Sliding into Recession?

By: Lowell
Published On: 8/7/2006 7:59:41 AM

According to Paul Krugman - the New York Times columnist and Princeton economist who spent a year working at the Reagan White House on the Council of Economic Advisors - the economy may very well be sliding into recession.  In fact, Krugman writes this morning, "the forces that caused a recession five years ago never went away."  Now, they may be back with a vengeance.  What are these factors?

1) "Business spending hasn+óGé¼Gäót really recovered from the slump it went into after the technology bubble burst."

2) "...the trade deficit has doubled since 2000, diverting a lot of demand away from goods produced in the United States."

3) "...problems in the housing market are starting to seriously reduce economic growth: the latest G.D.P. data show real residential investment falling at an accelerating pace."

4) "Gas at $3 a gallon doesn+óGé¼Gäót help, either." (note:  oil prices spiked above $77 per barrel this morning on news that BP had shut down Prudhoe Bay oil production in Alaska "indefinitely.")

5) "...real wages of most workers fell during the 'Bush boom' of the last three years."

All of this is very bad news, but it gets worse.  Unemployment is starting to rise again.  The potential for an even greater spike in oil prices is great, given threats by Iran to EXPAND its nuclear enrichment activities and to unleash the oil weapon if the U.N. Security Council imposes sanctions on that country.  Not to mention the Prudhoe Bay situation and the sudden, sharp decline in production at Mexico's key field, Cantarell. Not good.

Meanwhile, the ability of the U.S. government to deal with these problems by use of the standards tools - fiscal and monetary policy - are severely constrained due to "the budget still deep in deficit and the costs of the Iraq war still spiraling upward." 

And why is the budget in deficit?  Thank you, President Bush and the Republican Congress (including one Senator George Allen), for blowing Bill Clinton's huge budget surpluses on tax giveaways to the richest of the rich and the biggest of the big. Oh, and thanks for squandering hundreds of billions of dollars on your not-so-excellent adventure ("strategic blunder," as Jim Webb calls it) in Iraq.  Heckuva job, guys.

So there we have it: six years of Republican (mis)rule have brought us the OPPOSITE of "peace and prosperity."  Instead, we have war and (looming) recession.  Is it time for a change OR WHAT?  No need to answer that one...

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.


Comments



Stagflation? (Bubby - 8/7/2006 9:14:33 AM)
Unless you are older than about 40, or a economics major you probably have never heard that word.  It was the term used to describe the economy of the late 70's early 80's when despite a slowing economy, and growing unemployment, the price of commodities continued to increase.

That is what the reports coming from the Federal Reserve are indicating.  Growth is slowing, but prices are increasing.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 4.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the first.

Meanwhile, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2006, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 5.6 percent. That is slowing growth in the US economy.

Stagflation sucks.  Your purchasing power decreases as your wages or income remain stagnant (or decrease), while the cost of goods increase. (fuel, food, credit rate).  And if your assets are real-estate, nobody can afford to buy your property because of high interests rates (+10%) and high prices (who wants to sell at a loss).

Major causes: unfunded government spending (tax reductions during a war - war is always inflationary), and high cost of energy (Oil).  Add in poor economic growth (wages,job creation) - the hallmark of Bush43, and we are headed to stagflation hell.

I may just be a dumb country boy, but this looks like the legacy of George Bush and his Republican big spenders - years of economic problems.  Throw in another war (Iran? Syria? and it will be a slam-dunk).  Heckuva job George. 



Stagflation- boy, that takes me back (RayH - 8/7/2006 12:41:36 PM)
I'm afraid the Georges- Bush and Allen- don't recall what it was like for ordinary people during those days. Neither one of them every really needed anything.

I remember life as a fresh college graduate with a young family and no decent job prospects. There weren't any "compassionate conservatives" around, as far as I could tell.

Is it classist for me to say that I wish some of the senior leadership had experienced poverty first hand? Maybe if they endured it, they would be a little more careful to avoid re-creating it.



RE: Oil and Iraq (JPTERP - 8/7/2006 8:51:35 PM)
Good news, but mostly bad news. 

I suspect if oil prices came down steeply inflation would go with it.  Rising oil prices impact every industry--in some cases indirectly, but it still cuts across the economy. 

Unfortunately, there are zero indications that prices are coming down any time soon.

Of course, we're all aware of the impact of the Iraq invasion on oil prices (not the sole contributor to increases, but certainly a substantial factor in the increases in the futures markets).  When people talk about "Iraq" being just "one" issue--they're really missing the big picture.  Not exactly a minor misjudgement in a matter of little consequence. 



Don't blame it all on Repubs... (Info_Tech_Guy - 8/9/2006 12:07:16 PM)
Bill Clinton and many other elected Democrats helped push through NAFTA. Many Democrats have supported the corporatist agenda of offshore outsourcing and importation of low wage foreign replacement workers. Many elected Democrats routinely vote for the FTAs and expansion of the so-called "non-immigrant visa" programs used to replace American IT workers.

The immense trade imbalances the U.S. now faces are not merely the result of Republicans and Republican appointees...  The declining availability of good middle class jobs for Americans is not just the result of Republican policies.

Let us also acknowledge the true extent of corporate influence among elected Democrat officeholders...



Roberts was there first... (Info_Tech_Guy - 8/7/2006 7:06:30 PM)
See Counterpunch.com

"Special Issue: the Collapse of America

Paul Craig Roberts gives CounterPunchers the definitive data on what is happening to jobs in America. Not just blue collar jobs. Middle-class, white collar jobs. Roberts' stunning probe is the first true picture of what the U.S. economy is fast becoming and of the savage class wars that lie ahead."



Deflation vs. Stagflation (Teddy - 8/7/2006 8:16:42 PM)
Japan suffered from deflation for over a decade, nothing stimulated their economy despite having zero interest rates (which did, however, stimulate the "carry trade" to the benefit of American speculators). Japan just began pulling out of that long-term misery. Greenspan feared America would slip into the same deflationary spiral as Japan, but managed, he thought, to avoid it by a hair's breadth.

Thanks to Greenspan's relentlessly creating dollars out of thin air and pumping them out to stimulate America's economy with the intention of aborting the prophylactic slowdown in 2001, we developed a huge credit bubble and asset inflation (in housing and stocks, too). Nothing, however, can now save us from the upcoming painful adjustment because the usual "tools" of stimulating have been over-used and no longer have the same effectiveness. Not even the stimulus of yet another war will save us. We are, indeed, most likely to suffer stagflation rather than deflation (or even hyperinflation).

"When in worry, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout." That will probably be the republican reaction.  Oh, and Blame Clinton.