Anyway, today's column essentially asks the questions, "what if they held an election and nobody showed up?" Well, that's what happened Tuesday, particularly outside of Northern Virginia. In Southwest Virginia, turnout was beneath pathetic, down into disgraceful and unconscionable territory. Yeah, I realize that a festival featuring "bubble-gum-blowing, watermelon-seed-spitting and limbo contests" is important, but so is Democracy. And yesterday, in places like Norton, people chose the bubble gum and limbo.
In contrast, NOVA had relatively strong turnout, accounting for 40% of the entire Virginia vote. In Arlington, we had 9% turnout, which is not bad considering that the statewide average was just 3%. Arlington's 9% turnout on Tuesday also compares highly favorably with turnout for last year's Lt. Governor primary, 3.8%. What drove this turnout?
Well, according to Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a senior Webb advisor, "Roanoke-based backcountry strategist" and "mastermind behind Connecticut-born Mark Warner's embrace of NASCAR culture in his run for governor five years ago," the answer was the blogs. Mudcat says that there's "[n]o question about it, the bloggers were driving this." Mudcat also believes that:
..even if Webb cannot match Allen's staggering $7 million campaign kitty, the challenger has shown that he can use old-fashioned grass-roots word of mouth and newfangled Internet campaigning to spread the word about this ex-Republican military man who wants to bring Reagan Democrats back to the party of their youth.
Wow, that's a lot of pressure for us lil' ol' bloggers, if it's true. Of course, there are those who believe that bloggers' influence on this race was highly overrated. And that may very well be true. But not in Mudcat's opinion. And not in Marc Fisher's either:
The only place on the planet where this election was a really exciting big deal was on the blogs that live and breathe Virginia politics, and their enthusiasm was a significant contributor to the somewhat better turnout in broadband-rich Northern Virginia.
So which is it, RK readers? Did blogs help push turnout in NOVA and, as Ben Tribbett declares, represent "the first major election that bloggers have ever won for a candidate" (Jim Webb, in this case)? Or is Virginia Centrist right when he argues, perhaps with tongue firmly planted in cheek, that "bloggers are meaningless?" Or perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle, with heavily trafficked blogs like NLS and RK pushing turnout in NOVA but not in the rest of the state, where apparently alsmot nobody reads blogs?
What do you think? Consider this an open thread to discuss the role of blogs in this Tuesday's election.
[UPDATE: Chap Petersen has his thoughts here. Very perceptive as always...
Webb's potential influence is too important to leave in the hands of a few core Democratic party members. We needed to open up the electability issue and pass it to the people. I think Webb's appeal will be broader in the General, ultimately the negative Miller money machine acted as a foil driving support for Webb down, but those who chose to evaluate the general election know that Webb will defeat Allen in November
Now the question is: How do we extend the Blog’s reach to other parts of the state? I’m not sure that we can; but I believe that those who visit the Blogs can make a huge impact throughout the state by:
Writing the local newspapers throughout the state and contacting their reporters about:
“Webb’s Brigade†of over 3000 volunteers – a true grass roots campaign not before seen in Virginia.
Using the internet (The Webb campaign site) for fund raising.
Articulating Jim’s strengths and positions in Letters to the Editor and on radio “call-in†talk shows.
Articulating George Allen’s failings in Letters to the Editor and on radio “call-in†talk shows.
These are but a few of the things that can be done. Perhaps there are those who could put together Blogs for “Veterans for Webbâ€, “Republicans for Webbâ€, etc. Also, let’s reach out to those Blogs that were pro-Miller. Get them on board.
Just a few thoughts… Thanks.
Thanks to all of them for giving all Virginia Democrats a reason to rally throughout the summer. As much as this campaign was driven by the integrity and courage of Jim Webb, it was also fueled by the tireless efforts of Raising Kaine to keep us all informed on the current breaking news related to all the important primary issues.
