RK ARCHIVE - New SurveyUSA Poll: So Much for Allen's "Momentum"

Breaking it down by gender, Webb's winning by 8 points, 49%-41%, among women. You think this might have been part of the motivation for the Allen campaign's smarmy little press conference today? (note: even among grizzled veteran political reporters who I talked to after the Richmond event today, the feeling was that Allen had taken this race into the sewer). Among men, Allen leads 54%-40%; obviously Webb has some work to do here.

Webb and Allen are essentially tied in all age groups except for the youngest, 18-34 demographic. Among young people, Allen is leading 51%-38%. I don't quite understand that one; anyone care to guess why this might be the case?

In terms of race, Allen leads by 11 points (53%-42%) among whites, while getting trounced among blacks (63%-22% for Webb). And something tells me this is going to get better very quickly. Stay tuned for some great news from the Webb campaign on this front!

One area that surprises me is the polarization of support by political party. Right now, there's not much sign of Democrats supporting Allen or Republicans supporting Webb. Given that, the key group in this election could be independents, and right now, they're supporting Webb by 8 points (45%-37%).

Finally, in terms of regional support, Webb's creaming Allen by 18 points (55%-37%) in Northern Virginia. In the other regions, Allen's ahead, but not by much in Southeastern Virginia (4 points) or in Shenandoah (6 points). The big Allen lead is in Central Virginia, where he's ahead by 20 points (58%-38%). Definitely some work to do there.

Overall, though, this poll is great news, showing the race tied even though the Webb campaign has barely spent a penny on advertising, while Allen has spent a lot. If you look at the average of the last few polls, I think you'd have to conclude that this race is tied, or possibly a slight lead (2 or 3 points?) for Allen. And Allen remains under 50% in almost all of them, which is not a good place for a well-known incumbent to be.

[UPDATE: Political Wire says, "Key finding: The impact of Allen's "macaca" comments should now have now been fully digested by the electorate, and the narrowing of the race appears not to have been temporary."]

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign. The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.

Comments

All the 18-34's have to go on is.. (bladerunner - 9/13/2006 7:39:33 PM)

what they've seen with his ads. You know all the friendly bull shit he does. The youngins can't comprehend or haven't experienced some of the HATE Allen has dispursed. It's coming out though with his Maccaca comment.

Anyone around long enough knows that Allen is a shit head--and will smile, shake your hand and then stick the knife in you. He's a mean SOB--but he's an awesome actor.

I hope Webb doesn't fall for any of Allen's niceties at the "Meet the Press" debate this Sunday cause they won't be sincere. Webb should look at Allen as man that would be willing to slit his throat if it would mean winning.

Young people support (JennyE - 9/13/2006 7:54:41 PM)

Could be that Allen is doing much better voter outreach on college campuses. He has the cash to spend.

Also, the Webb campaign needs to hammer home Allen's votes to cut student loans. Education and high quality jobs/good employment are some of the top concerns on young voters minds.

I like the poll numbers. The positive trend for Webb is what's most important.

Student Loans Issue Should be Huge (Greg - 9/13/2006 8:45:29 PM)

Somebody really ought to go and calculate the net present value of the increase in future payments for the average college grad with loans. It would be equvalent to setting them back many thousands of dollars on the day they graduate -- particularly important when most people need to save for their own retirement in the absence of defined benefit pensions -- this sets them back several years in terms of accumulating savings.

I'll do it if someone will check my math... (zwerver - 9/14/2006 4:43:00 AM)

...and point me to some figures regarding Allen's votes on the issue for a starting point on the numbers. A total dollar amount along the lines of X-many dollars in loans, compare it to what could be invested at the graduation date for retirement assuming a conservative rate of return, reinvestment of gains and dividends, inflation adjusted, etc...for example an extra $10,000 of loans if you happen to graduate today which would have been $150,000 at retirement. "Allen voted to take $150,000 out of your pocket", if I'm following you correctly.

Could be that younger (Mark - 9/13/2006 9:58:28 PM)

people are somewhat still under the influence of familial (parental) voting patterns and propaganda, in the case of R's.

I know kids like to rebel, but when it comes to something they know nothing about, they will parrot the nearest thing that sounds reasonable in a split-second, thereby supposedly making themselves sound informed or smarter in some way.

