More to come. . . .
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc., for the Times-Dispatch, shows Allen ahead of Webb by 4 percentage points, 46 to 42 percent, but the Times-Dispatch notes that "[b]ecause the gap is within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error, the contest can be considered a tossup."
The Times-Dispatch's last survey, in July (that would be P.M.--Pre-Macaca), showed Allen leading by 16 percentage points.
The current poll was carried out Tuesday to Thursday of last week among 625 likely voters.
The poll shows that there's room for caution and renewed effort, as well as for encouragement, among Webb supporters.
For example, Webb is still an unknown figure to many likely voters:
Webb, in contrast to the engaging, seasoned Allen, is still unknown to a significant portion of the electorate -- 22 percent, down from 33 percent in July -- but perception of the Republican-turned-Democrat is evolving.His favorable rating has moved from 21 percent to 28 percent; his unfavorable has dipped from 11 percent to 7 percent.
The geography of preference is also noteworthy:
Webb is strongest in Northern Virginia, bulwark of back-to-back Democratic victories for governor. Webb's lead over Allen in the Washington suburbs is 13 percentage points.Hampton Roads, the southeastern terminus of Virginia's vote-rich urban-suburban crescent, is closely contested. Webb is pulling 42 percent to 44 percent for Allen.
Allen is comfortably ahead in the Richmond area, the seat of the state's conservative heartland, and Republican vote troves such as the Shenandoah Valley, Southside and Southwest Virginia.
So, then, Virginia Dems: we do indeed have a real race on our hands. Let's run it to win--because now, it's clear, Jim Webb really can be elected Virginia's next United States senator!
I'm sure Wadhams will hone in on Webb's 22 percent name recognition and 7 percent unfavorability. But he will be killing his candidate if he turns a blind eye on Allen's 41 percent favorability rating. Those numbers are devastating.
For Webb the question is all about boosting his name ID and increasing his campaign war chest. The Reagan ad should help on both fronts. The more competitive this race is, the more money flows in.
Also, as stated in an earlier post, Webb's competitiveness has repercussions in other toss-up races nationally. If the RNC and RSCC are forced to commit significant resources in Virginia, it means they will have less money to deal with increasingly competitive races in Montana, Arizona, Missouri and Tenessee.
Just skip one Starbucks or Happy Meal a day between now and the end of October. You, too, can make a difference...and look good when we're dancing in November.