Democrats Widen Lead Over Republicans in Battle for Congress
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Voters increasingly see Democrats as the party best able to handle the top problems confronting the U.S., as Republicans struggle to hold their congressional majorities in midterm elections little more than four months away.
Registered voters favor Democrats over Republicans in contests in their congressional districts by 49 percent to 35 percent, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll finds. Fifty-four percent want to see Democrats control Congress, while 34 percent prefer that Republicans stay in power. In April, Democrats led Republicans 51 percent to 38 percent on the issue.
Democrats have opened up a 16-point lead on the question of which party is best equipped to tackle the nation's most urgent challenges. Democrats, who have long enjoyed a decided edge on issues such as health care and the economy, now find themselves preferred on the Iraq war, ethics and immigration -- issues where Republicans had been ahead, or where the public was more divided.
The turnaround suggests Republicans ``are headed for very difficult fall elections,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. ``The House of Representatives is in play, and the Democrats have a real chance'' to sweep back to power.
Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in the House to win control of the 435-member chamber, and need six seats to capture the 100-member Senate. Party officials say they are optimistic that at least one chamber will swing to their side this fall.
The Bloomberg/Times poll surveyed 1,321 adults, including 1,170 registered voters, from June 24 to 27. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
. New Direction
``Polls will go up and down before November, but one thing is clear: Americans are looking for a new direction,'' said Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Senate Majority Bill Frist of Tennessee disagreed, saying ``the contrast will be spelled out'' in fall contests. ``If we stay on the issues, we'll show that we're leading in a bold direction, and we will be successful,'' he said. ``We'll retain our majority.''
Still, Republicans seem to be in worse shape now than Democrats were at a similar point in 1994 going into an election that cost them control of Congress. A July 1994 Los Angeles Times poll found 44 percent of registered voters favored having Democrats control Congress, compared with 42 percent who felt the Republicans should take over.
General feelings of hostility toward a political party don't always lead to big changes in the partisan composition of Congress. That's because even alienated voters tend to support familiar incumbents in their own districts.
Entrenched Incumbents
``The short-term trend obviously favors Democrats, but that has to be translated into specific congressional districts and races,'' said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University, in Atlanta. ``They still have to put forward candidates who can unseat a Republican incumbent who is well- known.''
Respondents who participated in the Bloomberg/Times poll and follow-up interviews cited a long list of grievances against the Republican majority.
``It was Republicans who used to be fairly moderate and fiscally conservative. Now they are spending money like drunken sailors,'' said John Gavin, an 85-year-old retired life insurance agent from Wichita Falls, Texas.
``I believe they are selfish, greedy people,'' he said. ``Not that we don't have that in the Democratic Party, but they deserve their chance to get in there and try to do better.''
More Sensitive
Gavin, a Democrat who has voted for Republicans in the past, said another reason he wants to see Democrats in charge of Congress is that ``they are a bit more sensitive to the needs of people who for one reason or another need some form of assistance.''
The poll shows a plurality -- 38 percent -- say that the Iraq war is the most important issue facing the nation. And Iraq is the reason that Bill Antonetti, a 60-year-old veteran from Manchester, Connecticut, no longer supports the Republicans.
``At first I agreed with the war, but then the reports started coming out about our intelligence being wrong, and now here it is, 2006, and we've got soldiers getting blown up and dying for nothing,'' Antonetti said. ``I served in Vietnam, and this war is starting to look like Vietnam.''
Tax Cuts
Antonetti, who said he's worried about being able to pay for gasoline, heating oil and prescription drugs on his wife's income and the $1,300 he receives each month in Social Security disability payments, also faulted Republicans for ``just being there for their rich friends.''
``You look at the tax cuts. All that money goes to the wealthy,'' Antonetti said. ``People like me haven't gotten anything.''
Republicans continue to hold an advantage on terrorism and national security, where they have a nine-point lead over Democrats. The party's perceived strength in national security remains ``a strong suit for Republicans,'' Republican consultant Charles Black said. ``In a close race, it could provide the margin of difference.''
Overall, Republicans are now viewed favorably by just 31 percent of respondents and viewed unfavorably by 42 percent; in April, those numbers were 39 percent and 51 percent.
Regional Support
Democrats lead Republicans, 36 percent to 32 percent, on handling the war in Iraq and hold a 34 percent to 23 percent advantage on immigration. Asked which party best represents ``honesty and integrity,'' respondents chose Democrats, 31 percent to 24 percent.
Support for Democrats runs strong in all parts of the U.S., the poll shows. The party registered big advantages in the East and West, traditional strongholds, as well as the Midwest, a demographic analysis indicates. Even in the South, the Republicans' strongest region, Democrats led in the preference to control Congress by 46 percent to 41 percent.
If there is a glimmer of good news for Republicans, it may be that approval of Democrats has fallen recently as partisan squabbling has intensified in the run-up to November. Some 34 percent of respondents currently have a favorable view of Democrats in Congress, while 36 percent have an unfavorable opinion. In April, the Democrats' favorable rating was 41 percent.
Ratings for Capitol Hill Democrats ``are just coming down with those for Congress as a whole,'' said Thomas Mann, a congressional scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``The election is being driven by public reactions to the party in power, and the president,'' he said. In this environment, he said, ``Democrats stand to benefit simply by not being Republicans.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@bloomberg.net