Also, the 22% black polling for Allen; if the sample size for blacks was undersized, the percentages would be exagerated, and the MOE would be horrendous.

NLS is reporting Rasmussen is out (Doug Garnett-Deakin - 9/13/2006 8:23:01 PM)

Any confirmation to this?

I'm really surprised about the 18-34, but that sampling size is smaller, and the crosstabs are always hard to break down. The good news about this is that the younger the voter the less likely they are to actually vote. I'm not saying its good they don't vote, but it is a fact that they let down candidates. Joe Scarborough warned about that stat before the Kerry v Bush election.

Black vote. (va.walter - 9/13/2006 9:17:31 PM)

Allen is polling 22% among black voters? That is shocking to me, especially since it's pre-Lambert. How can 22% of black voters support Allen? This is especially concerning to me because I don't know what we do to combat Lambert. We can trot out lots of our own "black leaders." The problem with that is that they're most likely Democrats and the press won't report it as a big deal like they did Lambert. Even Wilder, while a most endorsee and one who would generate some buzz, would be covered by the MSM as one Democrat endorsing another.

A Wilder endorsement (mr science - 9/14/2006 12:05:22 AM)

would be a huge help to Webb among black voters, if these numbers are correct (though I'm dubious to their accuracy). It would appear many need more convincing on Webb, considering the damage that was done during the primary with Miller's attacks. If Wilder endorsed Webb, it would go a long way with those voters.

Reagan Ad (Newport News Dem - 9/14/2006 8:17:11 AM)

This is prior to the Reagan ad which is like waiving a confederate flag in the face of African Americans.

Those with whom I speak are mad as hell about it. Influential AA politicians are not pushing theri constitueants to get on board. This is a serious problem.

Now with spell check! (Newport News Dem - 9/14/2006 8:19:52 AM)

Those with whom I speak are mad as hell about it. Influential AA politicians are not pushing their constituents to get on board. This is a serious problem.

Look at the Generation X and Y numbers (msnook - 9/13/2006 9:38:18 PM)

Allen is winning 51-38 among 18-34, but he isn't over 50 in either GenX or GenY, and Webb isn't under 40 in either one. What's the deal?

Even by SUSA's own numbers, adding GenX and GenY together, it's about 46-43 for Allen. I just can't figure out where the 51-38 number could possibly be coming from.

On second look, GenY is 5% of the sample, GenX is 26%, 18-34 is only 18%. So GenX and GenY put together are 172% the size of the 18-34 age range... still doesn't really make sense.

Glad to see that undecideds are in Democratic demographics. SUSA gets sort-of-decideds to choose, so the trend should be stronger than they show.

Survey USA nailed Md Senate result (PM - 9/13/2006 10:04:40 PM)

Rep. Ben Cardin looks to have won by 8 points over former congressman and former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume, 45.8% - 37.7%. The Final RCP Average in this race pegged Cardin with a nine-point lead so this final is pretty much in line with expectations. Survey USA's final poll of 47% Cardin, 38% Mfume looks to have nailed this race.

If you look at Survey USA for Senate, President, or Governor (doctormatt06 - 9/13/2006 11:35:02 PM)

The youth vote is always the one that swings the most, you forget that a lot of us live on cell phones and don't have a home phone to call, so to get an accurate sample of us is difficult. I would say if its looking WAYYY good for Webb or a little good for Allen that would be wrong. Campuses are always democratic bastions. ANd most non-college attending young people don't vote. So it will move back towards Webb.

WAIT JUST ONE MINUTE (DukieDem - 9/13/2006 11:53:34 PM)

Anyone see that they put support for the marriage amendment at 68-29? Isn't that about 10 points higher than anything else we've seen?

Anyone think they've oversampled GOP leaning voters?

Young ones (DukieDem - 9/14/2006 12:58:27 AM)

I agree.

Also, Allen leading Webb 51-34 among Hispanics? This poll shows a lot in the way of opportunities.

Sample size way too small (pitin - 9/14/2006 2:25:43 AM)

only 2% of sample is Hispanic, well 2% of 467 is 9.34, so they ask nine people what they think, hardly representative. As far as the 18-34, you get 84.06 voters, so 84 respondents. Not as small, but still WAY too small, that's about 20 per regional area. don't read too much into crosstabs the sample sizes are just too small.