Last year after the Governor's race had been called for Tim Kaine, no doubt most of you were in an intense euphoric state (perhaps aided by a drink or two). For those of you who can remember, before Jerry the Duck came out and gave his concession speech, Felix calmed the GOP crowd and consoled them on the beatdown they had suffered. He threw out some ridiculous banter about being the party of ideas, about representing freedom, about leading the country, blah blah blah. The sentiment was clear: Felix was the captain of the team, Jerry was his awkward younger brother who couldn't carry his weight. Jerry had failed, but Felix would always prevail.
Here's the problem with that sentiment: Right now, I don't think Felix is in any stronger of a position than Jerry.
Hold on you say. We don't like Felix, but surely he's a stronger candidate than Jerry. But while Felix has won twice statewide, Jerry scored an impressive victory in 2001 over McEachin, garnering 60% of the vote. And while Felix has more money, more name recognition, and a little more smarts than Jerry, he's about to run into a big roadblock.
He is running against popular opinion on almost every issue.
Flashback a year ago with me. Jerry is running for Governor in a tough position. He's running to succeed the most popular Governor in Virginia's modern history, and he's doing so as a member of the opposition party. His base demands that he carry the party line, but he can't be stricly partisan or he'll get swamped by moderate voters. So how does Jerry present himself to the voters? His first TV ad had a narrator say something along these lines:
"It's about taking a tough stand on the issues. Abolishing parole for violent criminals. Protecting women and children from domestic abuse."
Now Jerry obviously lost a lot of support among the Beat Women Coalition and the Association for the Freedom of Murderers and Rapists (contrary to conservative myth, these are not important special interests in the Democratic Party). The larger point of this is that Jerry could not go face to face with Kaine on the issues of Education, Health Care, and Economic Development. So he resorted to character spots and trying to trash Kaine's intergrity. As the election results dictated, the charges did not stick.
Now I have said before that issues don't matter in an election. I stand by that, only clarifying that issues matter only if they serve to tell a narrative of the candidate. Kaine's narrative was simple: Catholic missionary, dedicated to a life of service to others, committed to working across party lines to solve Virginia's problems. Jerry's narrative: Eh, something along the lines of prosecutor who would take the bold move of executing Hitler if he could build a time machine, outsource important decisions to a referrendum vote, and make education 'focus on getting back to the basics'. The result was a 52-46 beating of Jerry, a margin I think would have been wider if it weren't for Kaine's eyebrows (damn you people's eyebrow!) and his F rating from the NRA.
Now come back to the present with me. George Allen is in a bit of a pickle. Virginia has grown more moderate. He's voted with an unpopular President 97% of the time. His party has overseen the greatest increase in spending since Lyndon Johnson, the greatest invasion of personal privacy since Richard Nixon, and the greatest foreign policy blunder since the founding of our nation. So what does George Allen tell the voters of Virginia in his first TV ads?
"Hey, remember when I was Governor? I abolished parole and gave you the SOLs. Wasn't that cool? Oh yeah, in the Senate I pushed for technology grants for minority colleges, even though some would have advocated just sending them candy and crayons. I took a tough stand. Aren't I a great leader? Look at these obscure quotes complimenting me! Wolf Blitzer and the Washington Times complimented me! Aren't I great?"
The second ad was the real kicker, showing Allen with his family. "I'm working on new laws to protect our children from internet predators. We need to protect our children. I love my children. Look at how precious they are. Doesn't loving my children make me a great Senator?"
To use Felix's lingo, those ads are all hat and no cattle. I can't imagine any voters look at those ads and become convinced Felix is a leader.
Now I write this not to say we've got a cakewalk, but to encourage you all to believe that Webb is going to win. Just as Kaine won last year, it's going to be a long, hard battle. We're facing off against the best GOP operatives in the country, we've got a novice candidate, and huge gaps in name recognition and fundraising. Just as Jerry tried to call Kaine a flip flopper and someone lacking in character, Allen will try the exact same thing. That being said, we do have one tremendous advantage.
Jim Webb is a better person than George Allen.
Now I'm not usually one to make such blunt statements, but I think it's true on every test of character.
Service to our country? Intelligence? Leadership? Empathy for others? Authenticity? On all of these fronts, the Webb campaign has a better story to tell. We've got the best narrative, and that's what wins. If we get the message out, Webb is going to win. I guarantee it.
;)
Great diary, and I loved remembering sweet, sweet victory. I also liked picturing Jerry going back in time to try to kill Hitler.
Scott was so mediocre that, realizing he would likely lose to Democrat Andrew Miller, he retired, allowing John Warner to edge out Miller by a tiny margin (50.17% to 49.79%).
Allen reminds me of Scott; an ineffectual doof who only got in because his opponent had a bad year, and who hasn't done anything to distinguish himself in the meantime.