...appeared on Sunday on the front page of the Metro section. By Michael Shear (who wrote most of the +óGé¼+ômacaca+óGé¼Gäó coverage). it was entitled 'Macaca Moment' Marks a Shift in Momentum and subtitled +óGé¼+ôAllen's Gaffe, Demographic Changes Give Webb a Boost+óGé¼-¥. I found a lot of very interesting material in this piece, which extended to another 2/3 of a page inside the Metro section.
I strongly urge anyone interested in this race to read the whole article. I will, for those who are more impatient, offer a sampling of the key points from the article. To whet your appetite and hopefully keep you reading, let me offer just the following, part of a larger statement by Steve Jarding, principal political consultant to the campaign:
Webb consultant Steve Jarding said Allen's "macaca" comment tripled the Democrat's fundraising.
"We have a real race," said Stuart Rothenberg, who edits the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks elections nationwide. "The race has changed fundamentally."This quote is symptomatic of how the conventional wisdom has changed on this race over the past few weeks. This is important because it has the potential to also shape how the MSM covers the race. The more the viewpoint expressed by Rothenberg is accepted, the more often Webb will appear in coverage as if he were the equal of Allen, a legitimate alternative. And that can only help Webb, as it raises his name recognition in a positive fashion.
Allen's "macaca moment" -- a term that has rapidly become part of America's political lexicon -- has breathed new life into Webb, a former Republican and Vietnam war hero who worked for Ronald Reagan.+óGé¼+ôpart of Americas political lexicon+óGé¼-¥ is the key - it is what has helped keep this story alive. Shear does not discuss the two aspects of that moment I think are important. First, it legitimized reexamining Allen+óGé¼Gäós not particularly noble record on race matters. And what I think was the most important part of the incident, it showed Allen as a bully, an aspect of his personality known to political writers around the state, but rarely expressed. On this point it might well be worth quoting a piece by Richmond Times Dispatch political reporter and columnist Jeff Shapiro in Sunday+óGé¼Gäós Commentary section (and kudos for Virginia blogger J. C. Wilmore in whose The Richmond Democrat I first encountered the story and from which I am quoting- go here to read more quotes)
By using the "m" word, Allen also bared for an audience in Virginia and beyond a mean streak a lot of us have seen before -- that lurks just beneath his make-believe Bubba facade.
There are aspect of the article that, in an attempt to offer balance, are in my opinion somewhat out of date on Webb. Let me offer two examples to illustrate.
First:
An author and screenwriter, Webb was an early critic of the Iraq war and is by some accounts the most credible candidate in the nation to give voice to the Democratic Party's anger at President Bush's foreign policy.and also:But it is far from clear that the first-time candidate has the time, money or personality to oust Allen from the Senate and help Democrats take over.
And while money appears to be coming in faster now -- candidates don't have to report their quarterly fundraising results until Oct. 15 -- Webb is struggling to put together in a matter of months the kind of statewide network of supporters and campaign volunteers that Allen began assembling decades ago.. Shear also describes Webb as +óGé¼+ôcold to the idea of personally raising money+óGé¼-¥ and as sometimes +óGé¼+ôicy on the stump.+óGé¼-¥ Let me note that the putting together of a volunteer organization is a struggling effort only in terms of figuring out how to use the thousands of volunteers who have appeared. The comment also ignores the phenomenon of a number of independent volunteer organizations, several of which have been organized by military veterans, that have been set up separately from the Webb campaign that are also organizing volunteer efforts. Also, Jim has gotten much better on the stump recently, and is much warmer in his remarks and interchanges with people, as anyone who watched the video (links for which can be found here) of Jim+óGé¼Gäós remarks on Saturday would know.
As to Jim+óGé¼Gäós reluctance on asking directly for money? I can speak to that directly. It was several weeks ago that he and I had a brief conversation on this subject and I pointed out to him that he was not violating the norms of his culture, because he was NOT asking for money for himself. We the people at the grass roots had urged him to get into the campaign on our behalf. He was asking for money so that he could do the job we asked him to do, so in a sense he was asking for money for us. It was if you could see a light go off in his head, and he commented that he had not heard it expressed that way before and that I was right. While I will NOT claim credit for changing his mind - he does very much thing for himself - my understanding is that in recent weeks he has been far more comfortable in asking for money.
