RK ARCHIVE - Poll Dancing

A poll has them tied. And the Webb supporters do the happy dance while the Allen team nitpicks minutiae to prove their guy will win.

The next poll has Webb down by 11. Switch partners, promenade around the circle, and do the polka. Allen happy dance, Webb got the blues.

This wouldn't be so bothersome if there was consistency to the polls. But there isn't. Not even within the same polling firm at times.

The solution some people have come up with is to average all of them. Sorry, that has absolutely no statistical validity and if it turns out to be the true number it's purely by coincidence.

We all expect variation in polls - that's natural. What's not so natural is the inconsistent swings that were seeing poll after poll after poll. Last Presidential election there was some play in the polls, but there was also a great deal of believable consistency.

Perhaps the electorate is really confused. Perhaps the pollsters are off their game or trying new methodologies. Perhaps the sample sizes aren't big enough, or are self selected, or are improperly distributed.

What I do know is that I've had enough. I can't speak for anyone else, but I am going to ignore the polls until they find some consistency or until Nov 8 - the day after the only poll that counts is conducted.

Comments

It's Always About the Women (Catzmaw - 10/5/2006 5:12:49 PM)

The huge poll variation tells me that the enormous negative campaigning about women by the Allen campaign has had an impact and it is absolutely incumbent upon Webb's people to respond on all fronts. First, I don't know why no one is talking about what the article REALLY said. The "horny woman's dream" statement was unfortunate, but that was NOT the tone of the whole article. Overall, the article talked about whether or not women should be in combat positions. It wasn't one big screed against women, so I don't know why we're allowing the Allen campaign to frame it that way. Has anyone in the Webb campaign bothered to re-read the article? Is there anywhere where the article itself can be accessed on the web? I haven't been able to find it, but let's re-examine it.

Second, there should be at least some discussion of Allen's fervent opposition to women attending VMI in the 90s. We're all discussing it here in the blogs, but no one's talking about it out there in voter-land. It should be framed as a direct answer to George Allen's whiny women ad, along with an explanation of the rest of his record as it pertains to women. BTW, I would suggest steering clear of the abortion rights issue. Contrary to accepted wisdom not every potential woman supporter of Webb is a supporter of abortion rights. A lot more ground can be gained by talking about things like universal health care, education, and minimum wage increases, all issues which tend to cross ideological lines to some extent. As soon as you start talking pro-choice, pro-stem cell you stand a chance of alienating more conservative women who might otherwise be attracted to Webb.

Third, let's openly ask the question of where we are going to get sufficient military re-enlistment to support the current drain on our forces. Some of these people are on their third and fourth deployment. Sure, the young guys out of high school may still be signing up, but how about the inevitable attrition of line officers and NCOs? We've almost spent as long in Iraq as we did on World War II. Enlistment fatigue is bound to set in, especially since we are stretching our VA hospitals and benefits past their limits and will see a significant deterioration in their quality and availability. If we continue in this war for another three years you're going to start hearing the "d" word: draft.

Waiting to see what the post-Foley polls come up with.