Remember how, leading up to the invasion of Iraq, we heard constant talk about how overthrowing Saddam and creating a Democracy in Iraq would "transform" the Middle East? For instance, in August 2002:
[Vice President Dick] Cheney revealed some of the thinking in a speech in August when he made the administration's case for a regime change. He argued Hussein's overthrow would "bring about a number of benefits to the region" and enhance US ability to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process."When the gravest of threats are eliminated, the freedom-loving peoples of the region will have a chance to promote the values that can bring lasting peace," he told the national convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars.
"Lasting peace," huh? Is that like when World War I was called "the war to end all wars?" Yeah, well, we see how THAT worked out. But, as Harry Truman once said, "Those who do not read and understand history are doomed to repeat it."
Speaking of those who didn't understand history and were "doomed to repeat it;" back in late 2002, Meyrav Wurmser, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington DC summarized the "neocon" argument as follows:
"Look, we already are pushing for democracy in the Palestinian Authority - though not with a huge amount of success - and we need a little bit more of a heavy-handed approach," she said. "But if we can get a democracy in the Palestinian Authority, democracy in Iraq, get the Egyptians to improve their human rights and open up their system, it will be a spectacular change. After a war with Iraq, then you really shape the region."
At the time, critics called the whole neocon idea of remaking the Middle East as a peaceful, Democratic, pro-Western region via the transformation of Iraq misguided, naive, and flat-out wrong. For instance:
"There are some people who religiously believe that Iraq is the beginning of this great new adventure of remapping the Middle East and all these countries. I think that's a simplistic view," said Judith Yaphe, an Iraq scholar and senior research professor at the National Defense University.
Well, guess what. It looks like the "neocons" - Cheney, Wolfowitz, Perle, etc. - were dead wrong, and the "critics" dead right. Today, the Washington Post reports on the mess we now face in the Middle East:
The Bush administration suddenly faces three rapidly expanding crises in the Middle East, but it has limited options to defuse tensions in any of them anytime soon, U.S. officials and Middle East experts say.Israel has sent troops into Gaza and Lebanon over three captured soldiers -- one held by Hamas in Gaza and two seized yesterday by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States and its allies set a collision course with Iran over its nuclear program. And there is mounting concern that Iraq's sectarian violence is crossing the threshold to a full-blown civil war.
A common thread in the three crises is Iran -- for its support of the two Islamist groups, its alleged funding and arming of Iraqi militias and extremist groups, and its refusal to give a final response to the Western package of incentives designed to prevent it from converting a peaceful energy program into one to develop nuclear weapons.
In other words, it looks like the invasion of Iraq not only hasn't worked, but has backfired vis-a-vis the regional power balance.
Specifically, the Iraq war has led to (not surprising) countermeasures by Iran. In true realpolitik, chessboard geopolitical fashion, Iran has countered the U.S. presence in Iraq through use of proxies in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq, all of whom are targeting U.S. interests and allies in the region. At the same time, Iran has taken advantage of the U.S. quagmire in Iraq to accelerate its nuclear program. And, Iran has benefited greatly from the tripling in oil prices - and Iranian oil export revenues - resulting IN PART from the U.S. invasion of Iraq and resultant instability in the Middle East.
The bottom lie here is that the war in Iraq, which was sold to us by the Bush Administration as supposdly a way to bring peace and stability to the Middle East, has now led to the exact opposite. Today, we face possible war between the United States and Iran, Israel and Syria, Israel and Lebanon. We also face a near-complete breakdown in the Israeli-Palestinian "peace process." Oh, and let's not forget an increasingly brazen North Korea, while we're bogged down indefinitely in Iraq.
Heckuva job, Bush, Cheney, and your clones in the U.S. Senate like GeorgeBushAllen! Over the past 3+ years, you have actually succeeded in greatly WEAKENING the United States militarily and politically, while totally distracting us from the fight against Al Qaeda and other, related terrorist groups. As my you may recall, it was 19 AL QAEDA members who attacked us on 9/11, NOT Saddam Hussein or even the Ayotollahs in that other member of the "Axis of Evil," Iran. But why bother with the facts when you've got your grand theory to go by? Yeah, that's one heckuva job alright.
Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign. The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.
Heckuva job!
President Hugo Chávez wants to reduce Venezuela's dependence on the US as its premier market for oil and to divert more to China. Sales of Venezuelan oil to the US fell 6 per cent to 178m barrels in the first four months of this year, from 190m barrels in the same period last year.
Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and it currently ships 1.5m b/d, about 60 per cent of its output, to the US.
Venezuelan exports of oil to China have risen from about 14,000 b/d in 2004 to 80,000 b/d last year. Mr Chávez said recently that Venezuela should be sending 300,000 b/d to the Asian country.
Mr Chávez has threatened to "cut off" oil supplies to the US if the Bush administration continues, as he alleges, to conspire against his self-described "socialist revolution".
The threats prompted Richard Lugar, the Republican chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, to commission an investigation in December 2004 by the Government Accountability Office. The findings, published last month, warned that a Venezuelan oil "embargo" would lead to an immediate $11 spike in oil prices.
I think that we really ought to go ahead and do it," Robertson said. "It's a whole lot cheaper than starting a war ... and I don't think any oil shipments will stop."
The mess is almost beyond solving by now, and I sometimes get the feeling the republicans are holding it together with duct tape only until they can turn everything over to hapless Democrats, and then blame the Democrats when it finally all comes unglued.
A piece for Halliburton. A Piece for Exxon/Mobil. A Piece for Bechtel. A Piece for Chevron...
;-)
Bad presidents get us into catastrophes through an utter lack of vision, common sense and management ability. James Buchanan fumbled us into the Civil War by allowing the conflict over slavery to just keep bleeding on and on. Herbert Hoover got us into the Great Depression by intransigently sticking to his guns even after it was obvious to everyone but him that his guns were shooting blanks.
So what has Bush now gotten us into? I shudder to even think about where we're headed. The Iraq War has been a boon to terrorists and to Iran, which it has greatly strengthened, while a disaster to America, which has been greatly weakened. Our enemies see America tied down like Gulliver by the Lilliputians and are doing their best to take advantage. And the example of bloodshed and force that Bush is making serves only to encourage more of the same.
With Bush's fiscal legacy of turning surpluses into deficits, his environmental legacy of turning away from Kyoto to allow the oil companies -- and global warming -- free rein, and his social legacy of polarizing the country, by for example, scapegoating Latino immigrants and gays, what kind of world will that leave us when he finally, finally leaves office?
All the more reason to do all that we can to elect a Democratic House and Senate to at last try to rein this man in and bring common sense back to Washington. I've never seen the stakes higher.
What a mess.