VA-2: Kellam up big in latest poll

By: Rob
Published On: 9/6/2006 2:02:02 PM

I don't know anything about this new polling outfit, but it's got Phil Kellam up big on Thelma Drake - 51% to 43%.

That's outside the margin of error - pretty impressive for a challenger in a very conservative district.

[UPDATE by Lowell: I received this from a reader ("VC").

The poll was conducted by Constituent Dynamics, which is a subsidiary of RT Strategies. RT Strategies is a bipartisan polling firm often used by Cook Political Reports. Here's what the Washington Post says about them:
"Cannot be dismissed as partisan...Thomas Riehle, a Democrat, and Lance Tarrance, a Veteran GOP pollster...make up the RT in RT Strategies".

Here's their website.

The point? The poll is legit, it's not a partisan poll. Drake is way down, and is proving to be a tremendously weak incumbent. The GOP should give up now.

I love it.]


Comments



Phil is going to win! (DanG - 9/6/2006 2:52:53 PM)
Phil's a Moderate Democrat, a classic Blue Dog in the mold of Owen Pickett.  That's why he's doing so well, and that's why he's going to win.


Wow! (David Campbell - 9/6/2006 3:00:54 PM)
That's great news.  I hope that this is reported in the Virginian-Pilot and encourages campaign contributions.  WE need to keep the momentum going.


Last night I caught some (Eric - 9/6/2006 3:31:32 PM)
commentary about the '94 sweep by Republicans that said a good number of the Democratic losses were by freshmen representatives.  I don't recall if that's the case but it does make sense.  And I'd think that holds true this year - first time Republicans are especially vulnerable in this season of discontent.  Cue Thelma and the poll. 


If you look at other polls by Constituent Dynamics.... (Dan - 9/6/2006 5:35:04 PM)
...you see that Kellam is performing perhaps as well as any Democratic challenger for which a poll was conducted.  This is a really good sign because it means that this race really is one of the top pick-up opportunities.  That being said, people with friends in the Southeast should alert them about this race.


I love how the GOP (DanG - 9/6/2006 7:30:02 PM)
I love how the GOP Bloggers are already doubting the credibility of the poll.

That's an interesting difference in the party bloggers.  Democrats see we're down in the polls and just try harder.  Republicans see that thery're down in the polls and refuse to acknowledge them.



The Dems are picking up the Second (DanG - 9/6/2006 9:02:59 PM)
Let's see if the GOP ditches Thelma and decides to spend more money preventing Feder from possibly taking out Wolf.


Shhhhhhhhhhh!!!!! (Loudoun County Dem - 9/6/2006 10:20:29 PM)
Don't give them the idea... Let Wolf keep stumping for repugs in PA....


incredible (Arlington Mike - 9/6/2006 10:38:59 PM)
Incredible that this poll shows Kellam over 50%.  That's a major accomplishment at this point, very encouraging.  Now it's up to him to maintain it!