this was on the front page just a minute ago. Not that I like the story.

What gives?

Don't know why, but the site grabbed the diary and threw it on the front page.  I brought it back down.

the outcome last time was 63-36, or a difference of 27 points. If there is anything positive to say about this poll, it is that it is 24 points, Bush's numbers are not going up, and Virgil is down to under 60%.

The majority of this race has yet to unfold, of course. If Virgil debates (and actually shows up) then people will see the real differences between these two candidates.

If this was September and those numbers came out, I would be seriously worried. As it is, we have a lot of work to do.

and "a lot of work to do" is right.

Look at the crosstabs. Did it strike anyone else as odd that of the 838 registered voters they surveyed, they cherrypicked 417 as likely voters, and 14 weeks out all but 6% have made up their minds? Not a chance. I'd call this a poll of "guaranteed voters."

In their sample, 45% were Republicans and 29% were Democrats, but according to the 2004 NCEC data, (I haven't scoured the 2005 data yet, but I guarantee it's even more favorable) the district is 40% republican and 39% democrat. Of course republicans are more "likely" than democrats, so they'll pick up a few points (5-8?) but a 16 point spread? no way -- especially not with their base as depressed as it is.

What this poll tells me is that we will get smoked if we don't turn out a lot of Democrats who SUSA thinks are "unlikely."

Virgil Goode is smoking Weed...

he must have been to take all that MZM money.

They are giving next to no coverage of the MZM scandal.

Martinsville gave a $600,000 discount to MZM for their building, a $500,000 loan guarantee to MZM, elected admitted MZM felon Richard Berglund to run the Chamber of Commerce and ended up with 30 odd jobs with the newly renamed MZM - Athena Innovative Solutions.  They simply don't want to think about how they got taken.  I do.

This thing is a massive illegal outsourcing of national intelligence to private investors cozied up to the Pentagon - all at taxpayer expense.  MZM/Athena takes the taxpayers money, gives the locals a few jobs for cover and ships the loot back to a New York investor group. What kind of Republican community development is that? It would be better (and cheaper) to simply cut a check for Martinsville and be done with it.

The locals should be indignant, but I'm not holding my breath.

I am thinking about making a print newsletter about the MZM activities and passing it out. 

help, let me know. That would be a great thing to pass out every Saturday morning on our canvassing.Come to think of it, it would be a great thing for EVERY county to pass out.

There are online resources, for example,
http://martinsvilled...

But now even with the announcement of the likely closing, all the News Advance has is an op ed on Oddo, Gail Parker and rails.

If the local print and tv media don't pick up soon, it's all but necessary to make a newsletter. I would want to center it on an article from a major paper such as this one:
this article

And if I end up investing in a reprint fee, I'd certainly be highly motivated to distribute widely.

Talk to the Roanoke Times writer (Hammack) and ask if you can submit a guest editorial.  They have been all over this.  The same would be the case with the other papers. 

The closer they are to Martinsville, the less inclined they are to write a critical editorial.  But they may accept an extended LTE/in-depth commentary. This has moved beyond campaign politics to municipal fiscal shenanigans.  Goode just happens to be at the center of it.  There are others that have made some poor judgements.