I just don't understand Shear.

http://www2.sbe.virginia.gov/web_docs/Election/results/2005/nov2005/html/

How can he mention Creigh who got 49.95% and ignore Leslie who got 49.32%.  Who is pushing these stories and why doesn't Shear get other sources? 

Seriously guys, after all the money people ran to Creigh, and we had to listen for all of 2005 to "Creigh is so electable, Leslie can't win" and the difference in votes is LESS THAN ONE PERCENT?

Shear's article just pisses me off.

Leslie couldn't win state-wide election if she changed her name to Mark Warner. 2005 was her best chance because Kaine did so well at the top of the ticket... And FYI: Creigh lost by 360 while Leslie lost by 23,000 when Kaine should have pulled her to victory... Big Difference!!!

I am the last person to make the case for Leslie Byrne for anything statewide but let me say this.

Creigh was awful.  Anyone who runs 6 points behind the gubernatorial candidate does not deserve to run statewide again.

Bob McDonnell had a regional base of support that Creigh didn't, Leslie had a regional base of support and Bolling barely had one... Creigh did well seeing he was from Bath County, Leslie did a Belly Flop seeing she is from NoVA.

He is still from Bath County.  He still has no regional base.  He still can't win, especially when he doesn't have someone like Kaine pulling him up by the boot straps. 

First it was he's a bad candidate... Then he doesnt have a regional base thus he cant win... Your just anti-Creigh...

BTW: When your at the top of the ticket, regional support isnt as important...

You brought up he had no base.  I just agreed with you, but he's still a bad candidate.  He can't appeal to SW, as he got beat down there, he can't appeal in NOVA, as he under-performed Kaine and Byrne.

To say you don't need a base to run at the top of the ticket is ludicrous.  Only if you are Mark Warner and have millions.

Kaine did extremely well in his base of Richmond/suburbs.  Kilgore did extremely well in SW.

The fact is Creigh would have won AG if he had just known how to appeal in NoVA. He underperformed there and couldn't capitalize on a Democratic wave. We need a candidate for Governor along the Mark Warner model if we intend on winning. I personally see Brian Moran as that candidate.

But we need a candidate who can win the suburbs like Kaine, not a guy like Deeds.

Will not be the Governor of Virginia... He may do well in NoVA, but the rest of the state is going to laugh that a New England Liberal thinks hes going to be their Governor.

isn't exactly Virginian.

with his opponent constantly on the air in NoVa, while he was not.  Give Creigh 100,000 for advertising in NoVa and he wins  without too much trouble.  People simply had no idea who he was.

But now, ironically partly as a result of the delay in adjudicating the election, he is better known.  I think you badly underestimate his potential as a statewide candidate.

We can't count on greatly outspending our Republican opponents in the most expensive media market in the state as a way to compensate for our candidate's lack of inherent regional support.

He was outspent, but it was also his own fault.

He had years raising money, no primary opponent.  Yet he still didn't come close. 

I don't care how badly you are outspent, when 52% of Virginia chooses Tim Kaine (Democrat) and over 10% of those vote for Bob McDonnell, you should not be running for statewide office again.

Sorry, I have been busy with the Hugo chat.

23,000 margin difference (i.e. 11,500 switched votes) out of almost 2,000,000 cast is nothing. 

Creigh's problem is the areas where he ran 3rd behind Tim and Leslie are also the fastest GROWING areas, so they will be even more of the electorate come 2009.

But I just picture her as Senator Leslie Byrne. I think she has a really good shot of joining Jim Webb in 2008. Leslie Byrne vs. Tom Davis, now that'd be a fight.

I dont see anything wrong with my comment or brimur.  James, respond with some facts if mine are wrong.

Uhm, Ben...

You seem to troll rate comments at random all the time...

I like the sound of President Mark Warner (2008), Governor Brian Moran, Lt Governor Leslie Byrne and Attorney General Creigh Deeds (2009).

Brian should run for AG and Leslie should retire (3 loses in a row!!!)

Jim Webb 06, Mark Warner 08, and Creigh Deeds 09... Anyway, Creigh All the Way!

Where have I seen that photo before?  Ha!

Nice picture Mark; why thank you!

It seems to me that Brian Moran is a moderate liberal from Northern Virginia in the mold of Mark Warner. While Creigh has a great profile he just isn't an ideal candidate for the state as it exists today. In order to win statewide nowadays you really have to be in tune with the suburban areas of the state like NoVA and the beach. And it doesn't hurt that Brian's proven his greater desire to run by raising so much money.

Brian Moran would be an amazing canddiate for Governor. He's from Northern Virginia and has been a terrific representative of the party for a long time. He's in the House Leadership and for the past two years has pretty much been going around the state relentlessly campaigning for other Democrats and helping raise money so that we can pick up seats.

Plus, he's got more money now than Kaine did at this point in 2002, so its pretty clear that if he'll be a major player in helping the party win back even more seats in 2007 and that he'll be a force to be reckon with if he decides to make a go of it in 2009.

I see you created a new account just for this comment (which is your first)... Its nice to know that Brian or his LA read the blogs...

hehe, nice catch James.

Who cares if someone who supports Brian wants to post?  Was that supposed to be a "gotcha" moment?

It was a joke, relax for a second, and just take the humorous statement for what it was.

