Webb Gaining Fast in New Mason-Dixon Poll

By: Lowell
Published On: 9/8/2006 6:28:31 PM

Great news for Jim Webb.  Not Larry Sabato is reporting - and I can definitely confirm - the latest Mason-Dixon poll results as Allen 46%-Webb 42%.  Yes, that's George Allen with a 4-point lead, but this actually represents a HUGE gain for Webb from the last Mason-Dixon poll, which had it at 48%-32% Allen.  Quick math:  that's Webb up 10 points, Allen down 2 points, from the last Mason-Dixon poll in late July.

As Doug in Mount Vernon points out, "Mason-Dixon polls in VA are notorious for undersampling Democrats.....more confirmation that Allen's numbers are in the danger zone."

More good news if you're a Webb fan is that George Allen continues to poll several points under the magic 50% mark.  That's potentially disastrous for an incumbent with almost universal name recognition.  Where's the upside for George Allen?  On the flip side, Webb seems to be gaining in all polls as people get to know him better.  This trend is very likely to continue in coming weeks, with Webb TV ads and three scheduled Webb-Allen debates.  Good stuff.

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.

Comments



danger, danger.. (drmontoya - 9/8/2006 6:31:20 PM)
George Allen's no stranger.

Mr. Allen.. sir. your career in politics is over.

the voters in Virginia will speak, and you can go back to your rich home in Mount Vernon and work on K Street.

At least you have a JOB mr. allen. some people in your commonwealth don't even have that.

Have you no decency sir?

No, you don't.



Great news. Keep climbing!!! (RayH - 9/8/2006 6:47:04 PM)


Neck and neck (Kindler - 9/8/2006 11:05:07 PM)
I'm not sure if these numbers are reliable since NLS calls it a "speculation."  But if they are, and assuming the typical margin of error of 3-4%, this is basically a statistical tie. 


Assuming the margin of error is in your favor.... (thegools - 9/9/2006 1:26:23 AM)
...it is a dead heat.  The four percent could be a deficit, in which case Webb is a 8 points back. 

Webb (and we) have our work cut out.

(I have yet to see any Webb stickers on cars where I live.)



RE: Mason-Dixon (JPTERP - 9/8/2006 11:41:55 PM)
M-D appears to have a true category for "undecideds" which seems absent in other polls.  At this point I find it much easier to believe that 12% of the electorate has yet to signal a commitment to either candidate than the 5-8% seen in other polls. 

The tell-tale 46% for Allen is significant as well.  As is the 42% for Webb in the absence of any TV ads and still relatively low name ID.  There's still a ton of work to be done, but the opportunity is obviously there for Webb.