We've buddied up with our friends at Commonwealth Conservative to bring you the First Annual Primary Election Crystal Ball Contest![Update: 6/6/2005 6:22PM:] I'm moving this to the top of the page in order to keep the entries coming in. Also, I wasn't kidding when I said one entry per person! I've deleted "double dippers" and will continue to do so.
The rules are simple:
1) You must make a prediction for all four statewide primary races.
2) You have until midnight on June 12th to do so.
3) Entries must be made on this thread or on the designated thread on Va Conservative.
4) Round your entries to the nearest whole percent.
5) The actual election results will be rounded to the nearest whole percent before being compared to the contest entries.
6) The individual whose total error is off the least wins ("total error" is defined in the box below.
7) One entry per person, but anyone is welcome to participate, including bloggers on this site and on Virginia Conservative, candidates for office, their staffers, volunteers, and relatives.
8) Participants who fail to provide a valid email address are disqualified, as are those who make more than one entry.
9) Winner wins bragging rights.
10) Folks who particpate in the contest are encouraged to include their prediction for the 45th district House of Delegates Democratic Primary. This will be used as a tiebreaker, if needed.
11) Questions should be emailed to me.
12) The decision of the judges, namely Sam Penney of RaisingKaine.com and John Behan of Virginia Conservative, is final. Live with it.
Total Error Example:
Sally sends in:
Kilgore 60 Fitch 40
Bolling 55 Connaughton 45
McDonnell 52 Baril 48
Petersen 35 Puckett 30 Baskerville 25 Byrne 10Fred sends in:
Fitch 52 Kilgore 48
Bolling 60 Connaughton 40
Baril 57 McDonnell 43
Petersen 33 Byrne 25 Puckett 22 Baskerville 20If the actual results are:
Kilgore 60 Fitch 40
Bolling 60 Connaughton 40
Baril 51 McDonnell 49
Petersen 35 Baskerville 30 Puckett 25 Byrne 10Then Sally would be off by 0 + 0 + 5 + 5 + 3 + 3 + 0 + 5 + 5 + 0 = 26
And Fred would be off by 12 + 12 + 0 + 0 + 6 + 6 + 2 + 10 + 3 + 15 = 66
Sally Wins.
Good Luck!