Webb's "Hybrid" Strategy to Beat George Allen
By: Lowell
Published On: 6/15/2006 2:40:15 PM
One of my favorite writers, Chris Cillizza, has yet ANOTHER excellent analysis over at his Washington Post blog, "The Fix." This time, it's about how Jim Webb can beat George Allen. I've been thinking about this a lot myself, and concluded a couple months ago that Webb needs to run a hybrid campaign between what Tim Kaine did in 2005 - urban/suburban/exurban - and what Mark Warner did in 2001 - heavier rural emphasis than Kaine. Is this possible? Absolutely! Here's Chris Cillizza:
Jarding, who was intimately involved in Mark Warner's gubernatorial victory in 2001, said Webb can win the Senate race because he will create a hybrid between the rural strategy that led to the Warner win and Gov. Tim Kaine's strength in previous Republican strongholds in the outer Northern Virginia suburbs of Fairfax and Loudoun counties.
Hey, that Jarding guy's pretty damn smart, coming to the same conclusion I did, eh? :) Ha.
Seriously, though, here's the thing with Jim Webb - and with Jarding's "hybrid" strategy - that's so great. As a Democrat, he's obviously going to do well in traditionally Democratic areas, plus areas turning "blue" (Loudoun, Prince William). That was Tim Kaine's winning strategy. In addition, given Webb's rural/SWVA roots, he can do quite well in that part of the state. That was Mark Warner's winning strategy. Finally, given Webb's military and former Republican background, he can do great among veterans and other military and also moderate Republicans dissatisfied with the Bush Administration. That was neither Warner nor Kaine's strategy, so that's a net plus for Webb.
In other words, on PAPER at least, Jim Webb can combine the best of both worlds - Mark Warner's AND Tim Kaine's winning strategies - and add in strengths of his own to boot. If he does that, he will win big this November, possibly even bigger than Kaine beat Kilgore. However, as Cillizza points out:
...[Webb] has to prove he can raise the money to compete against Allen, a worry given the whispers we hear about Webb's disinterest in dialing for dollars. Then there's Allen's charisma on the campaign trail compared with Webb, who still seems to be getting used to the backslapping performances demanded of any political candidate.
Yeah, you gotta raise money, you gotta kiss babies, and you gotta kiss ass to be elected these days. Maybe that's always been the case. And George "California Cowboy" Allen - despite being a damn bad Senator - is damn good at all those things, no question. Unfortunately, raising money, kissing babies and kissing ass don't make you any less "bored" in the Senate, any less of a Bush 97% rubberstamp, or any less of an intellectual/policy lightweight. And in the case of George Allen, "less" is most certainly not "more."
The question is, can Jim Webb get the money and make the connection with Virginia voters that Mark Warner did and that Tim Kaine did? If so, he'll win big time in November. If not, he won't. No matter what strategy he follows, hybrid or otherwise.
Comments
Well, whether he can or not remains to be seen (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 2:54:47 PM)
But I know he and we will try our best to get it done.
Different situation... (Steven J. Berke - 6/15/2006 3:10:42 PM)
... in that because of the Virginia Constitution, neither Mark Warner nor Tim Kaine had to face an incumbent. And Mark Warner was running to succeed a very unpopular incumbent Republican, while Kaine was running to succeed a very popular incumbent Democrat. George Allen is not quite as popular as Mark Warner was and is (let alone John Warner), but he is not detested the way Jim Gilmore was when he wound up his term (having royally screwed up the state's finances. It almost always is an uphill fight against an incumbent (unless he's buried himself like Robb did before 2000 and Rick Santorum has done--we aren't that lucky) and this will be no exception.
If we are going (ESB - 6/15/2006 3:13:17 PM)
to beat an incumbent Senator, we need to pick apart his voting record the way the Republicans did with Kerry in 2004. Find every single time hes changed his position, voted against popular programs, etc, and run that into the ground.
