U.S. Senate Race:
Jim Webb and a very motivated grass-roots/net-roots campaign completely trounce George Allen with 64% of the vote despite only raising 1/3rd the money!
Much more follows...
Congressional Districts:
1st CD: Shawn O'Donnell squeeks a narrow upset victory over Jo Ann Davis (52%/46%) with nearly 2% voting for Gail Parker.
2nd CD: Phil Kellam crushes incumbent Thelma Drake with 74% of the vote and massive funding from all over the nation. Even fellow Republicans come out against Drake with Kellam endorsements.
5th CD: Al Weed narrowly defeats Virgil Goode (52%/48%) after financing scandals and corruption charges shake up Goode's campaign.
8th CD: Jim Moran narrowly defeats challenger Tom O'Donoghue (53%/47%) forcing many to rethink conventional wisdom on urban voting patterns.
9th CD: Rick Boucher easily holds onto his seat as Carrico fails to mount any real challenge (68%/32%).
10th CD: Judy Feder beats the odds and defeats Frank Wolf (52%/46%) with Bill Wood capturing 2% of the vote.
11th CD: Andy Hurst and Tom Davis are neck and neck a full week after the election (49%/49%) until it is revealed that Diebold touch screen machines are actively skewing the election .05% in favor of all Republican candidates! Tom Davis graciously concedes the race at that point despite an apparent slight lead, and soundly attackes the perpetrators of the crime.
And here's the kicker: the proposed amendment to the constitution is rejected by 56% of the voters in Virginia.
That's +5 seats in the House, and +1 seat in the Senate and a firm rejection of restricting people's rights.
Ok - perhaps it is more of a fantasy than a prediction... but wouldn't it be sweet?
I hope Webb gets 53%, it worked form him last time.
Yes - I think Webb will do even better with even less than I predicted a little over a month ago. I have faith in American voters more faith than the past several elections. People are pissed and realizing they can do something about it.
In other races, my predictions remain the same except:
5th CD: Al Weed narrowly defeats Virgil Goode (50%/49%), revised as Goode is proving tougher than expected in the face of corruption scandals and that district is overwhelmingly conservative to a fault.
8th CD: After looking more closely at Tom O'Donoghue and his campaign, even Jim Moran's recent controversy will not count much against Jim. Tom just doesn't have what it takes... revised estimate - Moran over O'Donoghue (67%/32%).
9th CD: Rick Boucher easily holds onto his seat as Carrico fails to mount any real challenge (78%/22%). Revised because Carrico is a extrmist nutjob and even the conservatives know it.
10th CD: Judy Feder beats the odds and defeats Frank Wolf (53%/45%) with Bill Wood capturing 2% of the vote. Revised because Wolf is not even putting up a fight.
11th CD: Andy Hurst beats Tom Davis cleanly (55%/45%), revised because district 11 is basically in open rebellion against the current federal government... and a fine example they set for us all!
The anti-marriage amendment will be rejected by 58% of the voters in Virginia, including some gay-bashers.
That's still +5 seats in the House, +1 one in the Senate and an even firmer rejection of resticting people's rights and interfering in families.
I am not smoking anything (I don't smoke at all); it's been over 24 hours since I had alcohol of any sort (lovely beer bash at work yesterday); and I am in full posession of my sanity (if a little distracted by the cat who wants to be fed).
I just see Americans waking up to their rights and responsibilities, and we are all responsible for this current government and we are tired of it, and willing to make a change.
The sad news: Virginia will not even be the biggest success story in November, we'll be small potatoes when compared to similar revolutions going on all over the country (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and even Florida).
However, I am surprised that Davis (11th) jumped into the gaff by supporting Allen's sorry assed excuse, and this means Davis will be dragged down with Allen. New 11th CD prediction: 60/40 for Hurst. Go Andy!
Another surprise (to me at least) is that there is a 4th candidate on the ballot in the 10th district. Who knew? Neeraj Nigam and Bill Wood will both attract very little attention, and pull few votes from Wolf (and none at all from Feder). On the other hand, Wolf will probably distance himself from gaffing Allen, and earn some respect from moderates (damn). This will get to be a tighter race: Feder by a slim margin (50/49) with 1% split between the other two candidates.
Now for the sad news - the 5th district race is not going as well as I earlier thought. Goode is likely to be hauled off in handcuffs before voters in that district finally wake up to his corruption. Perhaps they like it that way? Anyways, I think Weed will get close, but lose narrowly to Goode (47/53). That's sad. Please help Weed as much as possible.
7CD: Sadly, Eric Cantor narrowly defeats Jim Nachman (55%/44%) with 1% still voting for Blanton despite his withdrawal.
U.S. Senate Race:
Jim Webb wins with 56% of the votes cast for candidates on the ballot. Had a nightmare that 25% of the total vote was electronically diverted to a write in candidate "System B. Hacked" (yikes).
1st Ballot Question:
59% vote NO to the proposed Marshal/Newman bigotry amendment, and there is astonishing turnout including some voters who vote only on this one issue.
1CD: Sadly Joann Davis wins with 51%, damn!
2CD: Kellam with 58% of the vote.
5CD: Damn, Goode with 53% though it is a real shame.
7CD: Cantor only wins by 55%, Nachman does very well.
8CD: Moran with 67% of the vote.
9CD: Rick Boucher with an easy 78%.
10CD: Judy Feder narrowly squeeks a win with 50%.
11CD: Andy Hurst walks away with 60% of the vote!
Virginia sends +3 Democrats to the House and +1 Democrat to the Senate, and is the first state in the union to reject the bigoted amendments prohibiting gay-marriage (though that is still illegal because our state house is run by morons).