Well, I'm sorry to say that I don't work for Brian Moran.  I can tell you though that he's a class act and that if he did run for governor I would work to help his campaign.

Does anyone really have minions any more? Although its a fun word to say and even more enjoyable to type, do they really exist today?

I think he just might be the one to take the Ds to victory in '09. I like Creigh but I am concerned about his stance on the Marshall/Newman amendment.

Wasn't Brian Moran the guy responsible for denying Donald McEachin (and anybody else who wanted to challenge an incumbent Democrat) access to voter data? I didn't like it then and I don't like it now.

And has anybody heard the guy speak? Boston accent aside, he just yells in a way that makes him a parody of a bombastic politician. This guy may have money, but he won't get votes outside of Northern Virginia.

Creigh's my man.

Creigh Deeds did not win because Doug Wilder refused to endorse him. There were thousands of voters who went to the polls, voted for Tim Kaine, and did not even cast a ballot for AG. In fact, I'm certain there were enough voters who thought that Wilder was giving a private wink towards McDonnell by not endorsing Deeds.

Wilder likes to play kingmaker, and he sure did that with McDonnell.

Deeds is a lightweight who opposed Wilder's one-gun-a-month program.  He was endorsed by the NRA, which was a bone-head move. 

I'm not a card carrying member, but the NRA endorsement was probably the only thing that kept the race close for Deeds. He ran very well in rural Virginia because of his strong support for 2nd amendment rights.

The debate in the Democratic Party over gun control should be over IMHO. No amount of legislation can keep criminals who want guns from getting them.

...they are really old, fermented and sour.  Anybody want
some?

Wilder?  Please.

When a candidate loses by the narrowest of margins, you can point to anything, however trivial, and blame the loss on it.  That doesn't change that the main reason that Deeds lost was that he was outspent by 2 million dollars in the last couple of weeks of the campaign - money funnelled to his opponent by Pat Robertson & Company.  They knew they had to beat Deeds - he's the Republican's worst nightmare.

I'm sure they are hoping (praying?!) for a liberal from NOVA such as Byrne or Moran to carry the banner for the Democrats next time around. 

Resume.

Creigh has been a Commonwealth's Attorney for a tiny rural county, and a part time legislator.

Brian has been a "big city lawyer", and a part time legislator.

Both will need to present the reasons why they are ready NOW to head up and manage a 74 Billion Dollar Budget.

That will be the key issue in 2009 that I see for our candidates to overcome.

says me.

Viola?  Really?

Just my two cents, but our House of Delegates is so screwed up in the head that we need to hang on to every last reasonable member of that organization in exactly the role they are in now.  Don't get me wrong, I love Delegate Moran as much as the next guy, but we need him to continue in that role until the HOD is safely and overwhelmingly literate if not Democratic.

The majority of the current batch of Delegates needs to be replaced, and that should be priority #1.

I'd like to see Mark Warner replace John Warner as a U.S. Senator if he can't be in V.P of the U.S.  I want someone with a smidge more military experience to be President.

Deeds would be fine as Governor, and so would Byrne.  Byrne has the advantage of not vacating an office to become Governor.  Virginia is shifting.  We may be able to sweep the state in 2009, past losses can be overcome.

According to Larry Sabato, Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim is a viable candidate(see http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=104115&ran=110045).  I'm not sure I buy that.  I don't think he is well known outside the Hampton Roads area.

As Dems, we should all take pride in the fact that Creigh Deeds, despite being outspent almost 2 to 1, came within 323 votes of defeating a Robertson-machine candidate.

Instead of being negative and nitpicking minutia of a now past campaign do something worthwhile.  For example, how about taking pride in both your party and its candidates.  Deafeatism breeds defeat -- get over it!

By any reasonable standard, Deeds fought the good fight.  We can ask no more of any candidate.  For that simple and oh so obvious reason he has earned the right to our full support in any future statewide endeavor. 

Here!!

I appreciate all the discussion here, but I must cast my lot for Senator Deeds. 

Creigh Deeds is a candidate with the proper experience to take up the mantle after Tim Kaine in 2009.  Deeds has already run an aggressive statewide campaign, and although he fell just a few hundred votes short--it was a victory.  The fact that a Democrat from rural Virginia without the big money Pat Robertson financing of Bob McDonnell came in that close for the Attorney General's seat is truly amazing.

Deeds has the experience and name recognition and he can raise money.  He raised close to three million dollars--that's more than any other down-ballot candidate in history.  It was a great accomplishment and with a couple more years to work I know that Deeds will only increase that fundraising base and yield even more donations to get him to the top.

The thing I think is most important about Creigh Deeds is that he is a genuine, kind-hearted man who gets people excited about government again.  Creigh Deeds is someone you can sit down and talk to, and someone who has an honest vision for reform in this state.  He is not imposing; he is not a typical politician, and he is not someone who will do something just to get elected. Senator Deeds means what he says, and takes the time to listen to voters.  That is more inspiring than anything I can think of.  Its that genuine quality that helped get Tim Kaine elected--people believed he would listen to them, and that he understood them. Senator Deeds has that quality and its not quantifiable----but its certainly there, and it almost made him Attorney General of this state.

If Virginia Democrats know whats good for us, we'll nominate Creigh Deeds to run for Governor in 09.  Mr. Moran and others are honorable Democrats, but they do not have Deeds' name recognition, character, or experience.