RK ARCHIVE - HOUSE RACE UPDATE: 55 seats Democrats can turn blue in 2006

In total, these 55 vulnerable seats for Republicans encompass 24 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent. With Bush's approval ratings hovering between 10-15 points lower than they were in 2004, any Republican who was vulnerable in 2004, is far more vulnerable in 2006. The Democrats still face some trouble, but little more than 10 seats are likely vulnerable (about half of which with any serious danger of losing the seat). Overall, the number of Democratic seats that are vulnerable is less than 1/5th the number of vulnerable seats as the Republicans, and overall the Democrats will face less blame for their problems than their Republican opponents.

Based on my research, I found the Democrats could pick up 13 seats based on current voting trends (disregarding a major voter backlash). I found the Democrats could pick up 29 seats if voters show some backlash against the Republicans (based on the polls that show a majority of Americans wanting to return the Congress to the Democrats, and the possibility of decent voter turnout). For all 55 seats to go (as well as any other races not on the list below) the backlash would have to be tremendous, voter turnout would have to be large for Democrats while Republicans would have to stay home. The Democrats would need a strong platform that rivals 1994's "Contract with America".

Beyond the flip is a list of key races in 2006.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat"

Highly vulnerable races (13)
Colorado (07x)
Connecticut (02)
Florida (22)
Indiana (08, 09)
Iowa (01)
Kentucky (04)
New Mexico (01)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (06, 07)
Texas (22)
Virginia (02)

Vulnerable races (16)
Arizona (05, 08x)
California (11)
Colorado (04)
Connecticut (04, 05)
Illinois (06x)
Indiana (02)
Minnesota (06x)
New York (20, 24x)
North Carolina (11)
Ohio (15)
Pennsylvania (08)
Washington (08)
Wisconsin (08x)

Potential seats (26)
California (04, 50)
Colorado (06)
Florida (08, 09x, 13x, 16)
Illinois (10)
Kentucky (03)
Minnesota (01)
Nebraska (01)
Nevada (02x, 03)
New Jersey (07)
New York (19, 25, 26, 29)
North Carolina (08)
Ohio (01, 04x)
Pennsylvania (10)
Texas (06, 23)
West Virginia (02)
Wyoming (at-large)

10 races on the fringe needing money and press coverage to become competitive (MI-08, MI-09, MT-at large, NH-01, NH-02, PA-04, PA-18, TX-21, VA-10, VA-11)

**This article will change over time. As I have updated lists, I find that some candidates haven+óGé¼Gäót gotten the fundraising going to really be competitive as of yet. That is why this list only has 55 races, as opposed to the 60 that I listed last time. These races should be on the Democratic radar. While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. As the campaign season moves ahead, some races will become closer and some will become more distant. I will make further updates in a few weeks.

Comments

Oh Dan... (James Martin - 8/5/2006 1:07:06 PM)

My My... I can almost promise you that none of "fringe" races will make it into the competitive, the Democrats have decided which races to try to win and none of those are on it.

As for the Potential Seats... With the exception of Linda Stender in New Jersey and Steve Chabot in Ohio (both races will be highly competitive, i think leaning GOP, but real movement is going on), i donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t think youÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ll be seeing many district change there...

I'm an optimist, but lets not tell people that we could capture 30+ seats; 1994 was different, not just in terms of a title wave (it was a complex year and Dems dont have the changing Demographic advantages that the GOP had in 94.

Proof Reading... (James Martin - 8/5/2006 1:10:42 PM)

My My... I can almost promise you that none of your "fringe" races will make it into the competitive list, the Democrats have decided which races to try to win and none of those are on that list.

Oh James (Dan - 8/5/2006 1:12:33 PM)

I read you, but you talk like an absolute expert with 30 years experience! C'mon man, all it takes is getting some freaking voters off the couch and into the polls! How about recommending this on Daily Kos? Show some love!

:) (James Martin - 8/5/2006 1:38:24 PM)

As a casual observer of Congressional Races, I was just pointing out that many of the races youÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve referred to probably wont be competitive.

And ill recommend on Kos.

Of the 26 races (Dan - 8/5/2006 1:54:28 PM)

Of the 26 races that are "potential" about 3/4 of them are listed as potential races on the National Journal site. They are still considered competitive, with the challenger within a few points.

VA 11th is coming on strong (bladerunner - 8/6/2006 9:48:40 AM)

I expect Andy Hurst's campaign to move on up the later, because it's going to get more press coverage. Andy's got too much on the ball to sit around and hope voters turn out. With FFX leaning democratic now and Tom Davis true nature of hording money and influence peddeling has been exposed by a publication "The Washington Post" which endorsed him in the past--the tide is turning significantly in Andy Hurst's favor. Of course he does need $$$$ so contribute if you can--they are very appreciative of anything you give! www.hurstforcongress.com.