Potts on the Ballot: Marshall Coleman Redux?

According to Will Vehrs at Political State Report, "Fraternal organizations such as the Elks, Moose, and Police appear to have been the source for most of his signatures."  Also, according to Vehrs, "More women than men signed."  Interesting.

Not to toot my own horn too much here, but unlike many other bloggers and reporters in this state, I started taking Russ Potts seriously a long time ago -- back in February, actually.  At that time, I asked whether Russ Potts could turn out to be this year's Marshall Coleman (who helped deny Oliver North a US Senate seat in 1994).  I quoted UVA Political Science professor Larry Sabato (the real one, not "Not Larry Sabato") as saying this about a Potts candidacy:

It would greatly damage Kilgore. There are a lot of moderate Republicans in Virginia who are unhappy with the drift of the party in the last 10 or 15 years, and they will probably vote for [Mr. Potts]. It won?t be nearly enough to win, but it would be mainly bad news for Jerry Kilgore.

Speaking of moderate Republicans, I also pointed out at the time that "Potts is from the small, sickly, but not-quite-dead-yet, socially moderate part of the Republican Party" here in Virginia.  Which, by the way, helps explain why Potts endorsed George Fitch, Sean Connaughton, and Steve Baril the other day in the Republican contests for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General, respectively.

With Potts' entry into the race, I think it is interesting and instructive to look back once again at the final vote totals from 1994:  Chuck Robb  (D) 46%, Oliver North (Extreme Right Wing "R") 43%, Marshall Coleman (Moderate "R") 11%.  Could this be a harbinger of things to come this fall as well?  It's possible, but there are several important questions in this regard: 1) how many resources -- financial and otherwise -- will Potts have at his disposal in order to get his message out; 2) will Potts be able to split off significant support from moderate, pro-business, Chamber of Commerce-style Republicans like himself, or will the GOP unify strongly around Kilgore;  3) will the votes of moderate Republicans be enough to significantly impact the race, or will Potts simply draw evenly from both Kaine and Kilgore; 4) could Potts pull an incredible upset and win this November; and 5) will the absence of a sponsor like John Warner make Potts' candidacy this year less viable than Coleman's in 1994, or does that not really matter?

At this point, it's hard to answer these questions with any degree of certainty.  However, there is no doubt that the mere presence of Potts on the ballot complicates life for both Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore in different ways.  For Kilgore, the Potts' candidacy exposes a deep rift in the Republican Party between anti-tax zealots and religious fundamentalists on the one hand, and moderate Republicans on the other.  In response, will Kilgore tack to the hard right in this campaign, or will he attempt to run to the center?  Who will business interests end up supporting in this race?  Will the Republican Party's (mini) Civil War escalate even further and highlight the fact that Tim Kaine is the consensus, mainstream, fiscally responsible, Mark Warner Democrat in this race?  Or not?

Finally, what about the debates?  Will Kilgore continue hiding, or will Potts manage to flush him out?  If Kilgore does remain holed up in a cave somewhere for the next five months, will Kaine and Potts then stage a series of "empty chair" debates, in which Kilgore's place is held by a sign saying "AWOL: refused to debate?"  Even better, will Kaine and Potts rig up an inflated "Jerry the Duck" Kilgore robot that responds to questions in the absent Republican's own voice?  I can just hear it now, as the Kilgore dummy responds over and over again to whatever question is asked: "I have no duty to you, Mr. Lt. Governor, on this issue...You are reckless!" 

You know, this Governor's race really could turn out to be a heck of a lot of fun before it's all over.

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