I have to say I tried joining the meetup.com stuff offered by James Socas and other candidates in 2004, and it was a miserable failure. Meetup.com was an email address harvesting scheme and it spammed the snot out of my addresses, the candidates never showed up and most of the meetups were cancelled.
Great concept, needs work...
I am convinced that the candidate's own websites can function as the meetup coordination center for each campaign.
Someone is trying an experiment with a Webb campaign google group - it will be interesting to see how that works.
Sharpest dissection tools: The one's that stayed in the box until after it was all over.
Biggest Virginia Democrat: Don McEachin. How tall is that guy?
Best post-primary advice: Alice Marshall "on to victory."
Three biggest factors in the primary:
** Webb's record and character
** Miller's negative mail and calls
** Virginia blogs
Also, when we do formal interviews of the candidates and post them it is very helpful. I interviewed both Hurst and Longmyer using the same questions and posted both interviews on the DFa Fairfax site. (www.dfa-farifax.com)
I'm sure there is more we can do. I am looking into getting films with an alternative message out for public showing. We need to think outside the box to get the progressive message out.
This proves that money isn't everything, although it helps.
To me, the blogosphere has proven it can identify and encourage good candidates, help refine some issues, create passion among the universe of its members and certainly help in a primary. The great unanswered question is whether the blogosphere can truly influence a statewide race (especially one where the blogosphere supports the underdog).
Personally, I doubt the blogosphere (as it exists today) can truly impact a race like the Allen-Webb one. At least we get to find out in a few months.
Huge impact.
Tim's own blog was marginally interesting, and I think that is a fact of any state-wide campaign, so I am not faulting the writers of that blog. Problem is the area and the scope are too big for a single blog.
Anyone running for U.S. Senate will have the same issue, too big a scope and lack of focus.
House of Delegates, State Senators, U.S. Congress: totally the opposite! The campaign websites of all those candidates should be tightly focused, dynamic communities. That will make or break campaigns of the future.
For the bigger-area races I think we need to have blogs that cover the issues rather than the personal face to face announcements of the candidates.
Because I have been blogging, and reading other blogs, I decided to hold a fund raiser and send out evites and email invitations that got people's attention. I personally know about 8 people who went and voted in the primary because I invited them to a Webb fund-raiser and that reminded them to go vote and find out more about the race.
A couple of people had trouble understanding the evite, and called or stopped me in passing, and they also are getting involved now.
Did my blog help turnout? Probably not.
Did my habit of blogging and activism help, certainly did.
They had a candidate who was actively posting and responding to their questions. They could participate in civic discussions with the campaign staff. They felt they had a stake in the outcome.
That has to be the most effective and powerfully motivating solution I have seen yet (to the problem of voter apathy). We need to copy that format for all local races and figure out a similar recipe for the bigger races (like U.S. Senate), as I doubt that will be as feasible in those large area races.
Given that absolutely no direction came from the campaign itself in terms of suggestions for volunteer activity, I depended on my own experience to do the few things I could do alone -- sending the op-ed from the Roanoke Times to friends, making sure a letter to the editor got in. Still haven't gotten the bumpersticker I ordered months ago... and I gave a sizable chunk of money.
Frankly, I thought the state party's lack of communication with local parties and the public about the primary was shameful. In future, we'll just have to assume no publicity help is coming and plan to run ads ourselves locally (and get free media, like letters to editor and yard signs with the primary date).
Turnout was 11% in Lexington, and better than the statewide average in Rockbridge County. And we're Webb country over here: 3-1 in Lexington, 2-1 in the county.
I've already marked my calendar for the Buena Vista Labor Day parade!
Impressive job over there in Rockbridge and Lexington! I'm very impressed. I'm over in Nelson. Lynchburg is very active, too, and Mark is working like crazy in Cumberland County.
And thanks for all of your other info. This really was a grassroots effort. It wouldn't hurt for some extrovert to talk with Appo and Amherst Dems.