Lamont Pulls Away; Connecticut Primary on Tuesday

By: Lowell
Published On: 8/3/2006 7:50:44 AM

I continue to follow the Lamont-Lieberman primary race in Connecticut for several reasons:

1) I grew up in Connecticut and still have family and friends there.

2) I find the battle between Lamont and Lieberman to be a fascinating contest between the "netroots" and the party establishment, between those who believe Democrats should stand strong for what they believe, and othes who think that compromise with the George W. Bushes of the world is the way to go.

3) I think it's a compelling, dramatic campaign with fascinating human interest story lines.

4) I believe that the outcome of Lamont-Lieberman will have impliations for Democrats across the country.  If, for instance, Lamont wins next Tuesday but Lieberman runs as an Independent (as he's promised to do), will Democrats' energy and money continue to focus on Connecticut through the election?  And if that happens, will it distract from efforts to defeat Republicans like George Allen and take back the U.S. Senate?  I wonder.

Anyway, the latest poll results are looking very good for Ned Lamont.  According to a new Qunnipiac University poll, Ned Lamont is pulling away from Joe Lieberman, now leading by 13 points, 54%-41%, with just a few days to go.  Even more ominously for Lieberman, only 5% of Connecticut Democrats say that they remain undecided.  If that's true, it looks like Lamont's going to win the Democratic primary on Tuesday, and that there's not much Lieberman can do about it (he already had Bill "Big Dog" Clinton appear with him the other day; apparently to no avail).

So, will yet ANOTHER candidacy that started in obscurity a few months ago on those pesky blogs come to fruition this coming Tuesday?  Just like the draft of James Webb back in December 2005 and January 2006 that came to fruition on June 13?  Or will the forces of order and sanity - the Democratic Party establishment - prevail, stopping the barbarians before they "Crash the Gate?"  Just kidding, but I DO think this is a fascinating story line.  How about you?

P.S.  Speaking of blogs, check this out, as a Firedoglake blogger makes the Washington Post over her Lieberman-in-black-face cartoon.

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.


Comments



After Tuesday (David Campbell - 8/3/2006 8:02:50 AM)
Lamont will win because Lieberman is out of touch with his constituents.  Lieberman would be a fool to run as an independent.  Republicans who supported him in the primary will desert him in the general election.  Democrats will unite to elect Lamont in November.

After Tuesday, we need to concentrate our efforts on electing Jim Webb and Phil Kellam.



Agreed (Arlington Mike - 8/3/2006 8:24:45 AM)
After this nasty awful primary is over, Democrats need to return to their real focus - removing Republicans from power.  I realize that this race has captured the attention of many Dems who see it as the battle between the left vs. moderate wings of the party.  But all the energy devoted to it is taking away from the task of reclaiming the House and Senate, putting Democrats back in charge of committee chairmanships and giving Dems the authority to start actually overseeing, and checking, the power of the president.

I can't wait till CT is finished, there is more important work to be done.



Well spoke..... (Ambivalent Mumblings - 8/3/2006 5:00:30 PM)
.... as G & S would say. We already need to pick up at least 6 seats and I honestly worry that too much energy will be focused on the race in Connecticut. In the primaries it is perfectly alright to have a debate over which candidate is the best one to represent the Party. In fact, that's what primaries are for. When it comes to the general election, however, we need to focus on defeating the Republicans.


Sigh (DukieDem - 8/3/2006 9:01:00 AM)
I don't see how Lamont wins the General. Repubs and Indies will rally to Lieberman, and even among Dems he'll hold 40-45% of the total. And even if Lamont does win, how much money will we have wasted just to HOLD a seat? If national Dems put money into Connecticut we are wasting money, if we don't then the dailykos crowd will whine about the 'party establishment'. Furthermore, it will garner massive media attention away from more important races, such as the one here in Virginia. It will give Republicans a national talking point that the Democratic Party imposes 'litmus tests across the board' and could scare away the moderates and independents we need to take back the House and Senate.

Furthermore, why in God's name are we targeting moderate Dems and not moderate Republicans in blue states? What if we put this money and outrage into getting rid of Lincoln Chaffee and Olympia Snowe? How much more do they vote with the President? Iraq is a huge issue, but its not the only issue.

I just don't see how this ends well. I'd beg those in the Nutmeg state to vote Lieberman and focus on the 3 Republican seats in Connecticut we can pick up. I know many here have strong feelings on this race and I'm probably not changing any minds, but this is stupid politics in my mind.



