I'm not sure what to make of SurveyUSA or Rasmussen.
Anyway, we now have a new poll by Gallup, just a week or so after Mason-Dixon showed the Webb-Allen race tied (43%-43%). Now, according to Gallup, it's 48%-45% Allen over Webb, a 3-point margin that falls well within the poll's 5-percentage-point margin of sampling error. In other words, Webb vs. Allen appears to be very close to a tie ballgame. And, most importantly, Allen remains below 50% - as he does in most other polls - ominous news for an incumbent.
One interesting bit of information from the Gallup poll is that Virginia likely voters, by a 13-point margin (37%-24%), say they would be "more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes [President] Bush" than one who supports Bush. Yet, only 2% of likely voters - 1% for each candidate - actually say they will be casting their vote to support or oppose Bush. Another interesting, somewhat strange, factoid is that, in this year of "change" and dissatisfaction with the country's direction, only 8% of likely voters indicate that they are voting "for change" in this election. Huh?
Finally, 19% of likely voters cite the fact that Allen is "doing a good job" in their decision to vote for him, with 13% pointing to the fact that he is "doing a poor job." Given these findings, it seems to me that we Webb supporters have more work to do in letting the public know about George Allen's miserable record of near-lockstep voting with George W. Bush, his opposition to stem cell research, his support for record federal spending and deficits, his blind support for the Iraq War, his opposition to raising the minimum wage, his coddling of big oil companies and other rich contributors, his consistent support for polluters over the environment, etc. If we do that, I believe we win. If we don't do that, I believe we lose.
So, my strong recommendation is that we all get out there and tell all our friends, neighbors, etc. about the simple fact that Allen EQUALS Bush, almost 100% of the time in terms of his voting record. Given that fact, if Virginians are pleased with George W. Bush, they should absolutely vote to re-elect George Allen. If they are NOT satisfied with George W. Bush or the direction of the country under Bush's Presidency, they should run to the polls and vote for Jim Webb, the clear alternative to BushAllen's failed policies the past 6 years. The choice on November 7 is clear: if you want change, it's Jim Webb. If you want to keep things going the way they've been going, it's George Allen. To me, the choice is obvious.
P.S. Oh, by the way, this poll was taken BEFORE the Mark Foley/Republican Congress male page sex scandal broke. It also came before Jim Webb started heavy TV advertising for the first time. Now, we'll see what happens!
Anyway, here's a fine photo of the 500 people who turned out in Rappahanock County to see Jim:
A nice story from the Times-Community chain:
Looking out over the crowd of more than 500 citizens who came to show their support for Jim Webb's candidacy for the United States Senate, former U.S. senator Bennett Johnston (D-LA) declared, "There's energy in Jim Webb's campaign. The momentum is building.***Ending his "pep talk" with a quote from Thomas Jefferson, Johnston prompted Webb's supporters to remember, "One man with courage makes a majority."***Other speakers, such as candidate for Congress Jim Nachman, and host Ben Jones, who introduced Webb, reminded the crowd that their candidate is seasoned in national security issues with unmatched experience. Webb, Ben Jones pointed out, won the Navy Cross, a Silver Star, two Bronze Stars, and two Purple Hearts for his service in Vietnam. He also was Secretary of the Navy under President Reagan.
Webb, accusing Senator George Allen of being a "rubber stamp" for the administration, laid out the political differences which separate him from the incumbent. Three areas stand out, he said: (1) support for the president's war policy in Iraq and Afghanistan that even the Pentagon and CIA now recognize as a flawed and failed policy;(2) our deteriorating reputation in the international community; and (3) Allen's failure to use his influence with the administration to act decisively on domestic issues such as the shrinking job market, immigration, and rising economic inequality in our country.As the speeches ended and Webb's audience rose to applaud his talk, host Ben Jones jokingly observed, "There has not been this much excitement in Harris Hollow since the police were out searching for that escaped convict!" After a good laugh, everyone resumed socializing and lining up for food and refreshments-all on a perfect, sun-filled afternoon in Rappahannock County.
***
Scene from Grumpy Old Men:
Brian McNeill, for my money, should be writing for the Post.
http://www.connectio... As you might imagine, he gets various answers from interested parties. He got an interesting quote out of the real "Not Larry Sabato", Professor Mark Rozell from George Mason.
The negative campaigning has brought more attention to the increasingly competitive Senate race and will likely increase turnout on Election Day, Rozell said.
"Negative campaigning can mobilize voters because it heightens interest," he said. "I expect the turnout will certainly be better than expected and possibly higher than usual."
Traditional wisdom says Democrats do better under high turnout scenarios.
TN_GOV Gallup Oct 6 Bredesen (D) 66%, Bryson (R) 26%
RI-GOV Gallup Oct 6 Carcieri (R) 47%, Fogarty (D) 46%
MD-GOV Gallup Oct 6 O'Malley (D) 53%, Ehrlich (R) 41%
VA-SEN Gallup Oct 6 Allen (R) 48%, Webb (D) 45%
TN-SEN Gallup Oct 6 Ford (D) 50%, Corker (R) 45%
RI-SEN Gallup Oct 6 Whitehouse (D) 50%, Chafee (R) 39%
NJ-SEN Gallup Oct 6 Menendez (D) 46%, Kean (R) 43%
MO-SEN Gallup Oct 6 McCaskill (D) 48%, Talent (R) 45%
MD-SEN Gallup Oct 6 Cardin (D) 54%, Steele (R) 39%
MI-GOV EPIC-MRA Oct 5 Granholm (D) 46%, DeVos (R) 40%
MI-SEN EPIC-MRA Oct 5 Stabenow (D) 48%, Bouchard (R) 35%
NY-SEN Quinnipiac Oct 5 Clinton (D) 66%, Spencer (R) 31%
WI-GOV Research 2000 Oct 5 Doyle (D) 48%, Green (R) 42%
FL-13 Hamilt. Beattie (D) Oct 5 Jennings (D) 50%, Buchanan (R) 38%
Congress Time Oct 5 Democrats 54%, Republicans 39%
I think John Cole of the Scranton Times-Tribune got this exactly right:
Lots of low fruit.
What is the Margin of Error and the # of people polled? I studied this stuff in grad school, so these numbers are just as critical as the way they do the poll, or anything else. Thanks.
Results are based on telephone interviews with 890 Registered voters in Virginia, aged 18+, conducted September 27-October 1, 2006.� For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is �4 percentage points.Results for likely voters in Virginia are based on the subsample of 597 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2006 Midterm Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is �5 percentage points.� Based on past voting history in Virginia, turnout is assumed to be 35% of the voting age population.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Will the Dems take the House? Will Jim Webb win in Virginia and be the 6th seat that also brings the Senate to the Dems? I don't know if I can stand another dissappointment like in 2004, after following the Democratic primaries from the very beginning. If George Allen wins, it's going to feel like Christmas was cancelled.
How are the rest of you holding up? Am I just being a wuss?
I wish I could get people to see how important it is. My friends and colleagues and family are all a little perplexed by my passion for this race. They aren't satisfied, but they're not really paying that much attention to just how bad things are. They complain about their expenses, about the war, about other things, but a lot of them are fairly conservative and worry that going with Webb will make them somehow unpatriotic. Many of them are middle class, middle aged, and middle of the road. Their apathy is like a giant marshmallow -- so hard to cut through.