According to today's Charlottesville Daily Progress, "Virginia voters will cast ballots Tuesday in a set of primaries that officials worry could set records for low participation," possibly "10 percent or fewer" in counties where there is no hotly contested House of Delegates race on the ballot. The Washington Times is even more pessimistic, quoting unnamed "election officials predict[ing] a statewide voter turnout of 4 percent to 6 percent of registered voters. " That's very unfortunate, given the hotly contested Lt. Governor's race on the Democratic side, and the bitter battles for Lt. Governor and Attorney General on the Republican side. These races offer clear choices of ideology and character, meaning that Virginians have a chance on Tuesday to send a strong message. Of course, not voting at all certainly sends a message, such as "we don't care," or "frankly, we don't like ANY of these people," or simply "huh, there's a primary on Tuesday?"
I certainly hope turnout is not as low as election officials are predicting. If it is extremely low, however, that certainly should favor candidates with the best "get out the vote" (GOTV) operations and the most committed supporters. The question is, who's got those things?
I've got some anecdotal indications right now, but we really won't know until Tuesday evening so there's not much sense speculating a whole heck of a lot. Still, if my gut feeling is correct and almost nobody is particularly fired up about the statewide candidates this year, perhaps it will simply come down to name recognition. In that case, a candidate who has statewide recognition built up over many years, someone like Leslie Byrne, could do quite well on Tuesday. We'll see.
Something else to watch for on Tuesday is the pattern of statewide turnout. If, for instance, there is relatively heavy turnout in Northern Virginia, that could certainly help candidates like Leslie Byrne, Chap!™ Petersen, and Sean Connaughton. If turnout is relatively heavy in Southwest Virginia, perhaps Phil Puckett could get a boost. Finally, if African Americans turn out in high numbers, could that propel Viola Baskerville to victory?
For what it's worth, I once again strongly encourage people to vote on Tuesday. The bottom line is that we live in a representative republic, and voting is a key part of making that system work. Also, I realize it's old fashioned and maybe even a bit naive, but I still believe that voting is our patriotic duty, part of what Americans have fought and died for over the years. So please prove the election officilas wrong on Tuesday about low turnout. Please go vote. Thank you.