P.S. This poll was taken BEFORE Jim Webb began running his first TV ad, the one with Ronald Reagan. Amazing.
[UPDATE: Zogby says:
In the race for Virginia's Senate seat, George Allen...had been polling well above James Webb...; Allen led by about 11 percentage points in July. But the lay of the land changed considerably after Allen's controversial comments about a rival's campaign worker. In the mid-August poll, Webb took a one-percentage-point lead, and the latest numbers show him ahead by a seven-point margin.
Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign. The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.
This is truly amazing. I'm really eager to see all the breakdowns on this, but regardless, that's incredible. Just incredible.
FYI, the link just takes you to a WSJ page, nothing with poll results on it that I can spot.
As soon as Allen realizes his positive ads are going nowhere, he'll be forced to go crazy negative, and then he'll look like a mean, intolerant, bully. He may even Kilgore himself if he and his team get over enthusiastic with those negative ads. Which all plays to Webb.
This is awesome. Our Blacksburg house party- at a friend's this time, drew well over three times the people as our first. Course, school is back in and we had more lead time, but it looks like there were LOTS more state wide. I won't give away the numbers, but things have got to be looking WAY up fundraising wise.
And everyone loves the introductory ad.
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII-OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just checking on some of the people who complained about the Webb ad. Remember Ed Meese? He's on a board of a right wing group (called the Patrick Henry Center) with Bob Barr -- the latter of course was one of the politicians who was cozy with the CCC.
Small world.
But even if this poll is a little off, there's one thing for sure...this is one of the closest races in the country, and we've got the momentum.
Thanks, Lowell, for getting this out so quickly.
If your name is Weed or Webb, you honor the service of our fighting men and women - youv'e been there, and you have kids there. Why do Virgil Goode and George Allen still dishonor it by voting against [list here your favorite anti-serviceman vote] and for [list parallel vote here]?
Also, however good the news, don't let's sit on our laurels and pat ourselves on the back or, with almst 2 months still to go, the turtle may still overtake the hare.
Any chance that Webb's wife will become more visible, despite her condition? I saw her in BV yesterday and she's a *huge* asset; as pretty as could be, with a beguiling smile (a nice counterpoint to Jim, whose passion seems to be a tad too controlled) And, of course, there's nothing that speaks louder to the family values issues and the idea of a new hope for all of us, than that bump below her waist...
PS regarding the Zogby poll itself: several poll-watchers have pointed out in the past (in cases unrelated to this one) that, with the usual 3-4% "poll error", any poll which shows decimals in its results is likely to be a tad suspect (out to impress rather than accurate). So let's say the lead is 7 points, rather than 7.5. Still great news; let's hope it'll be in double digits in a week or two.
Go Jim !!!
Total Phreaking Hero !!!
Now my buddy Jason is going over there in the next couple of weeks and I'm sick about it. Jason's not so young these days. I've known him since he was a kid "blues hound" who used to follow me around when my band was playing anywhere he and some of his VMI buddies to get to. More a son, than a friend, he helped me raise my daugher, listened to my woes, told me his, and when he came home from the 1st Gulf war, brought me a brand new American Standard Stratocaster. I treasure it and don't even like to take it on the road with me because I couldn't replace the sentimental value if it were lost or stolen.
Ah jeez--I just get all weepy these days, thinking about lost soldiers, and our sons and daughters going over there.
I don't know if a lot of Vietnam vets are having some old "memories" or not, but I've been feeling a whole lot like I did after I came home. Worse now, watching the young ones go. It was a lot easier when I was invincible than it is now. All I can do now is sit and worry.
We have to get Jim Webb elected and find more candidates like him in 2008. Too damned many people in government haven't had to make even one sacrifice to get to where they are. I want the policy makers in this country to know what it means when they vote yes to give war-making authority to the President. I'm sick of seeing friends and neighbors doing all the fighting while these incompetent chickenhawks do all the big talking.
Sorry folks, it's gray and raining here in Louisville today, and my thoughts have been a tad blue. My daughter, Marea is getting married next month and I wonder what kind of world she will bring her children into.
And it would fit nicely with Markos's front-page story on the Mason-Dixon resulsts.
However, the M-D poll is great news. This poll was leaning R though. Last year, their last poll had kaine lead by only 2 points(have to check though) and Kaie won by 6.
I think the most accurate guess based on other polls is Webb 44: Allen 46.
MethodologyThese polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company's Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.
Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.
Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.
The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 19 states (AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups. In Connecticut, 180 phone calls were used to supplement the Interactive polls.
Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.9 to 4.3% percentage points. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.
Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 26 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.
As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.
Zogby collects a lot of demographic information during the poll. Sure, someone can lie. But you can lie to a telephone pollster too, e.g., saying you're a conservative when in fact you're a liberal to skew the results.
And to remain on Zogby's list you have to be a thorough respondent. I just waded through about 100 questions on car insurance. SnoreZZZZZZ.
The Post political writers denigrate these "new generation" polls because they're traditionalists, to a fault.
I almost feel his poll is made up. 2% phone interview is just laughable.
As kos said, his results were atrocious in 2004.
i now feel that i am involved in the process and that it is a sound process. i may be overly optimistic, but i think that today is a good day for optimism.
Allen's going to get VERY negative. VERY.
The fight has just begun, we are in a war with the Allen camp until 7pm, November 7th.
Oorah!!!!!
I hope a few more polling firms come out showing leads by Webb soon.
You know, I would tend to agree that this poll is probably off. However, given the state of our nation, and the demoralized right-wing of the Republican Party likely staying home in droves on Nov. 7th, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't that far off.
I do think Webb is going to win this with a similar tally as Kaine did. Maybe he won't win Loudoun and Prince William both (might squeak Loudoun out), but I think he'll do much better in SWVA than Kaine did. And he'll certainly do better in Hampton Roads on the military issues alone.
I think he might do a bit worse in the Richmond area--Tim had such a big edge there having been a popular mayor.
Go Webb!
It is a matter of Webb being able to define himself but we seem to be winning that battle. Webb is a very easy sell in Loudoun County.
AACCCCKKK!!!! Talk about a horrible memory....OK off to bed (if I can sleep after that!).
Plus there are many high tech/middle class workers here who are not happy with Allen's stances and have become politically active (AOL ain't exactly growing).
There is also growing discontent with our repub supervisors and their subservience to developers (clogging our already crowded streets). It is not a good time to be a repub in Loudoun County (and it is getting worse).
Population, percent change, 1990 to 2000: 96.8%
Population, 2000: 169,599
Population, 2005 estimate: 255,518
That's right, Loudoun's population has increased from around 80,000 in 1990 to 255,518 in 2005. That's more than a tripling. This is NOT the same county it used to be.
I just wish this would have happened about 2-3 years earlier...then you wouldn't have that horrible Board of Supervisors, and I might have even beaten DEL-GOTTA-GO! It would've only taken another 200 votes, or 100 of his supporters to come to their senses!
I wish you all the best LCD! And having a wonderful Congressional candidate like Judy running out there will certainly help y'all out!
Kudos to the campaign staff as well.
And I wonder just whom/where Zogby has polled... I'm on their list (including the fact that I'm in VA), they send me some questionnaire or other to fill out (electronically) every week or so, but nothing this time. I'd have thought I'd be "prime material" to be grilled on the issue, especially since I'm un-affiliated and consider myself moderate (people who call me a "flaming liberal" are *wrong*
Name recognition and response was good for Webb.
We put out several yard signs, were pledged many votes and there is NOT 1 Allen yard sign in the whole neighborhood of Windsor Hills. This is esactly what happened when Shannon Valentine ran for delegate and she nearly carried this Ward ( lost by 34 votes).
DEMS have carried Lynchburg the last 3 major state wide elections and is a bellweather city for Virginia ( so says Tim Kaine and Mark Warner)!
This is looking good!
And if you're really into polling you know it's an art as well as a science. It matters, e.g., that you don't overpoll or underpoll certain groups. Phone polls have the problem of people ignoring calls that look like telemarketing calls, while computer based polls may be skewed towards highly literate or more affluent populations. And then one can question the ideology of the pollsters, e.g., James K. Clifton, who runs Gallup, contributes to the GOP.
Personally, I think the hullabaloo over the Reagan ad is going to help Webb. People will be looking for the ad, to make their own judgments.
Thanks, Dick Wadhams!
Fire Wadhams? No way.
He's had success in the past, but until he shows us something to be afraid of, I'd like him to stay just where he is. He's doing a great job from the Webb perspective.
This is all before Sunday August 13th and the FIRESTORM over his Macaca comments. Do you think they regret giving him that money now? Do you venture that some of them will contribute to Webb? You Bet! Why wouldn't they?
Reporting date:July 21, 2006.
