Last November, Democratic volunteers and Democratic voters across the Commonwealth of Virginia successfully defended ourselves from the hard right and brought an excellent successor to Mark Warner into the Governor+óGé¼Gäós Mansion in Richmond (Tim Kaine). Currently, only 22 Democrats grace the Governor+óGé¼Gäós Mansions across the United States. That could all change dramatically in November. While the Democrats are fighting a hard battle to take back the House, and an even tighter battle to take back the Senate, the prospect of taking back the majority of the Governor+óGé¼Gäós seats is not only possible, it is quite probable.
The main reason Democrats may fare so well in Governor+óGé¼Gäós races this year may not be the fact that Bush+óGé¼Gäós poll numbers are low. The main reason might be more likely due to the sheer number of races where incumbent Republicans are facing re-election and the number of open seats once held by Republicans.
Sure, Democrats face some challenges. There is one Democratic open seat in Iowa in jeopardy and 13 Democratic incumbents facing re-election. However, there are 8 Republican open seats this November, and 14 Republican incumbents facing re-election. Altogether there are a grand total of 36 Governor+óGé¼Gäós races this November, and each one will have an impact on how our country moves forward. Let+óGé¼Gäós go over the list and see just how many Democrats might be telling the Bush Administration to stick it once they get a hold of the Governor+óGé¼Gäós Mansion in 2007 if we can get them there.
Republicans almost certainly doomed
New York +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Spitzer has this thing in the bag for now
Massachusetts +óGé¼GÇ£ open race The winner of the Democratic Primary on September 19th should dictate the next Governor of Massachusetts
Ohio +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Sure, Blackwell may cheat on his OWN election, but can even his chicanery make up the 10-15 point lead of his opponent?
Highly vulnerable Republican Holdings
Arkansas +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Beebe still looks like he should take this race. Polls are still uncertain as to whether he will be in for a real fight
Colorado +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Ritter+óGé¼Gäós looking good for now. Will a victory for Ritter help the competitive House races throughout the State?
Maryland +óGé¼GÇ£ Ehrlich - Ehrlich looks more and more like a country club Republican everyday. Will he run a positive campaign or try to rip O+óGé¼GäóMalley apart by challenging his record in Baltimore. This race is far from over, but the Democrats still have the inside track
Rhode Island +óGé¼GÇ£ Carcieri +óGé¼GÇ£ East coast Republicans are facing the National backlash. Right now this race is dead even. However, Republicans are not likely to get any boost any time soon in New England
Vulnerable Republican Holdings
Florida +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Just how red is Florida? The polls don+óGé¼Gäót look that bad. The question is will the Democratic candidate still have money left after the early September primary?
Minnesota +óGé¼GÇ£ Pawlenty +óGé¼GÇ£ Pawlenty could be pulling away, but this race isn+óGé¼Gäót over yet. If the gap won+óGé¼Gäót close, maybe we+óGé¼Gäóll have to call in Jesse +óGé¼+ôthe body+óGé¼-¥ Ventura again
Nevada +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ Gibbons vs. Titus is NOT David versus Goliath. Nevada+óGé¼Gäós demographics have been changing dramatically. Gibbons wife got her ass handed to her in the Republican primary for the 2nd District. If the reddest district in Nevada won+óGé¼Gäót vote for one Gibbons, how will the treat the other?
Potentially vulnerable Republican Holdings
California +óGé¼GÇ£ Schwarzenegger +óGé¼GÇ£ It looks pretty darn good for the Terminator to win a second term. However, we must ask ourselves, where does Arnold really stand? Is he a big environmentalist? Will he have the vision needed for the world+óGé¼Gäós 5th largest economy? Is Maria the one keeping this guy from going too far to the right?
Alaska +óGé¼GÇ£ open race +óGé¼GÇ£ With Murkowski gone, and the brunette bombshell Sarah Palin now taking on Democrat Tony Knowles, polls have this race 51 for Palin and 38 for Knowles (pre-GOP Primary). We+óGé¼Gäóll see what polls show in the next few days
Highly vulnerable Democrat Holdings
Iowa +óGé¼GÇ£ open seat Culver has held the lead over Congressman Nussle, but he needs to stay strong as the fall approaches and the real campaign season begins
Michigan +óGé¼GÇ£ Granholm +óGé¼GÇ£ This is probably the most competitive Governor+óGé¼Gäós seat for a Democrat. Detroit voters can make the difference, as long as they escape the Republican slimeball election tactics down there
Vulnerable Democrat Holdings
Illinois +óGé¼GÇ£ Blagojevich +óGé¼GÇ£ It looks like even a low approval rating won+óGé¼Gäót knock off a this Democrat in a blue state. Voters seem to be asking themselves +óGé¼GÇ£ what is the alternative?
Maine +óGé¼GÇ£ Baldacci +óGé¼GÇ£ This race is still close, but the Northeast doesn+óGé¼Gäót have the drivers to become more conservative right now, does it?
Potentially Vulnerable Democrats Holdings
Pennsylvania +óGé¼GÇ£ Rendell +óGé¼GÇ£ Is Rendell loved in Philadelphia and hated everywhere else? He looks to be getting enough support right now to be able to beat a much weaker candidate
Oregon +óGé¼GÇ£ Kulongoski +óGé¼GÇ£ Will this race get closer, or will Kulongoski continue to pull ahead?
Wisconsin +óGé¼GÇ£ Doyle Doyle has opened up a solid lead for now. Let+óGé¼Gäós hope it will last to help the Congressional candidates.
It is very likely that the Democrats can get to 29 or 30 in Governor+óGé¼Gäós seats in November. This would be a big margin. It is unlikely that any Democrat will lose in this environment, although 1 loss would probably be the worst Democrats would face. The Republicans could lose 10 or 11. If victorious, Democratic Governor+óGé¼Gäós can continue to lead the way on environmental and energy issues to breed success in their respective states. Many Democrats now hold the Governor+óGé¼Gäós seat in Red States, so the local elections are really important in these states as well to get progressive policies passed.
SOURCES
Daily Kos
Democratic Governor+óGé¼Gäós Association
National Journal
Race Ratings
Rasmussen Reports
Politics1