Let me return to the piece by Shear, and offer just a few more key points. I will note that there are comments by Republicans that Shear must include, but which I think are telling in a way they did not intend. I will include some of that as well.
One key part of the article is the recognition that the state is changing, in some cases rapidly. The article notes
In the six years since Allen last campaigned, a half-million people have moved into the state, many of them immigrants and, some say, less conservative than voters of old.This is discussed by using what is now the nation+óGé¼Gäós richest (in terms of per family income) and one of its fastest growing counties, Loudoun:
Despite the national furor over Iraq, the fate of Allen's future in the Senate may be decided much closer to home, in rapidly growing Northern Virginia.Allen did well there in 2000, handily beating incumbent Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) in Loudoun County by 15 percentage points and winning 36 of the county's 38 precincts. His win was consistent with a recent GOP strategy that counted on big victories in the region's outer suburbs.
But Loudoun has grown and developed since then, adding 82,000 people and thousands of homes. In 2005, Democrat Timothy M. Kaine stunned the GOP by grabbing the county, winning Loudoun by 6 percentage points and capturing 45 of the county's 56 precincts in his gubernatorial bid.
"A lot of the suburban communities that had been for a long time so reliably Republican are really open to the right kind of message," Kaine said. "Some of the conventional wisdom about the electorate is beginning to change. I don't see those trends reversing. I see those accelerating."
Webb said he's counting on winning the votes of the "new faces, new blood in that region who are receptive to the values of the Democratic Party."
It is at this point that one gets a statement that I found somewhat out of touch, by the longterm Congressman in whose district Loudoun is:
Republican Rep. Frank R. Wolf, who has represented Loudoun for more than two decades, said he believes the county is no less conservative now than it has been for many years. Kaine's victory there was a fluke, he said.Besides the fact that most of these are NOT federal issues per se, this area is quite concerned with issues like the war and the functioning of the Federal government. Remember, the dominant newspaper in the area is the Washington Post, and even our local tv news covers the federal government because it is so much a part of everyday life. Further, I+óGé¼Gäóm not certain that Allen would want the race to be on issues like transportation, given his lack of support as governor for funding transportation and the state party+óGé¼Gäós previous (and recent) intransigence on the subject. The article also fails to note that Wolf has a serious challenger in Judy Feder who in the last cycle raised more money than he did."I know Northern Virginia better than Governor Kaine. I know Northern Virginia better than [former governor] Mark Warner," Wolf said recently. "I don't think there's been a change."
Wolf said voters in Northern Virginia want candidates who address their issues: the war in Iraq, transportation and education. "I don't advise anybody," he said. "But I think a candidate running in Northern Virginia ought to talk about . . . how you're going to deal with this transportation issue. People are concerned about safe schools."
Let me offer one more selection, which includes the teaser quote that appears above the fold. Allen has already advertised, and he does have far more money, so far. But read this, and note especially where I have added bold to the text:
Webb has yet to advertise, having raised far less money than Allen. But there are signs that his finances are improving: a new Web site, a bigger staff and more offices. Webb consultant Steve Jarding said Allen's "macaca" comment tripled the Democrat's fundraising."Webb is now being looked at by people all over the country," Jarding said.
"This is a referendum on George Allen," he added. "Do we want the rubber stamp? Is he the nice guy that he said he was?"
This may have been the real damage Allen did himself by his remarks. While people in Virginia have no trouble with hard-hitting political remarks, Allen+óGé¼Gäós remarks were jarring because he was NOT picking on his political opponent, which would have been seen as legitimate, but on a 20-year-old college student who was seemingly not in a position to fight back equally (although as subsequent coverage of the remarks demonstrates that might have been a real underestimation of Sidarth!).
Webb has demonstrated that he understands how to properly use the incident. If you watch the tape of his Saturday remarks, he notes how Allen+óGé¼Gäós use of the +óGé¼+ôm+óGé¼-¥ term seems to imply a low estimate of the generosity of the people from whom Webb descends -- his grandfather and great-grandfather were both born not far from where Allen made his remarks and Webb regularly goes to the area to visit relatives and to tend the graves of his great-grandparents. Jim related a conversation he had with Sidarth+óGé¼Gäós father after the incident occurred. That gentleman noted that when he first came to America in the 1970+óGé¼Gäós he lived nearby in Eastern Kentucky and did a large part of his business in Southwest Virginia. Never did he experience negative comments about his ethnic difference nor anything approaching discrimination. In fact, he describe SW Virginia as the kind of place that when his car broke down three people immediately stopped to see if they could help him.
