Virgil Goode weak says Zogby -- UPDATED with Liveblog info

By: Al Weed for Congress
Published On: 7/9/2006 10:49:58 PM

Al will be talking about the poll, progress on the campaign trail, and anything else you ask about on Virginia Progressive at 3 pm. Come one, come all.

For Immediate Release

A recent survey of Virginia's 5th Congressional District by Zogby International reveals only 46% of likely voters believe Representative Virgil Goode (R- Rocky Mount) deserves to be re-elected. On a generic congressional ballot, voters favor the Democratic challenger over the Republican incumbent by 48.5% to 37%.


"I was pleased to see the results of Zogby's poll, but I was not surprised. Virginians know it is time for a change. Republicans and Democrats are telling me that they are fed up. Our trust has been betrayed by George Bush and the Republican Party, and Mr. Goode is a part of that"-¥ said Al Weed, Goode+óGé¼Gäós Democratic challenger.

Weed is viewed favorably by a 3 to 1 ratio. The Nelson County farmer received 35% of the vote and held Goode to 49.2% in a head to head match-up. Weed's showing is impressive considering his 60% name recognition within the 5th District. Following positive and negative descriptions of each candidate, Weed trailed Goode by only half a percent, 40% to 40.5%.

A majority of 5th District voters, 54.9%, view President George W. Bush unfavorably. 59.7% believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Displeasure with Republicans in Congress and the White House, as well as Rep. Goode's questionable ties to convicted felon Mitchell Wade and the MZM scandal show that Goode is vulnerable for defeat.

The survey was conducted on June 26-28 among 601 likely voters in the largely rural 5th district. The margin of error is +/- 4.1%.


Comments



Go Weed! (summercat - 7/10/2006 7:59:57 AM)
I don't live in the district, but Al Weed sounds like my dream candidate, from stuff that has been posted over time on RK.  Glad he is becoming the district's dream (and Goode's nightmare) as well!


Al is great :) (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2006 11:56:55 AM)
And it looks like the campaign is planning a lot of door knocking.

Meanwhile, Goode seems to be hiding out.  It's great to have a rapport with the folks back home, but at some point a congressman really has to do some work, whether he likes DC or not.  And apparently Goode does not like Washington.

News articles on his web site are undated, and I can't tell  what endorsement is from the 2004 election and what's from 2006.  Does he have any 2006 endorsements?

http://www.virgilgoode.com/

Here's wikipedia on Goode
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_Goode

At least they have some up-to-date info (see last line about the current race).

 



We Are Going To (Mark - 7/10/2006 8:13:04 PM)
either call or canvass this entire county. It will be an effort that hasn't been tried around here in a long while, if ever.

That makes about 2-3,000 residents of the county that we have identified as Democrats or have voted Democratic in the past. Frankly, we will need all the help we can get, and I am counting on being able to self-propel the effort by picking up callers and canvassers as we go along.

There isn't anything that is too much for us to do to get Al Weed elected.



DK (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2006 12:06:01 PM)
kos has front paged these stats.


I think these generic ballot numbers might be deceiving. (not gretchen bulova - 7/10/2006 12:47:45 PM)
I think there are many people in VA-5 who still consider themselves Democrats, if only because that is the party of the parents and grandparents.  They aren't actually Democrats.

Goode's relect is 46%, which is fairly robust for these times.

Goode looks good for relection, we need to focus on Drake, she's the vulnerable one.



focus on Weed (martha - 7/10/2006 1:15:52 PM)
Don't concede any District. Don't ignore this part of the state. Al Weed, I wager, is smarter than almost every other DEM running throughout Virginia. Just because he is in a tough District don't write him off!


I didn't say concede. (not gretchen bulova - 7/10/2006 1:34:53 PM)
The 50 state and every district plan is great.  In the end though, only certain races are winnable in a given year. 


Re-alignment (Admiral - 7/10/2006 2:13:51 PM)
It is the "only certain races are winnable in any given year" thinking that makes us the minority party.  We need to think bigger-scale.  Newt Gingrich was not daunted in '94, and we cannot be daunted now.  If we are to have any chance of retaking the House, we will do so in the races that are not nationally recognized as winnable races.

Right now, the tide of public opinion has turned against Republicans.  I don't think we'll ever have a better chance than now to unseat Repulicans, and the more credible challenges we mount, the more successful we will be.



There is opportunity in the 5th (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2006 1:44:47 PM)
The environment is way different this time around.


in the most blue areas of the 5th..... (Roger Jarrell - 7/10/2006 2:52:11 PM)
Goode is still strong because everyone knows him...and they knew his father.  His family has been representing mooonshiners for a long time.

Certain portions of the 5th are untouchable for Weed.  The tobacco growers still have a bitter taste in their mouths from the Clinton era...and will not forget.

