This is great news.  I had predicted (er, guessed) that Webb would have a spike in the polls following the primary.  But not by this much. 

I still look for a temporary drop in Webb's numbers as the primary hype dies down and then a strong come back as we move into fall. 

But with only a few points separating them now this is looking like it'll be a good race.

Things can change in a hurry as new people move into Virginia.  So much for the Zarquawi bounce for Bush.  People in Virginia are educated, and are appear willing to explore other options.  I'd like to think we have some real quality candidates this year, and no longer can Republicans in Northern Virginia just dance a few commercials in front of us, and expect that to make up for Iraq, Katrina, and all the other failures they have created.  Bill Clinton said that Democrats win when people think.  People seem to be thinking, and seem to be looking at the Democrats.  Like I said, when you have GOOD CANDIDATES, the more people listen to them, the better.  The more Jim Webb, Andy Hurst, and Judy Feder meet people, the more votes they will get.

You are right about that!  The census bureau updated it's web site and the demographic canges are favorable for Dems.  The two fastest growing metro areas are NOVA/Winchester and Charlottesville.  Those NOVA numbers should be especially worrisome to the right wingers of the state.  Not only are the liberal regions growing while the population remains stagnet around the conservative rural areas, the racial make up of Virginia is becoming increasingly diverse.  The Black percentage jumped from 19.6% in 2004 to 19.9% in 2005.  Hispanics are up to 5.7% and Asians are up to 4.4%. The site is www.quickfacts.census.gov

Great news.  I'm normally very skeptical of Zogby's polling, for example he showed VA within about 4-5 points for the Dems in the last Presidential election, when the margin ended up being much greater in the end.  But this shows that we are at least in play, and that's excellent, very encouraging!

Kerry pulled all his resources out of Virginia several weeks before the election.  When was the Zogby poll taken?  Before or after that?

was taken in August of 2004.  Kerry pulled out from VA a little while later.  I still rip my hair out over that.

and then they pull out like that, and you wonder what the point is.  Well, the point is that it hurts candidates downticket, I guess, but still the temptation is to just sit back and relax instead of canvassing.

Oh that's right we don't know!

As I recall election night the exit polling (which has always been very accurate -within 1% of the actual vote dating back to Trumen) was showing Virginia within 1%.  At 7:30 pm, the news was saying VA was "too close to call."  This was an improvement over the 3% Bush favored polls on election eve.

For some reason it was only for this Bush election that the exit polling and ever other poll were so "wrong," even though the techniques used were tried and tested since 1948.  Very strange.

This morning on my way in to work I saw a "Allen for Senate" bumber sticker on the back of a car that also had a "W04" oval sticker.  I laughed and laughed and laughed as I passed the car with my "Jim Webb" sticker.  I laughed because I know we are going to completely crush Allen in the voting booths on November 7th, despite Allen's massive TV campaign of lies.

I mean jesus, they're the last remnant of the 35% that still likes Bush.  I've even seen one sticker that says: "Kerry lost.  Take off the sticker."  To which my immediate retort was "first you take of your Bush sticker."

I believe the recent data in the graph - but who the hell was asking about Webb last August?  Did I miss something completely?  Has Webb been in the polls since then?

...maybe that was "generic Democrat," not Webb, given that Webb didn't mention he was interested in running until late October 2005.

In your Update, you mentioned vulnerable incumbents in state races due to the WaPo article about "regrouping" Republicans.  Don't forget the most vulnerable of them all--Jeannemarie Devolites Davis!!

Also, let's bring it down to the House of Delegates level--Vince Callahan, David Albo, Tim Hugo, Michelle McQuigg, and Jeff Frederick are ALL sitting ducks, as far as I'm concerned.  Also, Tom Rust's seat, once he moves on, is completely there for the taking by Dems...

Thanks.

Wahoo! Great news! Polls can always be a tad misleading because a lot of the people who'd vote Democratic aren't represented in them so tagging on a couple percentage points wouldn't hurt.

We need cash, and this poll makes Virginia look winnable.  Democrats across the country should be willing to help Webb win this ne.  It's taking out two birds with one stone; removing a nuisance in the Senate and preventing one in the White House.

You hear that, Schumer?  How about you, Reid?  You have a candidate who can win in Virginia!  How about tossing us some greenbacks, and we'll remove that Cowboy-shaped thorn in your side for you?

of this race on Harball tonight.  They mentioned how the Iraq war was going to make it more difficult for a Republican to get re-elected, and they mentioned Allen in particular.  They mentioned (and showed) Webb, and said that the race was close.

Every little bit helps....

Did you ever notice that in NOVA, where I visited often in the months before and after the 2004 election, sprouted more "W" signs after the election.  Beforehand, Kerry stickers outnumbered Bush ones.  After the "selection," all of a sudden the W ovals spread like crazy. 

Look at the historical polling.  This same poll back in March only had Allen with a 7%+ lead over an unnamed Democrat.  Every other poll had Allen with a huge lead at that point.  While any tightening is good, the March poll makes me question the methodology.

Your negative shtick is getting old.

I am pushing for a Webb victory as much as anyone--what VA.Walter says is right though.  The apples-to-apples is Zogby March versus Zogby June; not Rasmussen June versus Zogby June. 

Both polls have different built in assumptions and I'm sure different methodology for polling.  Both results (Zogby and Rasmussen) are within each other's range--which suggests that neither is wildly off-the-mark.  The bottom line is that Webb is pulling low 40s, Allen is in the high 40s to just above 50. 

Still not bad when you consider that Webb hasn't had much visibility.  Also, both polls show that Allen's support is soft.  Under normal circumstances an incumbent should be in the mid-50s or above range at this point. 

I don't think Zogby interactive polls are that credible either, but the upward trendline from this poll and Rasmussen's has been good for Webb.

My criticism of Va Walter has more to do with his past comments that have consistently been negative about Webb. He/she is always quick to criticize Webb. I actually feel he's an Allen supporter and is just here to sow negativity on this blog.

You can't compare Rasmussen to Zogby like that.  Rasmussen had Kaine down 6 in June, and Webb down 10.  Makes sense, Allen is a almost-popular incumbant.  What's important to note here is that Webb is starting to do better, and gaining quickly.

We need Webb's military influence down here at the Beach.  Bring out his military supporters.  Talk up his tax-cut plan.  He can easily win the second with that kind of support and message.

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