National Journal puts VA-02 in the top-20 hottest House races in the country
By: Dan
Published On: 6/14/2006 8:26:45 PM
6-14-06: One day after Jim Webb+óGé¼Gäós victory, suddenly Virginia+óGé¼Gäós 2nd District has moved up the list of hot Congressional races. While the race between Phil Kellam and incumbent Thelma Drake has been considered a close race, so far it hadn't received much national attention. As of Wednesday, June 14th, it is now ranked #17, jumping 13 places since the last assessment. Is this a coincidence or are people starting to take Virginia Democrats seriously, now that Webb is part of the ticket?
According to the National Journal, they claim that part of the reason for the jump is that Drake wants to challenge Kellam to a debate. We all know that the main reason is Webb. Clearly, after Webb's victory things are looking up for all Virginia Democrats, and Kellam is no exception. Although Kellam+óGé¼Gäós race is the only Virginia race to make the list (of 50), we may see Webb give a boost to other races in the state in coming weeks. (Are Feder, Hurst, or Weed next?).
The National Journal has not updated its Senate rankings since Webb emerged as the victor, but the Senate race, currently ranked 14th on their list, is sure to move up once they revise their rankings in the next week or so.
SOURCE: National Journal
Comments
a comment on this race (teacherken - 6/14/2006 9:49:21 PM)
someone who works for the organization (National Journal) whom I cannot identify but who is quite astute at analyzing Congressional races told me last night that this race is over, Drake is going down and she knows it. Take it for what it is worth.
I doubt the race is over (Dan - 6/14/2006 10:03:30 PM)
What is important is that we tout this race, and make SURE we win. Remember, out of 13 Congressmen in Virginia, only 3 are Democrats. After Novemeber, we need to have AT LEAST 4. That is up to all of us.
Webb's impact (sharon f - 6/14/2006 10:39:24 PM)
Let the legacy of the first Democrat primary since 1994 pull us into action. We cannot turn the corner if we do not do our part.
Kellam v. Drake debate (Susan Mariner - 6/14/2006 10:45:17 PM)
Happening this Saturday at the library branch near my house. I'll be there.
GO PHIL!
Serious question for you? (va.walter - 6/15/2006 10:44:57 AM)
If the Allen-Webb race is going to move up, which races do you see moving down? Have to think Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, NJ, Washington, Maryland and Tennessee will stay ahead of Virginia for some time. I can see Arizona and Michigan slipping behind Virginia (maybe) and possibly Nebraska (less likely). Also, it's possible that Connecticut could actually move up the list.
Guess the point is that while the race may get tighter it's hard to see it moving far up the NJ rankings and almost impossible to see it making the top 10. Obviously all that could change but that's the view right now.
Michigan, Nebraska, and Maryland (Dan - 6/15/2006 1:01:16 PM)
Michigan, Nebraska, and Maryland might move down the list, maybe even Arizona and Washington State. Nebraska will definitely move down. My guess is that initially the Webb race will be 12th or 13th (11th at best), but could move into the top 10 if the polls in Kyl's race in Arizona continue to be as crappy as they have been for the Democrat. My expectation is that when polls come out, Webb will be down 10-15 points (50-35, 50-40). We'll see.
Maryland ain't going anywhere (va.walter - 6/15/2006 1:44:38 PM)
I agree, as I said in my post, that Michigan and Nebraska could move down. Arizona may be the most likely to move based on the latest polls. My point though is that while this race may tighten any expectation that it will move substantially anytime soon is too optimistic if you ask me.