Obviously, Virginia and Maryland are very different states politically. For instance, Virginia has two Republican US Senators, while Maryland has two Democrats. Virginia's Congressional delegation is 8-3 Republican, while Maryland's is 6-2 Democratic. The Virginia House of Delegates has a 57-40 Republican majority while in Maryland it's 98-43 Democratic. Etc., etc.On the other hand, Virginia has a Democratic governor (Tim Kaine), while Maryland has a Republican governor (Bob Ehrlich). Maryland has a strong conservative streak, especially in its more rural, western and eastern counties. Both states have large African American populations (20% in Virginia, 29% in Maryland). Both states were slave states in the Civil War, although Maryland went with the Union and Virginia with the Confederacy. In fact, Maryland's sympathies were largely with the South, forcing the declaration of martial law to keep Maryland in the Union. Today, the state song ("Maryland my Maryland") still contains a line referring to how Maryland "spurns the Northern scum!"
Anyway, whatever similarities or differences Virginia and Maryland might have, they both are holding important elections this November. In Maryland, there's a governor's race between incumbent Republican Robert Ehrlich and popular Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley. There's also a US Senate race, with an African American Republcian (Michael Steele) facing either Kweisi Mfume or Ben Cardin on the Democratic side. In Virginia, there's an important race for US Senate between incumbent George Allen (R) and challenger Jim Webb (D). Finally, in both case, recent polls have come out that have been good news for Democrats.
In Maryland, despite the fact that Gov. Ehrlich has decent popularity ratings (56% approve), he finds himself trailing Martin O'Malley by 16 points among likely voters in the latest poll. In Virginia, Senator Allen holds a slim lead (5 percentage points) over Jim Webb and a 52% approval rating - lower than Ehrlich's. In Maryland, just 27% believe things are going in the "right direction" in this country. In Virginia, it's not much better, with 31% of people choosing "right direction" and 65% "wrong direction."
In other words, Virginia and Maryland are different, but they're not all THAT different. The question is, will both Bob Ehrlich and George Allen be defeated this year by strong Democratic challengers? In Maryland, it's looking highly likely, although it's hard to count Ehrlich out with 4 months yet to go. Still, O'Malley looks strong. In Virginia, it's looking tougher, but remember that Jim Webb has far lower name recognition in Virginia than Martin O'Malley has in Maryland. And George Allen's approval ratins are actually lower than Bob Ehrich's. Finally, in both states, people think that the country is headed in the wrong direction and President Bush is unpopular.
The overall question is this: are there any lessons for Virginia in the latest Maryland poll results? What do you think? Thanks.