I hardly think those two are the most competitive races this year, but 10 points is a sum we can make up. Webb needs to get his face out there and get some TV ads running. No one said this was going to be easy, but I'm ready to fight the next 3 and a half months.

Jim's in striking distance, but I don't like the trend in that graph.

Also, Casey and Brown are challengers, so the 9 point spread is not really comparable to Webb here.

When is Webb going to put out some adds, print some new signs etc.?

Can we get a link to the Wall Street Journal site that shows the polling info on the selected races?

That PA and OH are hardly the most competitive.  PA might be most likely to flip parties, but the ones that look neck-and-neck competitive are MT and MO.

This race is winnable, but the BIG thing that Webb needs is to start getting his name out there.  This isn't going to be a fundraising post, but it's clear that name recognition continues to be the hurdle.

I'll be curious to see the next round of Rasmussen, SUSA, etc.  This is just another reason why we all need to be donating our time, MONEY and energy to this campaign.  As I've said before, this next round of polls may decide whether the DSCC decides to take this race seriously.  It's time for action.

Of course that could go up or down and could be impacted by RI and CT (not included here).  This means this race is solidly in the "relevant race" category but we need to keep it there.  Slipping a couple places would force the DSCC to focus elsewhere.  We can't let that happen.

in ads may have paid off some for Allen, from June, prior to the Primary to now. 

We all have to get Jim's issues out there one event at a time.  Tabling, tabling, tabling!!

I think the grassrooters coupled with our Democratic party in all parts of the state should kick into HIGH gear and this chart and its trend is part of the notion. 

Let's shrink the 10 points down by one point every week, we have approx. 14 weeks to Election Day and well, there you have it +-3 points.

There is a new rasmussen poll out as well but it is only available to subscribers.  Has anyone heard what the numbers are?

I went out for coctails with a friend of mine. He was meeting some people who I had never met before.

Of course I wearing my Webb button and a Vote Democrat sticker. Of the 10 people at the table, only 1 person had heard of Jim Webb (loved him), 1 was a rabid republican and the rest nerver heard of him.

One can conclude that "regular people", those for whom politics is an afterthought, are not paying attention and the upside for Webb is great as he begins to successfully introduce himself to Virginia and make the case for change.

to Arlington Mike and Kevin's comments. 

It's true that the average Virginian probably doesn't know Webb or has very little knowledge of him.  He needs to gain some name recognition pronto.

And just as Allen has been running ads, likely helping him a little (very little, but still something) in the latest poll, Webb needs to get some ads out there.  They don't even need to be homerun ads - just a get to know him or show him off for the great candidate/leader he is.

I was told by someone (I want to say a professor my first year) that the real political season doesn't really start until after labor day.  Still I would like to see Webb out there a bit more.  Eventhough I voted for Webb in the primary I have a feeling that Miller would be a little bit more aggressive right now.

On another note I really have mixed feelings about this Senate race.  On one hand I can't stand Allen and think he isn an embarrassment for Virginia.  On the other hand if he is defeated he will be out of the running for president, allowing a more viable Republican candidate a better chance at nomination.  Let's be honest Allen does for Republicans what Hillary does for Democrats: write off several lean states and push several swing states into lean to likely Democratic.  At this point if Allen is the nominee against just about any Democrat he loses CA,OR,WA,MI,MN,WI,IA,IL,PA,NY,MA,NH,ME,VT,CT,RI,MD,DE,NJ, and ready for this?: OH and possibly NV& NM (enough to win th electoral map).  These states simply will not go for another 4 years of Bush-like policies. If Warner or another moderate is the Democratic nomniee you could probably add VA, MO and possibly FL to that list, making it a complete wash out.

No question things get interesting around Labor Day.  It is at that point when the party leaders, donors and media will decide if this is truly a race to watch/support.  That is especially tricky for Webb.  He needs to stay competitive until then but has to do it without any resources our widespread advertising.  Not an easy thing to do.  The catch 22 is that the DSCC won't funnel a lot of money until they know he's competitive, and he can't be fully competitive without the money.  That's where we come in...

He has a past chock full of flakey behavior and a record of voting in full support of the train wreck called Bush43.  He arrived at the station house of Presidential wannabees one election late.  America doesn't want Bushlite.  Hell, it doesn't want Bush, or Son of Bush.

polls had Allen ahead of Webb by 10% points, so the debate was not the trigger.  Also Allen was spending approx. 1 million during the week of 10 June - 17 June.  Allen spent an additional 700k and his numbers are still the same. So maybe Allend DID NOT spend his money very wisely, something we CANNOT afford to do.

Polls are good, but one has to watch a lot of them over time.
The bottom line, spend the funds wisely, get the candidate to the people and get the issues on the table, re: tabling, tabling, tabling!!  Let's put Jim's issues in every corner of the State.  I will be at the Clarendon Farmer's Market this Wed and every Wed from 3-7 until the end of October (oh I am still looking for others to help me). kc.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12345

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Virginia’s George Allen could be re-elected to the United States Senate, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 51 per cent of respondents in the Old Dominion State would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 41 per cent would vote for Democratic challenger James Webb.

Rasmussen was 10% and has a new poll out today.  The one you've linked is the old one.  The Zogby poll actually moved from 5% to 10% but is still competitive.

As for Allen's spending, don't forget, just because the money was spent during a certain time period doesn't mean the ads were all run.  In this case, Allen's $1.7 million ad buy includes purchase of airtime for August as well.  Ultimately the Allen folks will judge their ads' effectiveness by how long Allen stays above 50% and Webb stays around 40%.

the new poll out today is not reflective of the debate either.

My point was that these polls are very fluid, and if you look at one taken at the end of June and one now 3 weeks later, it is going to be very fluid.  The above graph looks like Allen increased his lead from 1 June to July 1 and I don't think that was the case. 

