UPDATE: 60 House races Democrats can take in 2006

By: Dan
Published On: 7/1/2006 12:52:23 PM

*This is an update from a story previously posted.  It is ongoing each month. The last list had 70 races, while this one has 60 that should be on the Democratic radar.  While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. Virginia-02 (Kellam vs. Drake) is now a top tier race.  Virginia-10 (Feder vs. Wolf) is on the fringe.  

**A full list of potential seats are at the end of story


Democratic challengers taking on House Republican incumbents this year are not waiting for the next Bush scandal to get a foothold in their Congressional Districts.  While Republicans regurgitate the same old nonsense policies on energy, health care, and Iraq, Democrats are creeping up on them in numerous polls, and starting to assert themselves as the future leaders of the 110th U.S. Congress.
When you look at the House race this fall, several trends emerge:
1) Several Republicans control districts that went for Kerry in 2004;
2) Even districts with more registered Republicans represent far less than a majority of eligible voters in the district;
3) Vulnerable Republicans are MORE vulnerable than in 2004, not less;
4) Vulnerable Democrats are LESS vulnerable than in 2004, not more;
5) Republicans are facing more vulnerable open seats than Democrats.

When I compiled this list, I considered several issues:
1) Whether the race has been deemed a target or vulnerable seat;
2) Whether it now an open seat;
3) Whether the incumbent got a low majority in 2004 (between 45-60%);
4) How Bush performed in the district in 2004;
5) Whether the incumbent has ethics issues;
6) How long the incumbent has been in office;
7) Based on conversations I have had with folks on Capitol Hill;
8) Based on news items, research into the races, and based on campaign websites;
9) Based on review and feedback from volunteers in other states and folks at Daily Kos.

In total, I have identified 60 vulnerable seats for Republicans in 25 states.  Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent.   With Bush's approval ratings nearly 15 points lower than they were in 2004, any Republican who was vulnerable in 2004, is far more vulnerable in 2006.  The Democrats still face some trouble, but no more than 15 seats are vulnerable (only 3 or 4 with any serious danger of losing the seat).  Overall, the number of Democratic seats that are vulnerable are less than ¼ the vulnerable seats as the Republicans, and overall the Democrats will face less blame for their problems than their Republican opponents.

Based on my research, I found the Democrats could pick up 12 seats based on current voting trends (disregarding a major voter backlash).  I found the Democrats could pick up 29 seats if voters show some backlash against the Republicans (based on the polls that show a majority of Americans wanting to return the Congress to the Democrats, and the possibility of decent voter turnout).  For all 60 seats to go (as well as any other races not on the list below) the backlash would have to be tremendous, voter turnout would have to be large for Democrats while Republicans would have to stay home. The Democrats would need a strong platform that rivals 1994's "Contract with America".  

Below is a list of key races in 2006.  Perhaps you have friends living in this district. Maybe they can volunteer or help out these campaigns.  The key is to get the word out about each race and do whatever you can to get out the vote where you live or in a nearby district.  

VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat"

Highly vulnerable races (12)
Colorado (07x)
Connecticut (02)
Florida (22)
Indiana (08, 09)
Iowa (01)
Kentucky (04)
New Mexico (01)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (06, 07)
Virginia (02)

Vulnerable races (17)
Arizona (05, 08x)
California (11)
Colorado (04)
Connecticut (04, 05)
Illinois (06x)
Minnesota (06x)
New Hampshire (02)
New Jersey (07)
New York (20, 24x)
North Carolina (11)
Ohio (01)
Pennsylvania (08)
Washington (08)
Wisconsin (08x)

Potential seats (31)
California (04, 26, 50x)
Colorado (06)
Florida (08, 09x, 13x, 16)
Illinois (10)
Indiana (02)
Kentucky (03)
Minnesota (01)
Nebraska (01)
Nevada (02x, 03)
New Hampshire (01)
New York (25, 26, 29)
North Carolina (08)
Ohio (04x, 15)
Pennsylvania (04, 10, 18)
Texas (06, 21, 22x, 32)
West Virginia (02)
Wyoming (at-large)

On the fringe
MI-09, MT (at-large), VA-10

***This article can change over time.  Some races will become closer and some will become more distant.  I will make further updates in August.

Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Washington Post key  races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Key House Races

Comments



statistical analysis may mislead you (teacherken - 7/1/2006 3:53:30 PM)
there is an additional seat in WA  05  - which might be in play.  That is because the Democratic candidate, Peer Goldmark, is a very unique character, a lifelong resident, with a PH D in molecular  biology from Cal Berkely yet is also a lifelong wheat rancher.  He served 8 years on local school boad, 1o years on board of Washington State (in the district), and had state-wide appointed office in agriculture, shows some evidence he might be able to reach his taret fundraising of a million dollars.

he is running against a 1st termer, Cathy mcMorris, who has done nothing, who has ties to several Republican scandals.

Disclosure -- I have known Peter for more than 40nyears, aswe were college classmates.  But I do not think that colors my analysis -  he has already done a good job building relationsh with the Washington state bloggers.  The various Dem candidates for governor are attempting to boost one another for synergy.

I would not yet put this in your top category, but would might well sayb it belongs in your second category.



Still not a hot race (Dan - 7/1/2006 6:33:31 PM)
These are pretty solid so far.  Some might be in question, but from the best sources I have.  The great thing is that Kellam's race is now a top tier race!