Lieberman's support shrinks when Lamont wins (teacherken - 8/3/2006 11:09:25 AM)
most of the names which have endorsed him in the primary make it clear they will support the winner of the nomination.  How much support do you think Lieberman will still have among Dems and independents who are moderate to liberal when Hillary, Big Dog, Biden, and almost all the other names who endorse Joe in the primary endorse Ned for the general?

And Lieberman would not get all of the Republicans -- some will still vote for the very weak candidate that they cannot seem to replace. The Repub nominee would draw at least 15% of vote, possibly more.

So Ned could win a general with well under 50%.  were he to win 45 and the Repub were to win 15 Joe would be limited to 40.

In my opinion, unless he wins the primary, Lieberman is toast.  And if he loses the primary by 10% or more, it becomes very hard for him to keep running -  unless he is funded almost solely by republicans - because a loarge chunk of his Dem money would then dry up.  They may be willing to go to the mat for him in the primary, but not in the general.



The only way.... (Ambivalent Mumblings - 8/3/2006 5:02:03 PM)
....that Lamont could win is if enough Dems become upset that Lieberman actually ran as an Independent. I highly doubt that will happen though.


This is getting good (Rebecca - 8/3/2006 9:39:16 AM)
Its getting to the point where they won't be able to convincingly rig this one. This is great!


Joe Go (seveneasypeaces - 8/3/2006 10:41:00 AM)
Steven Colbert has asked Lieberman to come on his show and he has refused.  So Steven has set out an arm chair waiting for him.  Empty. 

All I can say to Joe is,  NEXT!!!!  No more sending women to other hospitals, no more voting against the interests of the American people.  No more non-contriteness. No more kissing bush's ?.  Joe Go.



False. Joe Lieberman is the one hurting the party not Lamont. (JennyE - 8/3/2006 9:44:26 AM)
And even if Lamont does win, how much money will we have wasted just to HOLD a seat?

Lieberman is the one who refuses to respect Democrats in this primary. Democrats have supported him for 18 years and he decides to bolt the party if he loses on Aug 8? Why is Joe Lieberman even going through the motions if he won't respect the outcome of the primary? Talk about a complete loser.

The blogs have been right all along. For Joe Lieberman, it has always been about Joe Lieberman.



this is in response to DukieDem (JennyE - 8/3/2006 9:45:18 AM)


Lamont (DukieDem - 8/3/2006 9:57:12 AM)
Sounds like the one with an ego problem. Check out this quote from the WaPo link:

Lamont brushed past reporters Wednesday night in Bridgeport, saying: "I don't know anything about the blogs. I'm not responsible for those. I have no comment on them."

Really Ned? No comment on the sole reason your race has received national attention? No comment on the bloggers appearing in your campaign commercials?

I wish that Lieberman would respect the will of the primary voters, but the primary is being too heavily influenced by out of state factors. Ned Lamont is running against W, not Lieberman.

Furthermore, even if Lieberman dropped out after the primary, money would have to be spent introducing Lamont to voters in Connecticut. He would win, but we'd be wasting national resources. We don't have enough money to be wasting it on sure things.

I'm still waiting to hear why we don't target Olympia Snowe or Lincoln Chaffee, or if we want to target a Dem, Ben Nelson.



Lieberman has been in the senate for 18 years (JennyE - 8/3/2006 10:26:40 AM)
If he can't defend his record, he deserves to lose.

And about primaries, they happen all the time. In Rhode Island, Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is also being primaried from the Right. Have you heard the national media crowing about how "unjust" the RI Republican primary is?

Primaries are democratic. A senate seat is not a birthright.

Sen. Ben Nelson doesn't thumb his nose at his own party nor does he undercut the party's message. Lieberman does that gleefully and its no suprise Democrats are fed up with his self-serving ways.

FYI, Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee both have Democratic challengers. In fact, Chafee is now trailing his Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse in the latest Rasmussen poll.



Please (DukieDem - 8/3/2006 11:02:16 AM)
Ben Nelson doesn't undercut the party's message? He's voted with Bush more than any other Democrat. He has a 7% rating from NARAL, 21% from the LCV, 83% from the Christian Coalition, and voted against giving guest workers a path to citizenship. How are those democratic values? Now you'd argue that we need to hold his seat, but if we're going to apply litmus tests, then let's kick Nelson out and put money into Arizona, Tennessee, and Virginia. Pederson, Ford, and Webb would all make much better Democrats than Nelson and could win if given enough financial support.

