IRAQ WAR TRUTH: Andrew J. Bacevich, a professor at Boston University, and author of +óGé¼+ôThe New American Militarism,+óGé¼-¥ writing in The American Conservative for 23 September said bluntly +óGé¼+ôIn Iraq, the world+óGé¼Gäós only superpower finds itself mired in a conflict that it cannot win.+óGé¼-¥
The reason +óGé¼+ôvictory+óGé¼-¥ will forever elude us is that the Arabs and Muslim fighters have finally figured out how to respond to the Western way of warfare. All the brute firepower and high technology of our American military might cannot overcome the new Islamic Way of War, which uses what the West denigrates as +óGé¼+ôterrorism+óGé¼-¥ but is in fact a +óGé¼+ôpanoply of techniques designed to undercut the advantages of high-tech conventional warfare.+óGé¼-¥ The new warfare does use violence against civilians (i.e., +óGé¼+ôterror+óGé¼-¥), but also employs propaganda, subversion, agitation, economic warfare, sharp hit-and-run attacks+óGé¼GÇ¥ everything which avoids the West+óGé¼Gäós strengths and exploits our weaknesses.
The goal of this Islamic jihad has so far not been to invade and convert the United States, no matter what overheated rhetoric the Christian right employs. The goal has been to deny us victory (as we see it), and get us off their backs--- and it is folly to persist in believing that America and Israel can impose their will militarily on all the various Middle Eastern factions, tribes, and sects. We can continue to waste our treasure and the lives of our children on such a grandiose military crusade, or we can get real, and figure out a political (diplomatic) solution to whatever we decide is in our own best interests. This does assume we have a compelling interest other than converting them to evangelical Christianity... like, maybe, access to their oil? Economic cooperation for mutual profit instead of exploitation by globalization? An end to terror attacks on the West?
IRAQ WAR CONSEQUENCES: Not only has this ill-planned and ill-advised invasion diverted resources from the original objective of punishing Al Qaeda, it has undercut our initial victory in Afghanistan, which is returning to the control of warlords and the Taliban. This eventuality has also restored the opium trade, flooding our own streets with cocaine, and this entire situation will continue to worsen the longer we persist in seeking an imposed military +óGé¼+ôsolution.+óGé¼-¥ Meanwhile, we are now so bogged down in Iraq that we have failed to engage seriously the Iranians (Bush has refused to talk with them and has set unreasonable conditions, thus short-circuiting negotiations). They as well as North Korea are sneaking into the nuclear club on terms not beneficial to the West, thus beginning to level the playing field, and Bush has unwisely broken the Non-proliferation Treaty by providing special favors to India which will be demanded by Pakistan, thus increasing the probability of a nuclear strike in the world within the next ten years.
OTHER CONSEQUENCES: Beyond the unfavorable results the Iraq War has produced for the United States in our relations with Muslim petro-states and people, there are the looming twin threats of China and Russia, both of whom of course are also nuclear powers. The American (and the Israeli) war machines are no longer considered invincible, our weaknesses have been exposed, and it is clear we are over extended and have been seriously weakened by our pre-occupation with our foolish concentration on the mis-named +óGé¼+ôWar on Terror.+óGé¼-¥
China, for example, is quickly becoming the leading economic power in the world. It is also locking up access to the world+óGé¼Gäós resources and quietly signing agreements with a wide range of countries from Australia to Venezuela, south Asia to the successor states in Central Asia, Canada to Africa. Yes, even our supposedly close allies like Australia and Canada are dealing with China while we struggle on in Iraq. Not to mention that the Chinese are also buying up our own infrastructure right here in the United States, as well as a frightening amount of our federal debt+óGé¼GÇ¥ they will shortly own us, too, and, as Bill Clinton noted wryly, when asked why America didn+óGé¼Gäót tell the Chinese what to do about our huge trade deficit with them, +óGé¼+ôIt+óGé¼Gäós hard to tell your banker what to do.+óGé¼-¥ Pride goeth before fall, my northern Grandmother used to say.
Russia+óGé¼Gäós democracy is moribund, Putin will in due course be acknowledged as the new absolute ruler, whether he is called Tsar or something else. So much for Bush+óGé¼Gäós looking into his eyes and saying he saw Putin+óGé¼Gäós soul, and he +óGé¼+ôcan work with him.+óGé¼-¥ In reality, Putin and the Russian people in general, have been insulted by the West+óGé¼Gäós attitude toward them and what they see as the arrogant and threatening expansion of NATO into the heartland of the Slav: Poland, the Baltic States, maybe the Ukraine and even Georgia.. Based on their assessment of America+óGé¼Gäós weakness revealed in the Iraq War, Richard Mayberry in his +óGé¼+ôEarly Warning Report,+óGé¼-¥ believes that soon Russia will invade or, if you prefer, +óGé¼+ôre-absorb+óGé¼-¥ Georgia first in much the same way as Hitler achieved Anchluss with Austria and the Sudetanland. Next are likely to be the Baltic States.
In order to face these challenges, we must dis-engage ourselves from Iraq before we are further weakened. How else will we have the resources and ability to resolve the growing problems of the environment, the need for alternative fuels, our house of cards economy, our crumbling infrastructure, the growing economic disparity between the top one percent and the rest of us, immigration, the question of our loss of civil liberties and constitutional checks and balance, and so on. Something has got to give. While Bush+óGé¼Gäós decision may be to extend his military +óGé¼+ôsolution+óGé¼-¥ by bombing Iran and threatening Russia over NATO, I sincerely hope that is not what lies in our future, because the consequences of that answer are too horrible to contemplate, but will probably include nuclear war.
There is little doubt that, we a Democrat in the Whitehouse, bin Laden would be dead or in prison and we would not have lost a single life in Iraq. These are the facts, plain and simple.
While it is true that, at this time, and partly thanks to Bush's militaristic reactions, we are trying to engage those wily, violent religious fanatics, this is by no means the conflict of the 21st century. If we allow ourselves to be ensnared in Bush's Forever War, and our strength and treasure will be drained away, we will surely be subject to the questionable mercy of China and/or Russia by the time of the 22d century if not before.