Josh Marshall says "more data" is about to be released in the Va. Senate contest that will show that "we've got a real race on our hands here."Anyone know what he's talking about?
[UPDATE: Here are the latest results from SurveyUSA for WUSA-TV9.
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?
48% Allen (R)
45% Webb (D)
2% Parker (IG)
5% Undecided
According to WUSA, "Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points."
Wow.]
[UPDATE #2: Ben Tribbett has a fascinating analysis of undecided voters, in which he finds that of 8 indicators, "seven show a favorable environment for Webb among undecided voters." Great job, Ben.]
We gotta knock on more doors and spread the word about this being about civil rights.
Reminder, there are two other ballot questions as well!
That would show the GOP's Threat Level has been raised, wouldn't it?
And Gail, she's coming on like a freight train.
Sorry...
Seriously, it's good to see an impressive turn in the numbers. Perhaps it's still a bit early to take these polls too seriously, but with such a massive change I'd say it's clear that Webb has closed the gap nicely.
The M-word slur has very likely helped. Not only tearing down Allen (he's not the person people thought he was) but also getting Webb's name in the news. Webb's name recognition is critical and the big fuss last week certainly boosted the that recognition.
As for Wadhams, who knows. Maybe he'll turn it around if he stays or maybe more of the same (which would be great for Webb). Maybe a new guy would clean things up and kick ass or maybe not.
Either way, I suspect they're be dealing with a lump of clay that just can't be molded into something attractive. It's more up to the Webb campaign, and us, to keep pushing the right direction. If that continues I think we'll be seeing more of the same swing in poll numbers.
Go Jim.
Allen is NOT very Jeffersonian after all, and we knew this all along. :(
Jefferson liked facts
Allen likes costumes
Jefferson liked writing
Allen likes calling people names
Jefferson was a uniter
Allen is a divider
Jefferson was a statesman
Allen is a man with an adopted State called Virginia.
Oh, and golf is not for Republicans only!
Webb wins.
(Beware, Webb may fall back a little if this Macaca thing ever dies down.)
And I'll tell you, these are people who watch The Fox The News for the most part. Even if it is slanted against him, he needs to be on The Fox. Find some way to get him on The Fox and he'll jump over 50%.
OK, I realize it's within the margin of error . . .
Btw, do you think the Green candidate is drawing support from the left or the right? Parker didn't strike me as having particularly strong leftist appeal.
'In my life, and my military career, I've learnt that attacks, smears and cheap words don't get us anywhere. They don't save our jobs, or help our families. Here's my positive vision for Virginia....'
haha
PS: Does this incident, and the public mood, seem to be playing like the Kilgore Hilter ads? A turning point perhaps?
Felix didn't escape his recent comments in Cville's Daily Progress yesterday. Here's the link to the opinion column:
Also, my sister e-mailed an invitation to the Albemarle County Democratic Fundraiser and BBQ. It will be held at Claudius Crozet Park in Crozet on August 26th. Tickets are $15 in advance and $20 the day of the event. Children under 12 get in free. Guests will be David Toscano, Creigh Deeds, Al Weed and Jim Webb. For tickets and info, call 434-296-1868.
“My friends, we’re going to run this campaign on positive, constructive ideas, and it’s important that we motivate and inspire people for something,†Allen said, perhaps as a self-inoculation against the negativity he was about to utter to a crowd of 100 supporters
And then Allen immediately goes right to Sidarth with the slurs and insults. No transition, no rationale.
This is just the most bizarre feature of the whole episode. There is no consistency to Allen's remarks. It is an utter disconnect of intention. And so we really have three revealing views into George Allen:
1) George Allen believes his own bullshit; and can follow a call to "campaign on positive, constructive ideas" with a racial epithet against an audience member. A flip-flop in one sentence!
2) George Allen is a mean spirited, bully, with an easy lexicon of racial slurs. Including the French stuff!
3) George Allen is a Senator that finds it acceptable to use devisive terms like "welcome to America", "welcome to the real Virginia"...when addressing his constituents.
Virginia deserves better.
OK, maybe not... ;-)
Saying that Allen is "getting catty" or that his staff issued more "catty" remarks could be a way of mocking him and tieing him to his Felix middle name. Any other cat-related terms we can put on Allen? Maybe "getting his back up," like cats do? Or, when Allen goes negative and avoids talking about substantial issues, we can say he's a "fraidy cat," etc. "Fraidy cat" also helps remind people that Jim served in Vietnam and won medals while Felix was summering at the dude ranch.
This newbie posted this (his first dKos comment btw):
(Bolding is mine)
Needless killing and misery (2+ / 0-)While it certainly is encouraging to see Allen's numbers continue to shrink in the polls, one wonders what it will take for Allen's white knight challenger, James Webb, to actually start advocating withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. One also wonders how many troops have to return to this country brain damaged and receiving third degree burns over their bodies and missing and an arm and a leg, before this Democratic champion decides to allow the words withdrawal and timetable to pass from his lips? How many more Americans have to return to this country in flag draped coffins- 5,000? 10,000? 58,000?- before Webb, a Vietnam veteran no less, will actually concede that Iraq, like Vietnam, has become an unmitigated disaster, as well as a terminal quagmire, and that U.S. troops should finally be removed from that abattoir in Iraq? The best way to support those troops is to get them the hell out of that slaughterhouse as quickly as possible before any more Americans, as well as Iraqis, become needlessly killed, all dying and becoming grievously wounded for some ambiguous and irrational noble cause.
by Erroll on Mon Aug 21, 2006 at 03:03:48 PM PDT
I responded by quoting and linking to the speech that Jim gave last week (both the issues page and the speech text).
He responded with a lengthy diatribe which included this gem:
Webb also states, in the link, that "Most Americans want us to finish this mission and come home..." This sounds like something out of the neoconservative playbook.
He obviously had not read the link or really even the text I posted.
I took several deep breaths and wrote a response but if anyone else wants to give it a look to make sure I didn't miss anything or to offer an additional smackdown, have at.
I'm going to make another donation to Webb... GRRRRRRRRRR
You might also recommend that Erroll look at Tom Rick's book "Fiasco". There is no better assesment of the Iraq War in print right now. Rick's goes to great pains to explore how we got there, what are the likely outcomes now that we're in the middle of a civil war. He also looks at several courses of action going forward. If Erroll doesn't have time to read the book, then he's either a verteran of the war who knows first hand what's going on, or he simply isn't serious about the issue. Ricks's point of view is one that shouldn't be ignored.
Since these were his first two ever posts on dKos, I would have pegged him as a right wing troll if he hadn't also taken a gratuitous swipe at our troops:
If U.S. troops are sent over or under, above or beyond the horizon, this gesture will do little, if anything, to placate the Iraqis, since they realize, justifiably, that those less than benevolent troops belonging to the mighty United States can then be sent back into their country, at a moment's notice, to then wreak havoc and committ more daily atrocities against the Iraqi people.
He just really raised my hackles...
In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing.
30 of the 31 points is the direct result of the efforts by Susan Mariner! :~)
Huge news, and it will stir up all of the questions about "voters turning away from Allen, macaca comment could be his Waterloo," and so on. Need to get the commentators all fired up on this one again, get out the positive messages from Webb, etc.
This was an awful incident, the type of thing that is just unfortunate. If it helps remove a guy of questionable character who has done precious little for Virginia and Virginians, there is a true silver lining.
Lamont and Loserman tied.