Tim 2005: Mark 2001 or John 2004?
By: Lowell
Published On: 3/19/2005 2:00:00 AM
In this election, is Tim Kaine more like Mark or John -- Warner or Kerry, that is? Here are Warner's 2001 vs. Kerry's 2004 percentages in a few Southwest Virginia counties: Buchanan (66% for Warner '01 vs. 54% for Kerry '04), Dickenson (61% vs. 51%), Russell (60% vs. 45%), Wise (59% vs. 41%), Giles (57% vs. 41%), Tazewell (54% vs. 41%), Lee (53% vs. 41%), Pulaski (53% vs. 37%), Craig (50% vs. 35%). In Scott County, the home of the Kilgore clan, Warner won a respectable 43% of the vote in 2001, while Kerry won only 34% in 2004. In other words, Warner did quite well in Southwest Virginia, while John Kerry got totally trounced.
Meanwhile, in Northern Virginia, Warner and Kerry were running about even (i.e., 54% for Warner in Fairfax County vs. 53% for Kerry; 68% in Arlington County for both Warner 2001 and Kerry 2004). In the city of Richmond, it was 73% for Warner in 2001, 70% for Kerry in 2004. In the Hampton Roads area, Kerry generally ran about 3-6 percentage points behind Warner, but still outpolled Bush in the region. How a candidate does in Northern Virginia, Richmond City and Hampton Roads is critically important to his or her chances of victory, given that, combined, these three areas account for two-thirds of Virginia's population. Overall, Warner and Kerry performed comparably in these "Big 3" regions, but Warner far outperformed Kerry in the rest of the state. As a result, Warner won Virginia overall with 52% of the vote in 2001, while Kerry lost big time, with only a 45% share, in 2001.
True, 2001 and 2004 were different elections. Most obviously, of course, the candidates were different. In addition, voter particpation rates were much different. Virginia's gubernatorial contests, of course, take place in odd-numbered "off years," when there are no Congressional or Presidential races. Normally, voter turnout rates are highest in Presidential election years and lowest in off years. Not surpringly, then, statewide voter turnout was 47.8% (see graph, by Mark Rush of Washington and Lee University below) in the 2001 Mark Warner vs. Mark Earley contest, compared to 71.4% turnout in 2004 for the Bush vs. Kerry race. 
Interestingly, although conventional wisdom suggests that Democratic candidates are normally helped when greater numbers of voters participate, Kerry in 2004 did far worse in Virginia than Warner did in 2001 despite a 24 percentage point increase in voter turnout between the two elections. The explanation is simple: Kerry got trounced in rural parts of the state, while Warner held his own (or better).
How did Tim Kaine do in 2001 running for Lt. Governor compared to Mark Warner at the top of the ticket? Overall, Warner outperformed Kaine by about 3 percentage points statewide in 2001, with a 5-point victory (52%-47%) for Warner over Mark Earley compared to just a 2-point margin (50%-48%) in the Tim Kaine vs. Jay Katzen race. The big difference was in Southwest Virginia, where Kaine consistently underperformed Warner by 3-6 points. In Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, Kaine did about 1 or 2 percentage points worse than Warner. Not surprisingly, Kaine did about 3 percentage points better in his home town of Richmond than Warner did.
Despite differences between the 2001 and 2004 elections, the question remains: will Tim Kaine perform more like Mark Warner in 2001 or John Kerry in 2004? In particular, there are two major questions for Kaine: 1) how will he do in Southwest Virginia in a lower turnout election this year; and 2) will voters who up in large numbers for him in the "Big 3" -- Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, and Richmond? So far, based on the Survey USA poll released about a week ago, we've got to say that it looks like Kaine has his work cut out for him. According to SUSA, Kaine is losing to Kilgore 50%-28% in Southwest Virginia (and 59%-24% in Central Virginia). No two ways about it: this does not look great for the Kaine campaign, at least for the moment.
But, before the SUSA poll has us Kaine supporters breaking out in cold sweats, let's keep a few things in mind. First, it's very early right now, with a long campaign ahead of us. A lot can happen over the next 7 months. Second, most people - aside from political junkies who write and read blogs - know relatively little about either Tim Kaine or Jerry Kilgore at the moment. Our guess is that they will grow to like Kilgore less the more they get to know him, and the opposite for Tim Kaine. Third, Tim Kaine doesn't have to win in Southwest Virginia, only perform respectably while racking up large margins in Richmond, Hampton Roads, and Northern Virginia. Fourth, given the far lower turnout seen in gubernatorial compared to presidential elections, this eleciton will be all about who turns out their base. And, frankly, a poll done in March is highly unlikely to have anything to say on this subject. Finally, there's the Mark Warner factor, as the popular governor presumably throws his full support behind Kaine in Southwest Virginia as well as the rest of the state. That will definitely help Kaine, but to what degree is the big question, given that Warner will not be at the top of the ticket as he was in 2001.
All this brings us to a snapshot analysis of the Kaine campaign strategy as it stands thus far. As we see it here at RaisingKaine, Kaine's strategy - at least based on the campaign kickoff speech we watched in Herndon on Wednesday - is clearly to run as Mark Warner II. Tramslation: fiscally conservative, business friendly, tough on crime, and strong on "values." In a red state like Virginia, running as a moderate or even conservative Democrat is certainly a defensible strategy. In fact, it may be the only POSSIBLE strategy for a Democrat to win statewide these days.
The challenge for Kaine, in our opinion, will be convincing rural and exurban voters that he truly is Mark Warner Part Deux and not John Kerry Redux. At the same time, he will need to figure out a way to stoke enthusiasm and turnout among the Democratic base, particularly African Americans, Hispanics, and women. Kaine's success in doing these things -- plus, of course, a strong grassroots effort aimed at "RaisingKaine" -- will determine whether, come election day, he turns out to be Mark Warner 2001 or John Kerry 2004.
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