According to the real UVA Political Science Prof. Larry Sabato, as opposed to "Not Larry Sabato" of Virginia blogosphere fame, Jerry Kilgore needs to win by a landslide next Tuesday. According to Sabato, quoted in today's Washington Times, "If [Kilgore] can't clear 80 percent, he's in trouble." Well, that's certainly setting the bar high for ol' Jerry Boy.Also quoted in the Times article is GMU Public Policy Prof. Mark J. Rozell. According to Rozell, Fitch could embarrass Kilgore merely "by doing better than expected," even though "It's a no-brainer in terms of who is going to win."
So, it looks like it's all coming down to beating expectations for Jerry Kilgore. If, let's say, Kilgore wins by only 60%-40% or 65%-35%, it will probably be taken as a major sign of trouble down the road. If Kilgore wins with between 70% and 80% of the vote, it will probably be seen as a mediocre, nothing-to-write-home-about showing. Only if Kilgore wins overwhelmingly, with 80% or more of the vote, will the pundits be talking about how the Republicans are "unified" behind Kilgore.
And of course we all care deeply about what the pundits think, right? Almost as much as we care about what bloggers think! Heh.