Very good diary, I think you sum up the dynamics in each party fairly well. But I think there's an elephant (or rather a donkey) in the room that you're not addressing.

People also refer to the 'invisible' primary as the fundraising that takes places leading up to primary season. But I think there's a more important primary that's playing out in 2006; where each party is rolling out there big guns to go and stump for their candidates in competitive races. There is one Democrat who is by far the most requested for fundraisers, campaign appearances, etc. One Democrat we all known and love, but might not take seriously.

This is Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

Hold your tongue. He's too young. Not enough experience. Needs to wait around till 12 or 16.

Bullsh, err, Baloney.

1. We don't vote for our President based on their resume. If you compare the last 4 or 5 Presidential elections, the candidate with the LEAST impressive resume won. Kerry, Gore, Dole, Bush I (sorry Bill) all looked better on paper than their opponents. WE DON'T VOTE ON RESUMES, WE VOTE ON LEADERSHIP.

2. I greatly admire all the Democrats you've mentioned, especially Governor Warner. But do you look at any of them and really think that they offer a vision for America that is truly sweeping, that can drive you to tears of joy through their oratory, that can really inspire you? I know some here would argue that Clark of maybe Warner would do that, but I don't think they can compare to Obama. Go listen to his speech from the 2004 convention and tell me you don't wish he had been running instead of Kerry in 2004.

3. It will be much harder for Obama to beat an incumbent Republican in 2012 and impossible for him to beat a Democratic President in the primaries. Furthermore, the longer he waits to run, the more Senatorial and less human he becomes...

4. From a purely cynical perspective, Obama is the only candidate who can beat McCain. I know some of you will want to throw tomatoes at me for saying this, but I don't think any of those candidates can beat McCain. I call it the Daily Show/Delay theory. The Daily Show part is that McCain joke with Jon Stewart and crack jokes and have the audience like him even though he's expressing right-wing views. The general public adores him. He's just a genuinely charismatic guy. We can notice how he's pivoting to the right-wing and becoming less of a maverick than he was, but Joe Sixpack doesn't know.

The Delay factor is that the Republican Party has only one principle: staying in power. All the GOPers who don't trust McCain will flock to him when it becomes clear that he is the only Elephant who can win in 08 and he's near unbeatable in the general.

Feel free to dice these comments apart.

Problem, he has no interest in running for 2008.

None, he has a new book deal.. and has no national campaign organization yet.

If he's got everyone fooled, and is running he's got a lot of catching up to do.

I can see him running for President in the future, even near future.. Just not in 2008.

It's going to be a crowded field, I just don't see it.

I don't see how Obama is going to fit in the picture with the heavyweights above.

Your going to have them fight over Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, Warner, & Clark.

All of whom have national organizations and teams ready for an 08 bid.

All of whom have made many splashes in Iowa and New Hampshire thus far.

Obama will probably be our first black president.. just not in 2008.

I'm not sure he's not interested in running. And with his name recognition, he doesn't need a massive campaign organization. To quote Felix (yak) "the future is now."

Hilary can't win the General Election, but she's in the cat-bird's seat for the Democratic Primary. Why?

Primary: She's got the money and the name recognition. A significant % will like her just because she's a Clinton (just as others hate her for it). A lot of Dems ache to see a woman become President. People like me may opine that she has too little experience, is on the wrong side of the Iraq question, and has a leadership style that is too imperious, but that won't matter enough to Democratic primary voters to ruin her chances in a crowded field.

General: No matter what she does to try to change it, her presence on the rostrum will alienate the Clinton haters, and stir the right into a publicity frenzy. Hilary doesn't have the charisma of Bill, but she carries his name- and his baggage.

I love Mark Warner, and want him to make the nomination, but Edwards will have an edge in winning people who see each of them for the first time.

Kerry is old news; I don't think he has a chance.

Best bets, in my opinion: a Warner/Clark or Edwards/Clark ticket. I'd be willing to put Clark on the top, except that he hasn't governed like Warner.

On the Republican side, who really gives a damn? Allen has already begun to self-destruct, and I hope that he'll lose to Webb in the Senate race and retire permanently from public life. Maybe he'll move to California and set up a dude ranch.

McCain looks pretty good, but only because he's not in lock-step with the disaster we've had in office the last 6 years.Neither Giuliani nor McCain will appeal to the religious right, which will hurt them in the Primary, but not in the General. I think the religious right is going to fade further (but not disappear), and those on the right who get more shrill about losing conservative social issues will become increasingly isolated. A social conservative like Brownback won't win the General election, in my opinion.

It's way too soon to say how this will shake out, though. I have a feeling that the unseen hand of future events (hurricanes, war, economic cycling, etc) will change the slate dramatically before 2008.

All the big names are here and the conventional wisdom is followed. Can see that you have an obvious bias for Warner and Clark, which follows naturally from you living in VA and being in the military.

Warner has a tremendous amount of popularity here in VA, I'm looking forward to hearing his stump speach.

But more likely, this race will be defined by the unknowables, like the Swift Boats ads or a Macaca flap or even a few hundred votes in some state that is about the be under water as a result of global warming...these are the things that turn horse races from resumes into contests of leadership like you say.

Still can't wait to cast my vote for Obama, he's still a green politician, but he has the oratory skills of a Kennedy. Something our party and our country needs.