As far as Chaffee and Snowe having challenger, yes we're fielding them, but we're not making them an issue of national attention. We seem content to let them vote with us 40% of the time when they're most important vote is making Bill Frist the leader of the Senate. Without a majority, nothing else really matters.



It doesn't look like you have been following the senate races that closely (JennyE - 8/3/2006 5:32:38 PM)
Because if you had, you would've known that Chafee is facing a very tough challenger in Whitehouse, and looks very vulnerable in Nov.

And as for Sen. Ben Nelson, it is actually a miracle that he holds a Democratic seat in deep red Nebraska. Nelson doesn't go on FoxNews to lambast Democrats unlike Joe Lieberman who proudly wears his faux moderate credentials at every turn.

Connecticut is a fairly blue state. Joe Lieberman is not representing Nebraska - he is representing Connecticut Democratic voters who are now fed up with him. Is it any wonder Lieberman has been nicknamed Bush's Favorite Democrat? In a blue state, that label is political suicide. Let the Democratic voters in Connecticut decide Lieberman's fate on Tues. 



Out of state factors (Maura in VA - 8/3/2006 1:08:43 PM)
First of all, Ned was answering a question about the offensive image posted on Huffington Post that he hadn't seen.  He was not talking about blogs in general - that quote was in response to something that had gone up on a blog that morning that he hadn't seen and knew nothing about.  And it's absolutely true that he is not responsible for what goes up on independent blogs. 

Once the campaign knew what reporters were asking about, the campaign manager condemned the image as offensive.  I don't know what more you would expect a campaign to do about an independent blog.

I'm sure there were times when Tim Kaine didn't like things that were posted on blogs by his supporters, but I don't know what his campaign could reasonably have been expected to do other than say he doesn't control that content and personally found it objectionable, which is what Ned's campaign did.

As for out of state factors, over 80% of Joe Lieberman's money has been raised from out of state.  And that doesn't even include the HUGE corporate checks he's gotten in the last few weeks.  One report said that of 124 maximum contributions he got in a 3-day period ($2,100 each) only 4 were from Connecticut.

And if you're still waiting to hear why we won't target Ben Nelson, you clearly haven't read much on this race.  There's a big difference between Lieberman and Nelson, the main one being that Nelson doesn't spend most of his free time going on right-wing talk shows to bash the Democratic Party (other than him) as being weak on national security and unpatriotic.



Woops.. (Maura in VA - 8/3/2006 1:09:12 PM)
...I forgot to close my bold tag.  Sorry!


Nelson sucks (DukieDem - 8/3/2006 1:22:10 PM)
So Nelson passes the Dem test because he doesn't go on Hannity and Colmes? Sure, I'd rather have a Democrat who votes to confirm Alito and Roberts, votes against stem-cell research, votes against a women's right to choose, supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent, votes against a comprehensive bill to reduce greenhouse gases (sponsored by Lieberman btw), and votes for constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage and flag burning. BUT THANK GOD he didn't go on TV and question Democrats, because that would have been too much.

Also, Lieberman getting corporate checks is bad, but Lamont spending his personal fortune of corporate money is good?

Repubs could have just as easily put up a primary in 04 against McCain for the criticisms on Bush's spending, immigration policies, environmental record, etc. But for all their faults, the GOP has learned how to count. We haven't. Lamont winning gains not one seat, only changes a handful of votes, and costs a lot of money and energy.



Joe & Ben = apples & oranges (LT - 8/3/2006 3:47:47 PM)
In case you do not know, Ben Nelson is the sole Democrat in the Nebraska delegation (though that might change come November). Plus, it's better to have someone who votes our way 40% of the time than 0%, which is what would happen if Nelson lost. He also is a vote for Harry Reid as majority leader, which would prevent amendments to ban gay marriage and flag burning from even coming to the floor. If one is going to primary a conservative Dem like Nelson, it helps if there is someone who can not only beat him but win the general in a deep red state like NE.

Leiberman, though, comes from a solidly blue state and has no excuse for his unrepentent support of a disastrous war or voting to favor the credit card company-supported bankruptcy "reform" bill. His arrogance has made matters worse, as has his preening self-righteousness. He brought this primary on himself, and if he loses, he has only himself to blame.



Beg to Differ (DukieDem - 8/3/2006 4:18:50 PM)
Bob Kerrey represented Nebraska and was far more liberal than Nelson. All it takes is a leader with guts and charisma, sorely lacking in Nelson.