Yeah, I know, it's a bad pun, like the title of the movie, "Good Will Hunting." Unfortunately, I love puns -- the worse the better, if you know what I mean -- so "Good Bayh" it is, at least for today. Sorry.Anyway, the point of this blog entry is that the 2008 Presidential field already is shaping up fast, and it looks increasingly like Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana is running. Last night, at the Indiana Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner, "Bayh 08" signs reportedly filled the room, while the speaker introducing him -- U.S. Representative Julia Carson (D-IN), predicted that Bayh would be the country's next President.
So, who is Evan Bayh, and who is his competition? First, it is important to mention that Evan Bayh is the son of legendary liberal Indiana Senator, Birch Bayh. Perhaps this pedigree helps explain the fact that, for someone not yet 50 years old, Evan Bayh already has served 10 years as governor of Indiana and over 6 years in the U.S. Senate. Interestingly, he has a law degree from the University of Virginia, meaning that he has ties to our state.
Ideologically, Bayh is a signficantly more conservative than his father by almost any measure. A member of the Senate Centrist Coalition, Bayh receives a 70% rating from the ultra-conservative John Birch Society, believe it or not, just 10 points lower than George Allen and John Warner. This may be a bit of an aberration, however, as Bayh receives just a 20% rating from the American Conservative Union, far below John Warner's 72% rating and George Allen's 92%.
Here are some other key interest group ratings for Bayh:
*A 60% positive rating from USA Engage, a pro-trade organization
*65% from the pro-business US Chamber of Commerce
*78% from the Center for Security Policy, a group promoting "peace through American strength"
*A 33% from Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition, which seems low but is actually the second-highest rating for a Democratic Senator, behind Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
*On the other hand, Bayh gets a 90% positive rating from Americans for Democratic Action, "America's oldest independent liberal lobbying organization."
*Bayh receives a 100% rating from the National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League (NARAL), another 100% from the AFL-CIO, and several other major unions, and an 80% rating from the pro-environment League of Conservation Voters
*On gun issues, Bayh gets a low, 8% rating from the National Rifle Association (NRA), but a solid 77% from the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence.
The bottom line is that Evan Bayh is a (strongly) pro-labor, (strongly) pro-abortion rights, (generally) pro-environment, (generally) pro-trade, (generally) pro-gun-control, (generally) pro-defense, (generally) pro-business, centrist Democrat.
As far as competition is concerned, Bayh's got plenty. In fact, according to today's New Hampshire Union Leader, "more than 20 contenders ? Democrats and Republicans alike ? already are jockeying for position, some making pilgrimages to Iowa and New Hampshire and others piecing together the initial hints of a campaign organization."
On the Democratic side, the Union Leader focuses on four leading candidates besides Bayh: New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Massachussetts Sen. John Kerry, and Virgina's own Gov. Mark Warner. In addition, the Union Leader mentions Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, Tennesse Gov. Phil Bredesen, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack.
A long list, no doubt about it, but as the Union Leader points out, with no incumbent or obvious successor to President Bush and Vice President Cheney, "The 2008 Presidential campaign promises to be the most wide-open contest in more than half a century."
I suppose that this is nirvana for us political junkies, hell for everyone else. What's most amazing is that the next Presidential race has already started, 3 1/2 years before Americans actually go to the polls in November 2008. For the moment, though, I say "Good Bayh" to all that: we've got a governor to elect here in Virginia, as well as a primary in just 10 days. Plenty of time to think about 2008 later, after we elect Tim Kaine our governor in a few more months.