Definitely. And it shouldn't be too hard with Allen. (Lowell - 6/15/2006 3:16:15 PM)
Everybody, please start researching and post whatever you find here at RK. Or, send me an email at lowell@raisingkaine.com
Thanks.
Good points, however.... (Lowell - 6/15/2006 3:15:11 PM)
I would point out that when Mark Warner won in 2001, George W. Bush was at 90% approval ratings. Today, he's at 40% in Virginia. Even worse for the Republican Congress. That's a heck of a headwind for Allen to be sailing into.
Also, I would point out that Jim Webb is LOVED by Virginia's Senior Senator, John Warner, another former Secretary of the Navy.
Finally, neither Warner nor Kaine had deep family roots in SWVA like Webb does, nor his war record.
This is going to be VERY interesting!
Will John Warner (ESB - 6/15/2006 3:17:45 PM)
campaign for Allen then, or will he simply endorse him and sit this one out due to what seems like his friendship with
Webb? If he won't campaign actively for Allen, that would be a big blow for him.
Unless Allen is convicted of a felony... (thegools - 6/15/2006 9:24:46 PM)
we can expect John Warner to endorse Allen for party reasons. We will see if he actively campaigns for him. Let's hope not. We could use the integrity of Warner and Webb in the Senate.
I have no doubt Warner will at least endorse Allen. (ESB - 6/15/2006 9:29:20 PM)
However, if he doesn't actively campaign for him, its a huge plus.
And Im sure everyone over in Hampton Roads wouldn't mind having two former secretaries of the navy representing them in the Senate. It will sure make holding onto those bases very easy.
Strategy is One Component (David M - 6/15/2006 3:41:43 PM)
and Jim Webb is the other. With less than four months in the primary race, Webb was able to gather over 3,000 volunteers to his campaign. His charisma and charm is understated and this is what makes him appealing to those who are tired of the smarmy baby-kissers. Webb already has rock star appeal among Virginia voters who are starving for True Leadership, which Webb has in spades.
Webb has a presence and a larger than life story that will cast a shadow over Little Boy George. Building the narrative and contrasting them are the important thing here.
Also, as stated on earlier posts, from the debate on Hardball last night, we can see that Allen's brain (should Dick Wadhams be called Karl Rove's Mini-me?) has already decided on parsing all of Webb's previous statements and trying to cast him as a flip-flopper. (Wonder where they got that strategy?) If we thought Miller's mail was bad...just wait! Since Allen voted 96-97% with George Bush, the only question we have to ask is does this guy have the ability for independent thought, or does he go directly to the RNC for talking points?
Agree with Lowell that this will be an interesting race, possibly historic. I am sooooo glad that I am a Democrat.
You know (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 3:48:38 PM)
I think it is kind of off putting to be kissing babies all over the place.
Huh!!! (David M - 6/15/2006 3:54:27 PM)
Can you imagine the psychic scars that are on all those babies that have been kissed during all the campaigns in history?
Right! (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 3:58:36 PM)
Like if you found out 20 years from now that you had been kissed by the worst president ever, would you kill yourself?
Who (David M - 6/15/2006 6:30:19 PM)
would that be?
Adolph Hitler (thegools - 6/15/2006 9:43:55 PM)
I once talked to a woman who as a little girl, had met Adolph Hitler a some town event. She said all the children were lined up so that the Fuehrer could come and shake hands and say hello to each.
I don't think she killed herself after I talked to her, but I could be wrong. It seemed more like a novelty story than anything else. She was just a kid after all.
So my joke didn't get taken as one then? (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 10:05:56 PM)
I knew you were joking... (thegools - 6/15/2006 10:17:05 PM)
Your comment just made me think of someone who actually did meet a pretty aweful person.
I met another guy, a German war hero, who, as a young soldier, met the dictator three times-each time he received the Reich's highest medal for valor. I had a very interesting conversation with him.
Cool. (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 10:33:08 PM)
Just wasn't sure if I went too far for your tatses-I tend to do that sometimes.
