19. Virginia's 2nd District: This race makes the Line for the first time. Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D) is already running television ads that tout him as an "independent voice" for the district, a contrast to Rep. Thelma Drake (R), whom Kellam paints as walking in lockstep with President Bush. A Kellam poll released recently showed the soundness of that strategy. Just 32 percent of the sample approved of the job Bush was doing, compared with 62 percent who disapproved. Kellam led in the head-to-head question, 45 percent to Drake's 42 percent. Remember that Gov. Tim Kaine (D) won this district in 2005 -- a sign that voters are willing to side with a Democrat with the right message.
Excellent. Not to get too greedy or anything, but in the next few weeks and months, I hope to see 1 or 2 more Virginia Congressional races added to Cillizza's Top 20. For instance, it definitely looks like Judy Feder is competitive with Frank Wolf. In addition, there are good signs coming from internal polls by Andy Hurst and Al Weed. Last but not least, although Chris Cillizza doesn't rank the Senate races, something tells me we're going to have a barn burner in Webb vs. Allen. All in all, it's a great time to be a Virginia Democrat!