The poll covered 15 seats currently held by the GOP. The Dem candidates are ahead in 11.
The poll was conduced during the weekend, when the Foley stuff was hitting the fan. (The fan is increasing speed as we speak.)
IL-06: Open GOP Seat (Henry Hyde retiring)
Tammy Duckworth (D): 43%
Peter Roskam (R): 38%
Duckworth is the woman who lost both legs in Iraq.
OH-18: Open GOP Seat (Bob Ney's old seat)
Zack Space (D): 45%
Joy Padgett (R): 36%
CT-04: Chris Shays, GOP Incumbent
Diane Farrell (D): 46%
Shays: 41%
CO-07: Open Seat
Ed Perlmutter (D): 45%
Rick O'Donnell (R): 34%
IN-09: Mike Sodrel, GOP Incumbent
Baron Hill (D): 46%
Sodrel: 38%
IN-02: Chris Chocola, GOP Incumbent
Joe Donnelly (D): 49%
Chocola: 39%
NC-11: Charles Taylor, GOP Incumbent
Heath Shuler (D): 51%
Taylor: 40%
AZ-08: Open Seat (Jim Kolbe retiring)
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 45%
Randy Graf (R): 37%
CT-02: Rob Simmons, GOP Incumbent
Simmons: 44% (R)
Joe Courtney (D): 41%
IA-01: Open Seat
Mike Whalen (R): 47%
Bruce Braley (D): 34%
KY-04: Geoff Davis, GOP Incumbent
Davis: 42% (R)
Ken Lucas (D): 36%
MN-06: Open Seat (Mark Kennedy's seat)
Michelle Bachmann (R): 46% (unfortunately, Bachmann is somewhat to the right of Attila the Hun)
Patty Wetterling (D): 43%
NM-01: Heather Wilson, GOP Incumbent
Patricia Madrid (D): 50%
Wilson: 40%
PA-06: Jim Gerlach, GOP Incumbent
Lois Murphy (D): 43%
Gerlach: 41%
And in VIRGINIA!!!!
Incumbent
Phil Kellam (D): 46%
Drake: 42%
And in my old district up in Pa., where all the top pro-family GOP are campaigning for the guy (Sherwood) who physically abused his mistress, another pickup is possible according to this Oct. 3 Lycoming College poll:
Carney (D) 47%
Sherwood (R) 38%
Chris Carney's creds: Lt. Commander Navy Reserves,
Senior Terrorism and Intelligence Advisor at the Pentagon