As to what you said; actually, I can totally understand. Sometimes, I wonder what I would do if I had the opportunity to shake hands with a powerful figure I disliked and did not agree with.
And I realize I definitely wouldn't kill myself.
I also wouldn't kiss them. :)
NLP (David M - 6/15/2006 11:10:19 PM)
Interesting tactic...
Keep in mind... (Left Wing - 6/15/2006 4:21:21 PM)
...Warner won less than two months after 9/11. We were bombarded with TV Ads of America's Mayor Rudy Guilliani endorsing Earley.
Warner, Kaine, Warner and Webb (Josh - 6/15/2006 3:37:00 PM)
We Believe in Democracy and universal opportunity. We believe in fair markets, sustainable growth, integrated security, and leading the world by example. We belive in healthy families, strong communities and responsible government.
America Believes in these things, Republicans don't. Democrats provide moral leadership, Republicans can't govern. That's why Virginia needs Jim Webb, and why 2006 will serve as a stinging rebuke to George Bush, George Allen and the right-wing extremists who now control the republican party.
Webb will add the moderate wisdom of a Senator John Warner (also a former Navy Secretary), to the Responsible leadership and rural renaissance provided by Tim Kaine and Mark Warner respectively.
Webb is the the tip of the tidal wave that gives Virginia and America an enduring Democratic Majority.
One more thing to think about.. (sndeak - 6/15/2006 4:23:45 PM)
That !#%$! Virginia constitutional amemdment on gay marriage. The R's have been successful at leveraging this in 11 states to help a republican candidate.
As always, it's gonna be all about turnout. The Dems need to be excited about voting for Webb.
well (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 4:26:26 PM)
our side needs to keep reminding EVERYONE that the amendment ruins ALL marriage, not just gay marriage.
Phucking wedge issues....
Its all about how the issue is cast. (ESB - 6/15/2006 4:31:29 PM)
We should point out that gay marriage is *already* illegal under law in Virginia. The constitutional amendment is just a superfulous waste designed to boost turn out for Allen's extreme base. Amending a Constitution is not to be undertaken lightly for political reasons. This is how we should cast the issue.
The gay marriage (Eric - 6/15/2006 7:50:34 PM)
amendment will be used to try to bring out the religious right as it has before. I completely agree with that point.
But I disagree, to a point, about the turnout. I think Jim Webb brings a new dynamic to the race - something that's been missing in recent Democratic candidates. I'm not thinking it's all about GOTV because Webb can win over many moderate Republicans, Reagan Democrats, and Progressives.
Sure, there's always a turnout aspect, but this time we need to be going after votes that haven't been ours for a long time. During recent elections I've grown tired of talking about how to get our party out more than they get their party out.
Screw that - let's go win over a chunk of the votes they've been counting on for years. Let them bring out the gay marriage amendment voters while we bring their moderates over to Webb.
The elephant in the room (JennyE - 6/15/2006 8:21:28 PM)
The marriage amendment must be handled very skillfully by the Webb team. I trust they will.
Webb has already done a lot of the work (Rebecca - 6/15/2006 5:09:42 PM)
Don't forget that Webb has already done of lot of the campaigning work in Northern Virginia to win the primary. Now he can look at the parts of the state where Miller was strong and concentrate on those as well as areas where there are independents and Reagan Democrats.
I'd like to suggest that those of us who voted for Webb reach out to Miller supporters and gently make our case for Webb. I'm sure they are feeling somewhat bruised from the primary.
COMMENT HIDDEN (votedem - 6/16/2006 5:24:29 AM)
Thanks! (phriendlyjaime - 6/16/2006 7:55:21 AM)
Please change your handle to "voteselfish" then.
By the way... (phriendlyjaime - 6/16/2006 7:59:47 AM)
Just to keep a handle on things:
Username: votedem
PersonId: 1552
Created: June 16, 2006 at 03:09:35 MST
Facts (snolan - 6/16/2006 8:55:09 AM)
Man, nothing kills an argument like cold, hard facts.
Smile - it keeps people wondering what you are up to.