Based on a recent poll carried out for the Judy Feder Congressional campaign (10th Congressional District), Frank Wolf's in big trouble. Here are excerpts from a memo to the Feder campaign from Pete Brodnitz, Principal of Benenson Strategy Group and polling consultant to both Governor Kaine and Congressman Boucher:
"1) Low Wolf Re-Elect. Less than half of his constituents +óGé¼GÇ£ 40% -- say they would currently vote to re-elect Wolf. This is a remarkably low figure for a 28 year incumbent. Indeed, after voters are presented with basic profiles of Wolf and Democrat Judy Feder, Feder holds Wolf to just above 50%. After voters hear additional arguments for why Feder is a preferable candidate, Feder leads by 5%.2) Bush is a drag. The political environment is weighing against Wolf +óGé¼GÇ£ President Bush is facing a 58% negative job rating in the district, with 44% of the electorate saying they STRONGLY disapprove of his performance.
3) Mood for Change. Voters believe the country and region are on the wrong track. By a whopping 68% to 24%, people in Virginia+óGé¼Gäós 10th Congressional District believe the country is on the wrong track.
4) Virginia Democrats are strong. While a majority of district voters regard President Bush unfavorably (43% are favorable, 55% unfavorable), both former Governor Warner (71% favorable) and Governor Kaine (57% favorable) have widespread support in the district.
As if that's not bad enough for Wolf, according to Brodnitz the news gets worse.
After respondents were read a series of reasons why Feder would be a better Representative for the district than Wolf, Feder took a 46% to 41% lead over Wolf. This result underscores the extent to which Wolf is vulnerable this year.
In other words, if Judy Feder has the resources to get the word out about Frank Wolf, she has a great chance of beating him this year. So please give generously to Judy Feder's campaign. Feder has already raised $50,000 of its $60,000 goal for June; let's help them blow that $60,000 goal away. Thanks!
[UPDATE: A friend pointed out to me that Wolf has some serious 'splainin' to do about his votes against disabled veterans during a war! Check this out by the Disabled American Veterans (DAV); Wolf voted against Veterans' interests 10 out of 12 times according to the DAV's scorecard. Ouch.]
Reasons to support any opponent to Wolf:
1) he does not respond to emails, US Postal Mail, nor even registered letters from voters in his own district - not even to politely say he disagrees
2) he voted against veterans benefits several times
3) he voted for the war on Iraq, against troop benefits and protections, for tax credits for oil companies, against the environment on nearly every opportunity
4) he has not supported calls for Department of Peace (though he did meet and listen to a group of voters on that issue - apparently organized groups get his attention)
5) he backs Bush all the time with no checks and no balances, executive authority unfettered by any congressional oversite
6) he's had 28 years to ossify and grow complacent in his lobbyist support so he no longer pays attention to his own voters
Reasons to support Judy Feder in particular:
1) she strongly supports public education, the great leveler of the playing field in our "open-market" world
2) she says she will use her congressional authority to help challenge any president in office and make them observe the limits to executive power (as congress should be doing now)
3) she has integrity and is approachable and responsive, while this may not last for decades after she is in office, it is at least a fresh start
4) as a progressive in a VERY conservative district, she will be forced to be moderate, and to she'll have to listen to her opposition (unlike her predecessor who can ignore progressives with impunity).
5) smarter growth to shrink the need for everyone using cars for every commute, ethanol policy to make it more available at more pumps, higher CAFE standards
6) getting out of Iraq over time
7) healthcare
8) taking care of our veterans
9) fiscal responsibility (now imagine that, Democrats talking about fiscal responsibility and being trusted on it more than Republicans, who would have thought it possible)...
Awesome news!!!
It means nothing
A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning. The term is also sometimes used incorrectly to refer to legitimate polls which test political messages, some of which may be negative.
The boldfaced text ("legitimate polls which test political messages") is exactly what we're talking about here. It takes place all the time. I know that the leaders of the Draft Wesley Clark movement had Zogby do something almost identical to this. Basically, the idea is to see what would happen to election results if the relatively unknown challenger's message gets out effectively. That's the whole point here: if Judy Feder gets her message out, she has a great chance of beating Frank Wolf. That's all. No "push poll" or anything else nefarious.
We tell people good things about Judy for about 10-15 questions, then 10-15 questions saying bad things about Wolf, then ask who they would vote for.
If you can't win by more than 5 after that, you are in trouble.
TC, you of all people should know the difference between a push poll, and a legitimate information-persuasion poll. Anyone who's ever worked on polling knows these are legitimate.
What Frankie should REALLY be nervous about is the fact that NO candidate descriptions or outlines were even necessary, and Wolfie was barely at 50%. That's remarkable.
Bye bye Frankie, bye bye Georgie, bye bye Tommie, and bye bye Thelmie!