"In Virginia, a new independent poll shows Sen. George Allen (R) with just a four-point lead over former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb (D). While we have been skeptical about this race for months (Webb seems at times to be an unwilling candidate and inconsistent fundraiser), we can't ignore numbers like this. So for the first time this cycle, Virginia makes the Line.
As always, the No. 1 race is the most likely to switch parties. Kudos and criticisms are welcome in the comments section below.
To the Line!
10. Virginia: The Fix lives in Virginia, but living and working inside the Beltway makes it tough to analyze just how much damage Allen's "macaca" moment did to his chances of winning reelection. According to a new Mason-Dixon poll, the answer is quite a bit. While Allen still holds a lead over Webb, it has narrowed considerably since earlier this summer, and now even Republicans privately acknowledge that the incumbent is in jeopardy. Allen's campaign is taking this race very seriously -- as evidenced by the press conference on Wednesday that drew attention to an article Webb penned in the late 1970s that argued against women serving in the military. We're interested to see how Webb -- not a thick-skinned person by nature -- weathers this body blow from Allen. (Previous ranking: N/A)"