Source: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006041201
Sabato's Crystal Ball - What Were They Thinking?
VIRGINIA SENATE: If U.S. Senator George F. Allen (R) is as serious about running for the White House as he seems to be--and that's been his obvious ambition for years--then why didn't he forgo reelection and step down from the Senate at the end of this term?
The Senate is a terrible place from which to run for President, and the dozens of senators who have lost the Presidency in modern times can attest to that fact. (Only two U.S. Senators, Warren Harding in 1920 and John Kennedy in 1960, have been elected directly to the Presidency in American history.) Instead, Allen's running two contradictory campaigns at once. He's dashing around the country, showing up constantly in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and elsewhere, taking very conservative stands for the GOP activists that don't always sit well with the voters in a moderating Virginia. Allen is also making statements that will come back to haunt him this year. In Iowa, the California native says he wishes he'd been born in the Hawkeye State instead; Virginians were under the mistaken illusion that the Old Dominion, where he's been entrusted with the Governorship and a Senate seat, was his second-favorite state. To the New York Times, Allen all but yawned when describing his job, leading to the now-infamous "Allen-is-bored-in-the-Senate" lede to the Times' article on March 26, 2006. Expect to see that one in a TV spot come fall.
At the very same time, Allen is asking Virginians for another six-year term in the Senate--except that he's really asking for a two-year term. He's hoping to resign the seat in 2008 to become the next Republican President or Vice President. Not incidentally, Democratic Governor Tim Kaine would then get to appoint a Democrat to Allen's seat.
Wonder how Republicans will view that prospect, especially if the Senate is closely divided by 2008? As for 2006, the combination of a Democratic trend in Virginia, the potential for an energetic opponent (whether Harris Miller or Jim Webb is chosen in the June Democratic primary), and the inherent contradictions in Allen's quest for another Senate term nearly guarantee a basket of problems for the Republican. While Allen is still favored to win a second term, the size of the victory might be smaller than once expected. Allen will also have to spend more money than he had planned, reducing the transfer of funds to his presidential committee, and his opponent is bound to leave him somewhat battered and bruised. In politics, you can lose while winning.