Your best bet is to drive up the numbers in the Charlottesville area...but even then that will only get you so far.



A better shot than you think (Admiral - 7/10/2006 4:15:23 PM)
Its interesting that you mention the tobacco growers.  After the tobacco buyout, tobacco farming is no longer the sure bet it once was, and is becoming unproductive.  Now, Virgil Goode pressed for the buyout, but now is content to let the farmers fail on their own.  And fail many of them are.  There was an article in the Gazette-Virginian last week about farms that have been around for over 100 years, but face an uncertain future.  Goode believes that this is an irreversible consequence of the open market, but Al wants to work with them however he can.

Addressing specifically tobacco farmers, Al wants to push switchgrass as a replacement crop.  This would be almost as profitable as tobacco, and would have the advantage of helping us along the path towards energy independence.  And for the record, switchgrass is a source for cellulosic ethanol, which is significantly more efficient than corn-based ethanol. 

So really, the only thing preventing tobacco farmers from voting for Al is whether Al can reach out to them effectively.

And as for turnout... Charlottesville should turn out strongly for Al, yes.  But so should Danville.  Martinsville may very well stuck with a $1 million check to the state government because Goode helped out his friends at MZM, so no one in Martinville should vote for Goode.  And lets not forget that the 5th went to Kaine in '05.



An old adage.... (Roger Jarrell - 7/10/2006 4:36:00 PM)
....just remember this....you can't beat somebody with nobody.

Sorry, you best place your efforts elsewhere.  It ain't gonna happen.



That depends on your personal definitions. (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2006 8:04:14 PM)
Al Weed is a self-made self-starter with a great resume and record.  Pedigrees matter at dog shows and county fairs.

The MZM problem has yet to be resolved, and gravy train or not - party affiliation in exchange for committee seat or not - the 5th district is relatively poorer than when Goode took office.  While materialism is all but a deadly sin around here, nobody likes to get taken for a ride. 



Puh-lease. (I.Publius - 7/10/2006 9:13:04 PM)
the 5th district is relatively poorer than when Goode took office.

What a load of crap.

Numbers, missy.  Show us some numbers.



Is this the Admiral (Mark - 7/10/2006 4:42:19 PM)
that recently moved to VA and posts on Dkos?

Welcome to Virginia!!!

Mark Brooks
(Dems2004 on DKos)



Agreed Kathy. (not gretchen bulova - 7/10/2006 3:07:01 PM)
It is definitely different in 2006 as of right now.  Is it 20+ points different?  I don't think so.


We'll have to see. (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2006 8:16:58 PM)
Either 1) Virgil was complicit in the MZM scheme 2) he was incredibly gullible and taken for a ride.

Friend or not, dynastic tradition or not, at some point people want to see the job get done, and we do have an alternative.



COMMENT HIDDEN (I.Publius - 7/10/2006 9:14:12 PM)


the troll rating is deserved on this one (teacherken - 7/10/2006 10:39:49 PM)
because you disagree with someone does not entitle you to name calling


you should try to distinguish a "disagreement" (I.Publius - 7/11/2006 5:40:29 AM)
from a recognition of ignorance.  They are not the same thing.


Kathy is right (Greg Kane - 7/10/2006 11:23:25 PM)
I.Publius - you make much more sense when you talk about Albemarle County bridges.

Now I have to admit that I was one of those folks who did not think Al Weed had a chance. I have revised my thinking and the Zogby poll has helped that along.

Virgil is a bonehead that has had a good ol' boy charm that sold well when the Republicans were on a roll. I'm sure all of the years of cracker barrel stumping will still be a real asset to him in this run. However, the tide is moving away from him and his links to the pay to play crowd will hurt. His links to the incompetent Congressional leadership will also cost him. He’ll pretend to be an independent but voters will know he really is a Republican in a key position on the Appropriations Committee.

Al Weed has worked this district for years and his name recognition is beginning to pay off. Al also has Jim Webb at the top of the ticket and that is also a major asset that he has not had before. Jim Webb is adding to the "tide" swing and it will have coattails for Al.

Recent canvassing results are coming in and it confirms what the polls are saying. Virgil Goode is in trouble. Al Weed is in striking distance of Virgil...much more so than I thought just a few weeks ago.

At a minimum, the 5th CD is no longer a certainty for Virgil no matter how unhappy this makes the right wing.



Nice (I.Publius - 7/11/2006 5:43:15 AM)
"Virgil is a bonehead"

And you're worse than one for thinking Virgil is anything of the sort.  You disagree with his politics, so that makes him a bonehead?  Wow. 

Go ahead, pour lots of money into Weed's campaign pit.  It'll be money well spent.  ;-)