Would love to see the new poll too. kc

but, those who do not like Bush, 3:1 for WEBB.
Good news.

A lot of work to be done gang.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/06/29/in_virginia_allen_holds_big_lead_over_webb.html

In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, a new Survey USA poll gives Sen. George Allen (R-VA) a sizable lead over James Webb (D), 56% to 36%.

Key findings: "Allen gets 90% of Republican votes. Webb gets 79% of Democratic votes. Independents favor Allen by 15 points. Webb wins among the most educated voters and ties Allen in Northeast Virginia. Likely voters who approve of President Bush's job performance support Allen 32:1. Likely voters who disapprove of Bush's performance support Webb 3:1."

for Allen.

Just remember, the closer the race the easier it is to rig the election and "flip" the results so your guy wins. I think the Dems and the Progressives need to start thinking seriously about how they are going to monitor this election so we can detect any funny business. Sarah John has some ways to monitor this so I suggest people interested contact her. She heads up the Falls Church DFA. You can find her at www.dfalink.com. Just put in a Falls Church zip code and the Falls Church group will come up. You can john the group and e-mail her from there.

Assuming that election rigging doesn't happen is naive so be on your guard.

While I agree that we need to have trained poll watchers on election day to complain if the machines are acting up, the real opportunity to steal votes is in the absentee process.  We know this only too well in Scott County.  Every jurisdiction needs to keep an eye on the absentee voter applications and report any problems to the local Board of Elections.  If they won't investigate contact Jean Jensen, Secretary of the State Board of Elections.  If you suspect criminal activity, you can ask the local Commonwealth's Attorney to investigate.

I hope that the prosecutions in Gate City and Appalachia have put a damper on this fraud, but I'm not holding my breath.  And I'm not about to let down my guard.  Section 24.2-706 of the Code of Virginia requires the Registrar to allow any registered voter to copy the absentee voter applications during normal business hours.  Someone should be obtaining the copies and scrutizing them for flaws.  CAVEAT:  I don't want to discourage people who have legitimate reasons from voting absentee, but we need to remember that Viriginia does not have an open voting period (Repubs keeping killing the bill) and the reasons for voting absentee are highly restrictive.

Just to let you know, this was also a late June poll, and the numbers got better for Jim in a very short time.

Very fluid these polls.

Okay, let's clear all of this up.  It's time to start comparing apples to apples.

A month ago Zogby had this race at Allen +5.  That has moved to Allen +10 (which is only slightly statistically significant).

A month ago Rasmussen had Allen +10.  Now Allen is +11.  Rasmussen is the poll that had Allen +20 over both Miller and Webb awhile before the primary.

Survey USA has not released a new poll.  Their latest poll had Allen +19 or +20 depending on which voters are used.

Trends in polls are only valuable if you compare the same poll.  Comparing different polls with different methodologies is useless.  In this case, it looks like this race, in the short term, is settling into the Allen +10 range.  Not bad but Webb needs to start a move into the mid 40s.

On a sidenote, I still think the Zogby poll has an awful methodology.  I'm not going to repeat my criticism of a month ago but nothing in these numbers changes the problems with using a self selected internet sample.

Zogby, tell US more.  I totally agree with you, comparison using the same methodology is very important to be sure.

How did Kaine's number compare at this time before the election with Kilgore from the various polls?

Essentially, Zogby solicits people to sign up to be polled.  They give all their personal information and the Zogby folks call 2% to check on their information.  They then do an internet poll of these people who signed up to be polled.  Not a traditional internet poll but definitely a unique methodology that is not accepted by anyone else.  At the risk of sounding like Mr. Wadhams from last month, it is shocking that the WSJ would run a poll using this methodology.  Of the 3 groups polling VA, I'd put SUSA and Rasmussen well above this type of Zogby poll.  Below is the methodology from Zogby's site.  I'll let everyone form their own opinions.

Zogby Interactive Battleground Tracking Methodology

These polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company's Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.

Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.

Zogby telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent e-mails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls. "Zogby has been building on the database since 1998, constantly cleaning them to guarantee quality. Zogby has also been building dozens of data points on poll respondents over the years to increase the depth of knowledge about those in a given sample."

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 19 states (AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 25 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers in Utica, N.Y. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the horseraces in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

for Allen, according to WaPo today.  Allen spent a bundle already.  A breakdown of where the money came from is given below.  Looking at it too to see the conversation about the debate from this weekend.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/funding/n00009957/

Those numbers are actually from the last reporting period that covers through the end of June (if I remember correctly).  The numbers as of today are, therefore, different.  For example, after these numbers came out Allen raised about $250,000 in a single day with 2 events.

For those who really wanna see the fundraising problems close up, pull up both Allen's and Webb's numbers.  Look at the top 10 or so donors to Webb and compare them to Allen.  If Webb is not going to get big money at the top we need an ARMY of people giving lesser amounts.

Post debate debate held today at 12, WaPo.

Looks like Wadhams has a hard time with Zogby as well. kc.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/07/21/DI2006072100844.html

were made after the June poll that was only a 5 point spread.  Wadhams comments went a little over the top (surprise surprise) but I actually agreed with the substance which was that the poll had a terrible methodology.  Not necessarily helpful to one side or the other, just bad.

Allen has internal polling too, and it obviously disagreed with Zogby's poll at the time. Wadhams would not have come that much against it if he thought it was credible. After all, he did not know when the next poll might come out backing up Zogby if he thought the numbers were correct but was lying anyway. The Zogby poll at the time must really have been different from internal polls.

coming from out of state.

The zip codes are amazing to, particularly the NOVA ones.  I see some tabling in those areas coming up.