» U.S. Senate, Virginia Contributions to Senator Allen
» Web Site
» Key Votes in Congress
» Full Voting Record
Totals By Sector
Sector Total PACs Indivs
Finance / Insur / RealEst $1,304,805 $302,336 $1,002,469
Misc Business $869,927 $250,799 $619,128
Other $867,469 $1,000 $866,469
Lawyers & Lobbyists $811,732 $86,800 $724,932
Communic / Electronics $719,862 $369,382 $350,480
Health $414,595 $173,100 $241,495
Transportation $409,756 $244,641 $165,115
Energy / Nat Resource $377,690 $223,450 $154,240
Ideology / Single-Issue $352,470 $330,261 $22,209
Agribusiness $312,286 $131,000 $181,286
Construction $282,688 $73,000 $209,688
Defense $108,275 $56,000 $52,275
Labor $34,500 $34,500 $0
Top 5 Metro Areas
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV $2,212,153
RICHMOND-PETERSBURG $804,863
NORFOLK-VIRGINIA BEACH-NEWPORT NEWS, VA-NC $443,636
NEW YORK $257,615
DALLAS $226,456
Top 10 Zip Codes
22101 (Mc Lean, VA) $204,071
22102 (Mc Lean, VA) $130,350
22066 (Great Falls, VA) $124,440
23226 (Richmond, VA) $106,671
22314 (Alexandria, VA) $96,600
23229 (Richmond, VA) $90,960
22309 (Alexandria, VA) $85,930
22207 (Arlington, VA) $82,446
24014 (Roanoke, VA) $80,450
23451 (Virginia Beach, VA) $79,450
In-State Vs Out-of-State
Grand Total: $7,080,430
In-State: 55.48%
Out-of-State: 44.51%
No State: 0.2%
Source of Receipts
PACs: $2,493,527
Individuals $8,758,679
Candidate $0
Other $984,445
Top 20 Contributors
Contributor Total PACs Indivs
1. McGuire, Woods et al $78,344 $9,944 $68,400
2. UST Inc $58,350 $7,000 $51,350
3. Capital One Financial $37,600 $10,000 $27,600
4. Norfolk Southern $35,275 $10,000 $25,275
5. Peabody Energy $34,100 $8,000 $26,100
6. VeriSign Inc $33,500 $10,000 $23,500
7. Verizon Communications $33,200 $19,000 $14,200
8. AG Spanos Companies $31,500 $0 $31,500
9. Wachovia Corp $31,450 $10,000 $21,450
10. Time Warner $27,300 $10,000 $17,300
11. Cassidy & Assoc / Interpublic Group $26,926 $426 $26,500
12. Comcast Corp $26,500 $13,000 $13,500
13. AT&T Inc $26,000 $21,000 $5,000
14. Silver Companies $25,300 $0 $25,300
15. US Government $24,340 $0 $24,340
16. Pence-Friedel Developers $23,600 $0 $23,600
17. Microsoft Corp $23,250 $10,000 $13,250
18. Blue Cross / Blue Shield $22,500 $14,000 $8,500
19. General Electric $22,100 $9,000 $13,100
20. Schulte, Roth & Zabel $21,900 $0 $21,900
Top 20 Industries
Retired $698,074
Lawyers/Law Firms $545,955
Real Estate $381,570
Computers/Internet $300,232
Securities & Investment $289,640
Lobbyists $265,777
Misc Finance $241,394
Leadership PACs $232,581
Business Services $226,200
Health Professionals $221,335
Insurance $156,436
TV/Movies/Music $133,290
Oil & Gas $127,150
Automotive $120,740
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $117,260
Tobacco $116,050
Electric Utilities $114,090
Commercial Banks $113,990
Air Transport $107,650
Food & Beverage $101,865
If a US corporation gets Allen-approved tax relief by offshoring, are they still eligible to contribute to sympathetic PACs, or to his campaign itself? It seems like there are ways around these rules.
If that is so, then a corporate suck-up like Allen might easily wind up advocating for certain issues contrary to the best interests of Virginians.
Does money open doors?
Does it allow you to write the bills?
Does it make you put stuff in the bills that normally would not be put in the bills?
What does Allen need all that money for?
Being a Senator means you will do what? Allen says he is "Bored", he sees the Senate as moving at the "Pace of A Sea Slug".
But he certainly took the money.
Our tiny amount of money and his huge pot, and I mean huge. We raised what, 14k in zip 22207 (my zip by the way) and Allen raised like 300k in McLean alone? (memory). My God, do they think he is moving mountains up there? He is BORED for GOsh sakes.
venting is good. Oh and by the way, I think 43% of all Allen's money came from out of state (memory). Talk about OUTSIDE THE BELTWAY!!