If people try to evaluate this race by traditional standards of political judgment, they may very well miss a phenomenon that is going un very much under the radar. Jim Webb is not a left-Democrat who is calling for immediate withdrawal from Iraq. But he is someone who absolute credibility when he comments on the situation: he was one of the earliest and most articulate opponents of our embarking on this endeavor, and despite his opposition his son is a Marine Lance Corporal who departs for Iraq this week. Jim has huge credibility on this issue, and on related issues of how we treat our veterans. There is a growing surge in both the large veterans community and among active duty personal in support of Jim, a surge that would not happen for any other candidate. This as yet may not be reflected in the polling - active duty personnel may well be reluctant to respond on their opposition to a war in which they may have to serve. And while Jim is NOT an experienced candidate, I think the news article misses how well he listens to people and interacts with them. He is very much himself, genuine, and it is becoming increasingly clear that Allen is artificial. Webb sometimes comments on that indirectly, and it draws a huge response from the audience. Allen is also very much tied to the president, who is not particularly popular in Virginia at this point.
Enough. I felt this article offered enough that I wanted to draw it to the attention of more people. So I have. Enjoy your Labor Day.
I did not front page this because it is based on a story that appeared yesterday. I thought it should be brought to people's attention, and I have added quite a bit of additional analysis and commentary to the selections from the article.
Do with it what you will.
I am concerned about the upcoming debates, they present a completely different environment to Webb. In a debate where someone whose word that is never questioned because of its obvious honesty can be momentarily befuddled by political maneuvering, half-truths, and even lies, because Webb exudes respect for anyone he is in contact with. This gives an unfair advantage to an opponent with a "smart Alec" demeanor..... like Allen....
The best part was the headline on the front page of the tabloid-- WEBB RALLIES DEMS AS POLL SHOWS SLIGHT LEAD OVER ALLEN.
(It's the Zogby poll again, which is old news, but probably unfamiliar to lots of readers.)
I find his "libertarian, trusting, free-people approach", his "Common Sense Jeffersonian Conservative Principles" and his Reaganesque belief in libertarian ideals very attractive.
Libertarian? Let's look at a few items from the Libertarian Party's platform:
*" We oppose government actions that either compel or prohibit abortion, sterilization or any other form of birth control."
*"In order to defend freedom, we advocate a strict separation of church and State. We oppose government actions that either aid or attack any religion."
*"Consenting adults should be free to choose their own sexual practices and personal relationships. Government does not have legitimate authority to define or license personal relationships. Sexuality or gender should have no impact on the rights of individuals."
*"Repeal all laws establishing criminal or civil penalties for the use of drugs...Stop prosecuting accused non-violent drug offenders, and pardon those previously convicted."
So, Allen's new netroots coordinator was attracted to Allen because of Allen's "libertarian" philosophy, huh? Somehow, though, I doubt that George Allen believes in libertarian principles like no government involvement with regard to abortion, sexual behavior, drug use, or religion. Nor do I believe that Allen subscribes to "The principle of non-intervention should guide relationships between governments" or that "The United States government should return to the historic libertarian tradition of avoiding entangling alliances, abstaining totally from foreign quarrels and imperialist adventures."
Or how about this plank from the Libertarian Party platform: "Economic freedom demands the unrestricted movement of human as well as financial capital across national borders."
Hmmmm.
I happen personally to find the cerebral approach convincing, and I usually agree with everything Webb says. But I am also relieved to hear more fighting words and a greater passion coming out in his speeches. He's going to have to fight, fight, fight to be elected, because so far not enough people believe he is passionate about getting thejob--- even though they generally believe he'll be a "good" Senator.
Allen may say, in a superior fashion, that he finds the Senate "boring" but then he gives every evidence of passionately wanting to continue in his job, or at least folks think he does... that he cares wildly about winning.
It's up to us in the blogsphere to let everyone in on the secret that Allen wants to win, he just doesn't want to work at the job he's auditioning for: his leadership skills are nil, his vision is cloudy, and he doesn't have a mind or a will of his own, he's a 100 percent owned subsidiary of Bush and Co.